When wx models miss the target by 50-100 miles, most people never notice.  BUT, if snow is involved, whoa, the error has large impact.  Such was the case these past few days, as the secondary Low we mentioned in our Monday discussion did form & stall farther north, which triggered more plenty of The White in many locations.  Winter is not done yet, so refill that morn’n beverage, and take in our ’spin’.

COLD, pleasant sunny day ahead, with Saturday starting out dry, as well.   Subfreezing temps are evident just about everywhere across the PNW.  Cold, heavy air now in place, so it will take a decent southerly flow to push it out of the area.  This is important because the next cold front is due to arrive Saturday afternoon over Vancouver Is & BC, then move south overnight Saturday.  All indications are for MORE SNOW at the surface in many locations, esp above 500 ft to start, then turn to mostly snow after the front passes.  Expect to see The White falling on Sunday.  There may be a small ‘pocket’ excluded from the surface snow south of Salem, but that could easily change, as we have just seen.

More moisture moving in from the west on Monday, Feb 27.  This system will be warmer at its core, but may not be strong enough to push all of the heavy, cold surface air out of the way as the moisture moves inland.  We’ll advise to be ready for another shot of low elevations snowfall west side as the Low approaches landfall around the mouth of the Columbia River.  FREEZING RAIN could also be a factor in areas farther away from the Columbia Gorge outflow zone.  With another Low approaching along a similar track, although a bit farther north, Tue Feb 28 presents a ‘repeat’ play to Monday’s system.  It is quite possible that enough warmer air aloft will mitigate frozen precip issues by Tue afternoon, except for elevations about 1,500 ft or so.  Temps will continue below normal.

Wed Mar 1st is trending DRY and on the chilly side.  Thu & Fri Mar 2,3 look damp, with surface rain and snow potentially as low as 1,000 ft, esp north of Portland.  The first weekend of March is trending dry and a tad warmer on Saturday, with another WET system expected by Sunday, as a Low tracks north offshore from the south.  Typical March storm.  Good news, is that we see a drying trend showing up on the charts for Tue Mar 7 through the following weekend of Mar 11,12.  That weekend is looking MILD and very Spring-like!

Banks, Post Office, Schools, Stock Markets - are all closed for the holiday; however, the weather is always 'working'.  Rumor has it that cherry pie is popular today, so, too, is a hot cup of coffee.  Mug ready?

The PNW will transition this evening back into ‘winter mode’ around the west coast.  A notable storm will arrive overnight, with lots of well-advertised snow in the mountains, coast range & foothills by morning.  Also, it will be WINDY!  Rain will not be too heavy, however, any showers, post frontal passage, could be of the thunder type, esp along the coast.  Several inches of snow will be falling just about everywhere above 1,000 ft.  

For those of us at sea level, or nearly so, we can expect some of The White, at times, to fall and STICK, as the air & ground turns colder each day this week.   Most of the straight snow should fall Wed & Thu although many will likely see snowfall late Tue evening or so.  The amount of snow is so uncertain, as every forecaster keeps telling us, because the moisture source will diminish after the cold front passes.  However, there is a weak Low modeled to form Thu, which could swing moisture into the western OR area for an additional tease of valley snow.  Portions of CA will also receive cold rain, low elevation snow, and frosty mornings later this week.  Strong Fraser River, and to a lesser extend, Columbia River Gorge, outflow wind will come into play, esp Wed/Thu.  

High temperatures on Thu or Fri could rival the coldest recorded west side in several decades (!) for this time of year.  Overnight lows will be in the lower 20s to upper teens; colder if out of the wind or on the east side.  Broadly speaking, this event may end up being the coldest of this winter.  Keep your skin protected, as wind chill will be quite low.  Dry & Cold Fri and Saturday.

There is another system that should arrive mid-to-late this coming weekend (Feb 25,26), which, depending on the track it takes, could bring additional snow above 1,000 ft and threaten valley snow or freezing rain, at times, if there is enough offshore flow mixing in.  Model solutions do suggest that the system will remain offshore as it tracks into CA; showers of rain/snow mixed possible, esp south of Salem Monday Feb 27.  

The week of Feb 27 - Mar 3 looks quite chilly and wet, with snow levels above the valley floor, but low enough to make travel over coast & Cascade ranges tricky.  It gets interesting again later on Fri Mar 3 because a similar COLD storm front is charting to move in from the northwest - with the same features as this week’s pattern.  Yes, very low snow levels,  including at the surface - are quite probable during the first weekend of March.  Icy roads & frost possible Monday Mar 6, while the PNW awaits yet another COLD, foothill snow-type storm from the NW.  Given the higher angle of pre-spring sunshine, these cold March storms often kick-off thundershowers over the west, with plenty of hail.  PNW & California snowpack will grow deeper. 

