Records could be broken this weekend.  Mug up for details.

 

The current heat wave, while not necessarily reaching record high temperatures, could extend an extra day (Sunday) to meet or break locational records for the number of consecutive days at or above 90 degrees.  Local wx teams will be detailing this over the weekend.  For now, we do see a cool down on Monday lasting on into the middle of next week, as the onshore flow will increase - the “on” switch for our PNW natural air conditioner.  Eastern basins will remain hot a day or two longer.

 

As next week nears an end, temps will pop up a few degrees, quite possibly back into the 90s, esp for OR & east side as the first weekend of August gets underway.  This time, another variable will be added to the hot conditions - THUNDERSTORMS.  

 

For the week of Aug 8 - 11, models indicate the monsoonal storms of the desert southwest will ride up along the eastern slopes of the Sierra and Cascade ranges, ushering in afternoon & evening thunderstorms, some of which could produce rain/showers that may drift over portions of the west side.  Monsoonal moisture could migrate north into WA, so we’ll keep a watch on this.  MUGGY conditions will make for rather uncomfortable outdoor activities.  

 

Overall, for the next couple of weeks, HOT turns cooler, then warming up again, with increased humidity and mountain (and valley?) storms as August shifts into gear.  Stop by again Mon Aug 1st for another peek ahead.  

 

“A fanatic is a person who is highly enthusiastic about something in which you are not even remotely interested.”   

 

Your interest in these forecasts keep me from being fanatical.  My friends & family say, “Thanks!"

 

 

Toasty week ahead, although the heat wave duration may be shorter & max temps a bit lower.  Let’s review the latest.  Refill time.

 

All are aware of the heat wave across the PNW this week.  What has changed since our last report is that the upper-level air flow may train SMOKE from the California fires over portions of OR, tapping down maximum temps a bit on Tue and Wed, although Tue could end up being hottest day of the week.  The other change is the projected strength of onshore flow by this coming weekend, which may be strong enough to push high temps down into the ‘air conditioned’ zone; especially Sunday.  All-in-all, still a toasty week ahead, so water-up.  Temps in the 90 to mid-90s remain in play, just not a run of triple-digit readings.  If no smoke, a 100+ reading remains probable.

 

As noted, cooler weather is on the charts beginning Sunday, with a weak trough dropping down from the NW, ushering in cool, marine air.  Breezy afternoons.  Temps by later next week - as August gets underway - may actually run a tad below normal, if recent model adjustments verify.   The weekend of Aug 6,7 is trending warm, seasonal.  

 

The second full week of Aug is charting to start out a bit cool, then warm-up into the 80s & 90s by mid-week.  

 

Bottom line: overall temps this week should trend a few degrees lower than expected, and a cooler pattern may return by Sunday.

 

“Why not? I had a better year than he did.”  -George Herman ‘Babe' Ruth - a depression era remark to a reporter who had objected to Ruth’s demanding $80,000 for the 1931 season, $5,000 more than Pres. Herbert Hoover’s salary.

 

 

Word is out on the heat wave about to arrive.  What is uncertain is the number of consecutive days with temps above 90 degrees.  Let us 'Mug through' the possibilities, shall we?

 

Pleasant temperatures today & Saturday.  Heat will begin to build into the PNW starting Sunday, with each day next week likely above 90 in many locations around the PNW.  Onshore flow will be minimal, so overnight low temps will end up being rather uncomfortable for those without air conditioning as the week progresses.  HOTTEST days could be Wed & Thu, with the Willamette Valley and SW WA topping into triple-digits.

 

We see the potential for the coming heat wave to last 5-6 days, which is longer than classic 3 days.  This will depend on how much onshore flow develops NEXT weekend.  If the marine ‘air conditioning' is nominal, temps will remain 90+ in many west side locations through Saturday July 30 or even Sunday.  Triple-digit temps are possible 3 days in a row in the Willamette Valley; longer in the usual hot southern OR zone, and east side.  

 

This heat cycle will NOT be anywhere near the extreme heat experienced the end of June 2021; still, please be neighborly - keep an eye on the elderly in your area - make sure they are keeping cool.  Remember, hundreds passed away in the PNW from the horrible heat last year, mostly seniors living alone without AC.

 

Early August is looking quite normal - temps in the upper 80s to lower 90s, with a cooler day thrown in here & there.  No rain.  Even the risk for mountain thunderstorms is low on the charts (for now).

 

—> Mind that water source for your animals, both pets and livestock.

 

 

 

The biggest change from our last report is that HOT conditions may arrive a few days early.   In the meantime, refill your morning Mug, and get your morning started.

 

Temperatures will pop up 5-10 degrees early this week - depending on your location - relative to yesterday, before ‘cooling' back into the 70s & 80s by Thu.  Winds will be gusty, at times, in the afternoons.  A pleasant summer weekend lies ahead, as well.   

 

The change to HOT looks to come next week.  HOT temperatures developing over NV & UT will expand into the PNW by sometime Tue or Wed July 26,27.  (For newer Patrons sipping a bev, we loosely define hot as 95 - 100+ degrees F.)  We are likely to experience triple-digit temperatures in portions of the Willamette Valley at some point later next week.  Temps in the 90s probable in portions of the Puget Sound, as well; should be a bit cooler along the Canadian border.  Fire danger will be HIGH, so please use caution.

 

The weekend of July 30,31 should be a turning point back to cooler conditions.  An onshore flow will return, with that blessed marine influence holding down temps.    For now, early Aug looks warm as the month gets underway.  

Water up, esp if you are heading away on vacation.  Overall, the heat wave will probably run 3-4 days west side, a bit longer east of the Cascades.  Southern OR (Medford area) could have 5 consecutive days at or above 100.  —> We should mention that often model projections ‘return’ to earlier solutions, so the general heat-up discussed above could be pushed back a few days.  Either way, we do foresee the potential for the hottest temps of 2022 - to date - arriving as July nears an end and August begins. 

 

 

 

Summer rolls on, so too does a steady weather pattern.  Brief update this morning.  Sip on.

 

Onshore flow will remain the key factor in holding temperatures down below HOT for the next couple of weeks.  Yes, there will be a day or two, here-&-there, of rather hot afternoons, but right now, we do not foresee a major heat wave on the horizon.

 

After a relatively cool weekend, temps will ramp up a bit early next week, as that onshore flow weakens, then drop back down a few degrees late week.  The weekend of July 23,24 is trending pleasant.  The last week of the month is trending on the cool side, with a Low pressure trough setting up just offshore.  

 

We do see hints of a rather warm period arriving as July ends.  Stay tuned on this, as temps could again pop into the triple digit range.  Not unusual for mid-summer.

 

Last week, a Patron’s daughter captured the image below of a stunning cloud in New Mexico.  Enjoy your weekend.

 

 

-Rufus