Good morn’n, Patron ☕️.  Another week, another update.  Let’s do it.

As discussed last Mon, the PNW is in an "on/off" type of wet period, with systems moving onshore with fairly consistent frequency; that will continue for another work week.  So, expect a short break in the rainfall this evening and into Tue, before the next system arrives to wet the pavement on Wed.  Showers Thu, with more steady rain arriving Fri to get the last day of the week started with a drip.  

Dry Break.  Right now, models suggest a decent January weekend on the way.  Yep.  A short period of dry weather is possible, starting sometime on Saturday.  Sunday looks to be a ’spring tease’ type of day, with mild temps (upper 50s!).  For Oregon, the break should continue through Tue Jan 29; Patrons in NW WA, southwest BC can expect the chance for showers to return on Mon Jan 28.  Temps will remain very mild.  By Wed, rain will return across the entire region and also begin to hit Calif.  It looks wet to end January and get February started.  Late Thu or Fri it could be rather blustery.

The weekend of Feb 3,4 is trending cooler & drier in the PNW; blustery & quite wet in CA, with southern CA potentially hit by a strong, localized flooding, type storm.  We’ll see.

Colder continental air will begin to influence the PNW as the first full week of February gets underway.  No, this is not currently modeled as an Arctic event like last time, just an offshore, cold-dry-air-flow from the PNW interior.  Frosts possible, should the sky clear in your location.  It could hold this way through the entire week.  

Remnants of the Arctic Front remain, mostly as piles of snow/ice, although there are cold spots east of the Cascades (normal) and near the Gaps (Fraser & Columbia).   Refill your Mug and see what the balance of January holds in the weather department.

Good news for the remainder of January —>>  mild & wet.  Most of the rain fields will move in from the west-to-northwest, which will keep temperatures mild for January.  The systems are going to be 'spaced out' and are not modeled to be super wet.  Therefore, we can expect 12-24 hr breaks in the rainfall, with a longer stretch of dry likely in the Jan 31 through Feb 2 period.  Please note: NW WA & southern BC will get the brunt of the rainfall, although no flooding issues are currently charting.  

There will be the normal cold air mass pooling over Alaska & the Yukon for the rest of January, but right now, we do not see another movement into the PNW through at least Feb 4, or longer.

Nature will send us one more shot of winter before the thaw.  Plenty of sleet on roads, walkways and roofs around the region, esp western OR.  Grab your Mug for the discussion about our ‘glazed exit’ out of this winter event.

No change today & tonight.  Temps will remain below freezing.  A strong east wind out of the Columbia Gorge will pick up again tomorrow, as a warm system moves into the PNW from the southwest.  We all know the drill - as our heavy, cold ‘Arctic air’ sits at the surface, and warm, wet air moves overhead, we get FREEZING RAIN.  That will be the issue on Tuesday.  It will hit southern areas of the Willamette Valley first, then move north.  

A glazed surface will be deposited on the sleet already in place, and begin to weigh-down limbs, etc as the freezing rain continues.  Warmer air will eventually work its way to the surface, with plain ole’ NW rain wrapping up this storm overnight Tue or early Wed.  Dry winter event in much of western WA, to date.  Patrons north in WA will have longer to wait to get out of the cold air, as the system moves north, outflow winds from the Fraser Gap (and over the Cascade passes) will continue to freeze the rain at the surface.  Whatcom County likely to get SNOW first, then freezing rain before all rain.  Patience.  This is will be a glazed exit out of the current winter episode.

Second Half:  Rain later Wed with on/off rain and showers arriving almost daily through the end of this week, the coming weekend, and on through the end of January.  Mountain snow, at times.  The region’s snowpack has greatly improved during this winter episode.

Ponder Point.  Near the end of January, another super-cold Yukon High Dome may form.  We’ll watch this for movement in our direction.  We hope it will remain bottled-up away from the PNW. Still, it warrants a watch & wait approach.  February is coming into view soon, so keep your Mug handy.

Enjoying the occasional 'wee dram' of whisky in the evenings (‘gotta tell a story, you know),

Yep, the freezer has been opened and an Arctic air mass is filling in the PNW quickly.  Plenty of coverage of the current winter event, so we’ll cover a few points that you may already know, and then look forward to the next couple of weeks, per usual.  Hot beverage mornings on the way, for sure.  

To quote Professor Cliff Mass, "This Arctic Front hit like a freight train.”  Yesterday, the Arctic Front pushed down the Fraser River Gap and began “filling” the Puget Sound region with coldness.  Winds gusted over 50 mph, Bellingham temperature dropped from 40F in the morning to 14F by 9 pm, per Cliff’s report.  That Arctic air mass is rapidly filling in east of the Cascades, and should be pushing Arctic air down the Columbia Gorge Gap later this afternoon.  Spokane is -4F this morning; Kennewick 16F.  

Today is likely to be the last day above freezing for much of the entire PNW until Wed next week.  The key issue for this weekend will be SNOW and/or FREEZING RAIN.  Sleet will also be in play.  Models have charted the wet Low moving in from the west to come onshore somewhere between Florence & Newport Saturday evening.  The farther south it tracks, the less precipitation will fall north (Portland, etc), although that area would get snow.  For areas south of Salem - freezing rain, sleet and maybe some snow is possible, depending on where a mid-level “finger” of warm air gets into position (that “finger” melts the snowflakes before hitting the surface as sleet or freezing rain).  Either way, roads and sidewalks are wet, which means ICE as sunset hits tonight with the cold air arriving.  KEEP THAT IN MIND.  Best to hit the stores today for supplies and food.  Moving about outside anywhere from Cottage Grove north will be quite slick.  Patrons in the northern portions of the PNW may miss out on precip, but not the bitter cold.  This event will likely be one of the colder Arctic outbreaks we experience in the PNW.  

