A general mix of what some would call ‘bland’ weather is ahead for the mid-Feb period.  Temps may turn a bit chilly, too.  Get that Mug ready.  Here goes.

Hit & miss showers today and most of Saturday.  Peeks of sunshine possible.  Late Sat, a smaller system will likely bring additional showers to western WA & BC and possibly as far south as Portland/Salem.  Late Sunday afternoon is looking fairly nice, as is Monday Feb 12.  Notice that the period of daylight is getting longer.  Hurray!

While wx models have not been consistent, we do expect a damp, chilly system to move onshore sometime on Tue and last through Valentine’s Day.  High pressure over the Canadian interior is likely to spark brisk winds out of the Fraser Gap for a day or two next week; and, to a lesser degree, from the Columbia Gorge.  Snow showers should remain in the mountains.  It will turn notably colder by Thu, with clearing, morning frost possible on Fri Feb 16.

Chilly weekend on Feb 17,18.  Uncertain model solutions, however, it looks like the bulk of precip will train into California.  The PNW could be chilly with showers, esp over OR, or it may turn out mostly DRY that weekend.  However, the larger scale pattern shifts to a much wetter period during the second half of February.  Heavy rain will continue to plague California; with the PNW turning quite wet in the Feb 22 - 25 period.  Again, models are varying more than a politician, so use caution accepting this forecast.  

Monday February 5 - Nat’l Weatherperson Day

Yep.  Today marks the birthday of John Jeffries, born in 1744, a man recognized as one of the United States’ first weather observers that kept daily weather measurements, starting when he was 30 yrs old, 1774.

Overall weather pattern for the next couple of weeks has shifted a bit, so that’s see what the changes are.  Mainly, we’re not seeing a definite ‘warming period’ for now.  That could return, as models often rebound to earlier progs.  The moisture today is actually associated with the big storm that hit CA this weekend.  Wrap-around clouds & rain moving up from the S.  This will trail off today, leaving the PNW cool & mostly dry through this week.  A shower or two will remain possible, esp Wed and late Thu night into Fri.  California will begin drying out for a week or so before more heavy rainfall after Valentine’s Day.

This coming weekend is trending a weak front moving over western WA & BC, but not too organized.  So, expect a shower or two in the Evergreen State.  Mild for OR.  

A damp system is now charting for Tue Feb 13 and should exit by the morning of Valentine’s Day.  Some cloudiness, but dry, Feb 15,16 to end that week.  Late Fri Feb 16, a large ’trough’ of stormy weather over the Gulf of Alaska will begin moving towards the west coast.  Right now, models drive the bulk of the rain & snow into California during the following week, which leaves the PNW in a zone where the leading ‘rain field’ is stretched out along the coasts of OR & WA, rather than making a direct shot onshore.  Therefore, for today, let’s call for a chance of some rain (west side only) during the weekend of Feb 17,18 with mild temps around the region.  

Week of Feb 19-23 looks WET for all of the west coast.  As noted, CA will again be slammed by the ‘El Niño’ pattern of heavy rain & mountain snow.  Flooding issues are likely to return to the Golden State.  Road crews will be playing catch-up again.

The pattern projected above does not favor a substantial addition to the snowpack across the Cascades, with limited February snow held up above pass levels.  

Let’s repeat that.  Ground Hog Day - 2024.  Quick update which will focus mainly on the added rain/showers before a mild February dry spell coming soon.  

Overall, fairly dry & cool this weekend around the PNW, as the BIG storm on the charts heads to California.  Yes, the Golden State will be hammered with a major winter storm, starting Sunday morning.  Heavy rain, snow in the mountains and WIND.  A large, deep Low center of pressure will move close to the Bay area on Sunday, then slowly move north by early next week.  Localized flooding is likely in areas of CA across the entire state.  As said Low moves north, wrap-around moisture will train into the PNW bringing widely scattered west side showers and east side snow Sunday night & early Monday.  Snow in ID & MT, too.

After the early Monday drips, the next cold, damp system is charting for late Tue into Wed.  Snow showers are likely below the passes.  Generally, a chilly Feb week.  The mid-week system will strengthen some and roll right down the CA coast, for more rain in that area.  El Nino pattern will be brought up by the media.  We do not disagree.

The weekend of Feb 10,11 may see a bit of rain or showers, esp over OR, but other than that, we should FINALLY get that extended, mild dry pattern setting up, as mentioned in our last report.   Some solutions suggest a quick moving systems may skirt NW WA & BC around Tue Feb 13, but most model runs keep the PNW generally dry, with temperature building into Spring-like levels after Valentine’s Day on through Tue Feb 20.  It’s not unusual for west side locations to catch a week of 60s in February.  The frogs will again begin the 'Croaking Choir’ chorus, much like we heard a few days ago.

Second ☕️ Cup:  Driving over to Newport from the valley revealed incredible damage to trees from the ice storm a couple of weeks ago.  Deciduous trees were shattered extensively.  Nature’s open sore, if you will.  

