Wrapping up the month with cloudiness and hope for a pleasant April.  Let’s ponder the options.

 

Clouds & showers (moving north from a California Low pressure system) will slowly yield to warmer sunshine in many PNW areas today.  Heavy rain along the OR/ID border will slowly move NE.  Additional showers / thunderstorms possible in the southern quadrant of OR, as well.

 

This week: expect Tue to be the warmest and driest day of the week, with mild temps & an 'easy breeze'.  A weak, but rather chilly, system will edge into the PNW on Wed, north-to-south, so clouds will return, as will the chance for precipitation, most of which will fall north of Portland.  The storm is not modeled to produce a lot of rain, merely enough to dampen roads and refresh early Spring flowers.  April Fool’s Day will be mostly dry & cool.  The far corner of NW WA & Vancouver Island could get another splash or two of rain on Friday; most of us should remain mild & dry.  

 

The weekend ahead: we had hoped that model solutions for an amazingly warm & dry weekend would verify.  Well, that’s gone.  While not a total wash-out, charts now indicate on/off period of showers, with sun breaks.  Temperatures should remain on the mild side, overall.  All that will set the stage for a wet start to the week of Apr 4-8.  

 

Sunday night through Tue Apr 4, looks damp & cool, esp from Portland/Salem north.  A high pressure ridge, currently centered well offshore of OR will slowly build NE, turning off the cool showers and setting up a pleasant 2nd half to next week.  It will get quite WINDY across southern OR, both sides of the mountains; northern CA, too.  That wind will shift northeasterly by late Thu evening, which will bring on WARM temperatures in western OR on Fri.  That warmth will also nudge north over the Puget Sound by later Fri the 8th.  All of areas west side will experience a pleasant Saturday, Apr 9.  (Yes, we recognize it is only a long-range prog.)  A large Low pressure trough is charting to fill the Gulf of Alaska as the weekend of Apr 9 & Palm Sunday.  This, if verified, will set up a rather cold, WET period Apr 11-14.  As a matter of note: model solutions suggest a cold Low off the coast of NW WA, which could open the door for a pre-Easter cold snap.  Ponder Point, for now.

 

 

 

The wide variation in wx model projections we have experienced of late continues.  Today’s update presents changes - favorable for OR, especially for agriculture; not so much so for NW WA and BC.  Mug refill. 

 

First, the two systems we discussed for this weekend are going to split far apart offshore.  One will bring back showers - starting tonight - to areas around the Puget Sound, maybe as far south as Chehalis through Sat; the other, much larger system, will drop far to the south to bring rain for CA by Sunday.  Oregon & SW WA Patrons are likely to be granted a decent final weekend in March.  Saturday should be pleasant, with the chance for a Cascade slope shower or thunderstorm on Sunday, as the big Low moves along central CA coast.  Temperatures will be comfortable.

 

Another weak disturbance may bring clouds & a few showers over the Puget Sound, north on Wed; other than that, next week is looking dry until Fri for much of the PNW.  The rain charted earlier is gone.  The system that may develop on April Fool’s Day should be short-lived, opening the door for a decent, mild temperature 1st weekend of April.  Sunday April 3 could be absolutely PNW delightful.  Systems split well-offshore, leaving the PNW under a mild ridge of high pressure, west of those split Lows.

 

The week of Apr 4-8 is trending as mostly WET, with a series of systems (wetter the farther north one goes from OR into BC).  Hard to trust this extended-range outlook, as model projections showing the wet periods have been wrong more often than right.  Good reason to keep that Mug handy for these discussions on Mondays and Fridays.

 

 

 

Pleasant days ahead, so too, will be additional rainfall.  Let’s take a peek.

 

Today’s precip should end later in the evening, as a high pressure ridge rapidly builds overhead.  Temps tomorrow will jump into the 60s in many locations, excluding the far NW corner of the PNW, which may have some cloudiness.  There will be a short downturn on Wed, as a very weak system drapes clouds and a few showers over the region, esp north of Eugene.  Thursday and most of the day Fri look dry & mild.  Temps should pop back up into the 60s in western OR - maybe the low 70s in southern OR; it will be a bit cooler for the Puget Sound).