Temperatures: lots of variation, depending on snow cover and / or winds.  Overall, nothing above 32F is forecast from later tonight through Wed, as mentioned.  Portions of southern OR should remain above freezing.   Highs will be in the 20s early on, with single digits or low teens possible overnight.  Negative temps across much of the Cascades and eastern basins.  

DRY pattern, which is typical for Arctic Outbreaks around the PNW, will hold for 3-4 days.  Temps will moderate mid-week, as a weak, warmer system clips the PNW on Wed; a stronger system is charted for NW WA area Thu.  Later next week, freezing rain or just plain cold rain for a bit looks more likely than snow, as the air aloft will be relatively warmer than the surface.  Friday Jan 19 currently trends dry, and warmer, with an offshore flow that should minimize any fog issues.

Weekend of Jan 20,21:  wet for most of western WA; NW OR could get a shower or two, but the system will track over WA this time around.  Rain will return to OR on Mon the 22nd, and continue for WA & BC.  Drying out late Tue for a stretch of dry days that could last into the following weekend.  Some solutions indicate rain again on Fri Jan 26.  Fairly mild temps for January.

Back to our current event:  whatever form of precip your specific location receives over the next couple of days, know that it will not thaw out.  Frozen water on roads will make travel challenging; walking, too.  Ice will have to evaporate away, rather than melt.  Be sure unfrozen water is available for any animals outside the next several days, etc etc.  Wind chills (esp in the Gap outflow areas) will be dangerously cold, be sure to cover your skin.   

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Lots of weather action on the way for the next several days.  And, there remains plenty of variance in model projections as to whether or not snow reaches the surface or remains above 500-1,000 ft later this week.  Let’s take a look.  Mug time.

Rain has begun.  Today (Monday) will be damp, with increasing WIND & RAIN intensity overnight into Tue.  A large, deep Low is moving onshore north of Vancouver Island, but it is so deep (visualize a large bowl with the center north of Vancouver Is.) that the WIND FIELD from the storm will impact western OR & WA.  Gusts are likely to exceed 50 mph, esp around the Puget Sound region (& coast, of course).  Simultaneously, freezing levels will drop fast, ushering in a MAJOR BLIZZARD situation across the WA & OR Cascades.  Nat’l Wx Service personnel have posted several warnings about this situation.  Stay out of the mountains for a few days.  Snow will be measured by the feet; wind gusts to exceed 60 mph.  Visibility - don’t even think about it.  Coastal flooding is a concern, as king tides will be ‘magnified’ by the strong onshore winds.

Tue & Wed Jan 9,10: a secondary smaller system is modeled to come onshore somewhere around Astoria late Tue evening.  Areas north of that Low may get snowfall down to the surface, or very near so.  (We should note that this smaller Low may not even develop.)  Expect less rain on Wed, with colder temps and the chance for rain or snow showers around the entire region.  Similar for Thu, except that Arctic air will begin to rush through the Fraser Gap - dropping temps even more across northern WA and BC.  Snow showers possible all day into Fri during this Gap outflow.  Western OR & SW WA should see rain/snow showers, but the air mass may remain warm enough at the surface to limit any snowfall.  

As the modified Arctic air mass settles farther south & east, the eastern basins of WA & OR, as well as ID, will continue to chill down.  The bulk of the super cold air will remain east of the Rockies (per the latest model solutions).  A warm front will move onshore Fri night or early Sat morning - this will set off the chance for snow, freezing rain, or rain, depending on 1) how much cold air fills into the eastern Columbian basin and central OR to flow out of the Columbia Gorge or down the Cascade passes in WA; 2) southern surface winds.  Right now, the greatest threat for frozen precip looks to be over NW WA and maybe Portland area.  The precise center of that Fri night Low will be key.  Stay tuned to local forecasts, as this situation will not be static, with small positional changes having a big impact.

The weekend of Jan 13,14 looks mixed.  Snow, freezing rain or rain.  The Low mentioned above may become stationary west of Astoria and fill in without crossing the state.  Cold air to the east will be drawn west, so hence the mix of frozen precip depending on your location.  The Fraser Gap winds will lessen, but remain present, adding cold air to the ‘pool’ in place from earlier.  Remember though, the coldest portion of this event may remain east of the Rockies, and not be so severe as to keep the west side in a snow plane.  Snow in the Tri-Cities & the rest of the Cascades.

The air mass should warm slowly over the weekend into the early part of the Jan 15-19 period.  Another strong storm system is charting to develop and move south along the BC coast on Tue Jan 16, but this time it is charted to “bump into” a warmer air mass moving in from the west/southwest.  Result: moderate-to-heavy surface rain - first over western WA, then shifting south into OR by Wed.  WINDY.  We do not see a repeat of a cold Yukon air mass pushing through the Fraser Gap, as the Low will track north of the border.

Heavy rain may develop by Fri Jan 19 and last until early Sat Jan 20.  Oregon to get the brunt of this deluge.  It could be mostly dry Sunday and Mon, Jan 21,22, then turn wet again for western WA for a couple of days; OR may dry down.  Temps will be mild during this period.

Again, lots of uncertainty.  Best to be prepared for winter conditions.  As we said the other day, getting in & out of the PNW by road will be a “whitemare” - blowing snow everywhere higher than 1,000 feet.