Finishing up your host's 71st birthday celebration in Lincoln City, 

Wrapping up the first month of 2024 (sure zipped by fast).  Nice to start a new day with full Mug ☕️.  Got it?

Record high temps yesterday for many locations around the Great PNW (and most likely today, as well, if the fog clears).  Sadly, flooding continues up along the WA state & Canadian border.  More rain on the way there, while the rest of us have dry & WARM today & part of Tue.  A shift back to damp & cool weather will begin late Tue on through the rest of the week.  Colder air will move in behind the primary front that will bring steady rain & showers back to the entire west coast on Wed & Thu.  This particular system will get stretched out, so it will be California that gets the brunt of the heavy rainfall.  

There will NOT be an outflow out of the Fraser Gap, as models hold the cold High pressure dome primarily over the Alaskan interior.  However, the eastern edge of a cold air mass over the Gulf of Alaska will be drawn down into the PNW beginning Thu.  Snow will begin again where we like it - in the mountains - later on Thu.

Going Dry.  As noted, the main focus of the mid-week storm will move into CA, so we can expect heavy rain over Vancouver Is to cease, and not too much rain or snow for the rest of the PNW as Friday draws to a close.  Chilly again, so enjoy the Spring-like temps the next couple of days.  Rain will be the main story over CA Sunday all the way through the first full week of February.  The PNW will turn mostly DRY & cool for the first weekend of February and through the 9th.  Foggy bottoms likely, so be cautious.  An E-to-NE breeze will kick-up Monday evening.  Showers may return to Vancouver Is., southern BC and eastern WA by the end of next week.   

The Feb 10,11 weekend is trending DRY on the charts.  Warmer temps, as well.  The dry & mild conditions are modeled to hold on through the second full week of February (12-16).  Should this scenario hold, the ‘awakening’ of plants out of winter mode could begin.  That’s fine, if another cold snap doesn’t happen.  Early bud-break for various PNW crops is not necessarily a good thing.  

Bottom line: it may turn dry for the entire first half of the second month of 2024.  

Some changes in the forecast, so get yourself ‘Mug ☕️ ready'.

One key change since our last sip together is that HEAVY RAINFALL is now in the works for a few days.  While the bulk of the almost continuous precip will fall north of OR, northern CA up into Canada will get a drenching between this morning (Fri Jan 26) and mid-week.  Details: a very moist air mass is moving into position to dump as much as 2” of valley rain and 4”-6” inches in the higher elevations now through Wed.  Snow levels will be elevated early on, given the warm nature of the air mass, so low level snows will melt quickly into the watershed.  For OR, late Sunday afternoon into Mon may turn out MILD & generally dry, while NW WA and southern BC continue wet.  Vancouver Island, esp the northern 1/2, will be absolutely dumped on for a few days.  —> For our Patrons up there, please focus on safety and having supplies in case access by road is cut off.  

Next week - wet pattern continues on Monday for NW WA  BC, while OR may remain mostly dry AND WARM for January.  The next, large area very wet system will begin pushing onshore likely before sunrise on Wed Jan 31.  Mild temps to start, but then, after the front passes, temperatures will drop RAPIDLY and turn the PNW back into a “sure-feels-like-winter” mode again.  That’s the other key change.  Around the PNW, Thu Feb 1 is trending much colder, with the likelihood of rain/snow mixed at the surface in many areas, if moisture holds out.  COLD night Thu, with possible hard frost to start Groundhog Day.  (A weak Nor’easter will bring clouds & snow to PA on Groundhog Day.  Poor ‘Phil” will probably not see his shadow!). 

For Patrons in the Bellingham/Lynden/Abbotsford region - expect a Fraser Gap outflow to start up on Groundhog Day.  This should NOT be a repeat of the last Arctic Event, but it will be notable for a couple of days.  Windy & Cold.  

The weekend of Feb 3,4 is trending rather cold.  Moisture rotating around a Low over ID may actually bring snow showers over western valleys, both in WA & OR during the weekend.  Just say’n.  California will also get a drenching during this weekend, as well.  In fact, early Feb is trending WET in CA, with lots of mountain snowfall, esp across the southern CA mountains. 

The week of Feb 5-10 is charting dry & chilly.  Morning fog and frost possible.  By the end of that week, models suggest a return of a Fraser Gap outflow, with a small Low positioning over Tatoosh Island, circulating ‘snowy’ moisture into NW WA & the US/Canadian border.   Don’t mark that down just yet, as it is way out there on the crystal wx ball.   Overall, we can expect dry chilly conditions to hold through the weekend of Feb 10,11 (not unusual for Feb).

Stop by your WxCafé™️ again on Monday for our update.  🔺For a ‘quick click’ to The Weather Café®️, bookmark:  https://www.ovs.com/blogs/the-wxcafe