  

The last weekend of March is shaping up to be wet, although the models have shifted the second system of the 'double play' (mentioned in our last discussion) farther south into CA.  Therefore, we’ll forecast a mix of sun & showers for Sunday Mar 27.   

 

The last few days of March are trending as quite WET & blustery.  A series of storm fronts are charting to roll onshore, each with breezy conditions, and cooler temps, esp on Fri, April Fool’s Day.  

 

Most solutions for the first weekend of April are indicating absolutely delightful Spring weather up & down the entire west coast.  Temps could top out in the upper 70s from Eugene north; lower 70s over western WA by Sunday Apr 3.  Too early to break out the patio shade umbrella, but we can at least begin to hope.  

 

The April 4-8 period looks CHILLY, with the potential for FROST in the Columbia basin & upper desert at some point that week.  Why?  A cold - for April - interior Canada air mass may move into the heartland, clipping the PNW on the eastern flank.  A NE offshore wind could usher in some of that heavy, chilly air into western portions of the PNW through the usual Cascade Gaps.  We’ll keep an eye on this just in case it looks highly probable.  For now, we’ll forecast a relatively dry, but chilly, pattern that week.

 

 

 

The Spring Equinox is Sunday.  We’ll also be in for a favorable change in the weather pattern just in time for Oregon Spring Break week.  Morn’n beverage refilled?

 

A cold, wet pattern will be the story for this weekend, as a new season begins.  Rain will start later tonight (Fri) in the north then spread across the PNW by Sat.  Snow levels will drop below the passes by Sunday; travelers be aware if heading over the mountains.  

 

Spring Break week has taken a positive change - as temperatures now look to jump into the 60s in many west side locations by Tue or Wed; teasing the low 70s in southern OR.  In fact, other than a few late-day showers over the far north corner of WA and/or Vancouver Is. on Monday, the region should enjoy a pleasant 4-5 days next week.  Parents will be pleased with this favorable break in the wet weather.

 

By late Fri Mar 25, the wx pattern will shift again into storm mode.  In fact, the storm now charting for Sat/Sun Mar 26,27 could be a decent wind producer, along with plenty of rain.  A double play may be in store, as a late Sunday storm could also bring on some wind & rain along with cooler temperatures.  

 

March will end with a couple of dry days before April arrives with moderate-to-heavy rainfall and breezy conditions.  Mountain snowpack will continue to build, as well.  

 

 

 

A few changes, as we come to expect, in the long-range outlook, so let’s take a Mug shot.

 

Wet through Tue, cooling down a few degrees tomorrow.  Wednesday is now trending as mostly dry, with a chance for a shower here-and-there along the western slopes of the Cascades.  St Patrick’s Day should turn damp, from north to south, as a weak system drapes over the PNW (most of the precip should be over western WA, southern BC); mainly cloudiness south of Salem.   The wet Friday system mentioned in our last write-up will arrive a few hours later, setting up a brisk, wet start to the weekend, with snow levels dropping into the foothills by late Saturday.  We may catch rain break starting Sunday (which is the opposite of our last report), with drier, cold air aloft.  FROST probable east of the Cascades Sunday and/or Monday morning, should the sky clear in your location; west side is likely to remain frost-free, but it will be close.   A brisk start to Spring 2022.

 

The first 3 days of next week are now trending mostly dry for Oregon, wet for northern 1/2 of western WA & BC.early.  It will turn chilly & WET for the Mar 26,27 weekend (note: late model solutions keep it dry Sat the 26th).  A wet & chilly (relatively low elevation snow showers) pattern is charting to continue on into the last few days of March, so don’t expect the ground to dry enough for major farm work.  

 

Second Cup ☕️☕️.  We’ve all noticed the dramatic swing back & forth of the extended-range model outlooks over the last several months.  What was charting as wet, turns dry, then shifting back again.  For our newer Patrons, such is the nature of this venture.  However, in our opinion, broadly there remains enough overall accuracy in the model trends to warrant our continual presentation of ‘what may happen’.  Stick with us.  The frustration in planning outdoor activities ‘around the weather’ is recognized, especially now, as Spring & Summer unfold this year.