Back for our current event:  Just for the fun-of-it, we will throw out a few numbers.  There are model solutions that project a cumulative of 5 to 6 inches of snow from Salem south to Roseburg between Wed and Fri midnight, with a couple inches in Portland; another run projects 2”-3”; then another few inches in early March.  Much of NW WA will miss out on the snow, but the cold wind will be notable.  

Yes, when it comes to snowfall, forecasts and reality hardly ever match up around here.  Still, this week will offer the best chance for a decent Willamette Valley snow this winter.  Bundle up and have fun waiting.  No harm in that!

Well, it’s back - the forecast is for SNOW.  Get a hot morn’n beverage ready, and sip on. 

This weekend will be relatively mild, with the chance for a little rain or showers, esp north of Salem; NW WA & southern BC will be damp at times, with a few hours of dry sprinkled about.  The big change begins Monday, with a very high probability for SNOW across the entire PNW as next week unfolds.  Long-winded details next.  Keep your Mug full.

Recall that throughout the nearly 29 years of writing here, we stress that longer-range, 10-day model solutions often shift back & forth, with older solutions ending up being the most accurate.  Well, our Ponder Point written Feb 10 may end up being the 'real thing’.   We pondered about a very SNOWY, COLD end to February was being crafted by the wx models; that has returned as a solution for the next couple of weeks.  

The Set Up.  (Stay with us on this.)  A ‘double dome’ combination of High pressure zones will merge on Monday - one over the northern Gulf of Alaska, the other over the interior of Canada.  The result will be a Low pressure trough pinched between the merging domes that will initiate windy, wet weather over the PNW starting late Monday.  Idaho, MT, WY will get snow right off, the PNW will turn much COLDER overnight Mon as that Low (in simple terms) reforms off the coast of WA & OR and essentially ‘parks' there from Tue through Thu.  

The Result.  On & off SNOW showers for all west side locations is probable for 3 days.  The higher, cumulative accumulations are likely from Longview to Ashland, but everyone should get an inch or two, at least, if all this model projection verifies.  (Some models suggest 5” to 10” in western OR.  Really?)  We should add that several different models are assembling a similar solution for next week.  As that Low spins to our west, COLD modified Arctic Air will gush out across the mountain passes and the usual Fraser & Columbia Gaps.  Burrrr.   Low temps should range from upper teens to low 20s, west side, in wind sheltered areas.  The wind should diminish by late Fri, and that Low will bring cold rain and possibly news-making low elevation snow to California. 

A new system is charting to drop in from the BC coast by Sat night Feb 25, with rain, rain/snow mix, or just plain snow across the PNW.  California will get in on the rain as that storm tracks  south.  Some solutions swing that same Low up into eastern OR by Tue Feb 28, with snow east side.  Long-range outlook is for March to start out very much like our weather next week - damp, snowy and cold.  Let’s winter through next week first.  

🔺Winter is likely to slam the west coast again.  Travel plans will be impacted, both air & road.  School delays and/or closures will also impact work routines.  Heed Nat’l Wx Service watches & warnings specific to your location, because they will, indeed, vary from our 'broad overview' type forecasts here at The Weather Café®️

A touch of The White will arrive later tonight and early Valentine’s Day.  Mug ready?

Patrons west of the Cascades, and esp here in Oregon, are likely to wake-up on Valentine’s Day with a touch of snow on the ground.  The ‘White Heart’ storm is pushing onshore as this is written.  Showers today (Mon Feb 13) will be intense at times, with graupel or hail at times, along with gusty winds.  Coast range/passes and Cascade range/passes will be hammered with snow.  Freezing levels will drop to near the surface overnight, so whatever moisture that falls should be SNOW.  A secondary Low is modeled to drift over OR very early Tue.  Depending on where the center of that Low moves onshore, sea level areas north will receive snowfall; south of the weak Low may not get as much snow, as a southerly breeze could keep the surface above freezing.  That said, we do expect many west side locations to receive an inch or less of snow; a few more inches if above 500 ft; over a foot on The White in the mountains.  If you are right under an intense shower - snowfall will be greater, for that moment.  

Tue night and early Wed expect ICY conditions on roads and walkways.  Don’t slip.  Temps will warm to seasonal norms during the week, with the next chance for precip arriving sometime on Fri, mainly over the north Puget Sound area.  The coming weekend looks mixed, with Sat being the drier of the two days; possible showers here & there on Sunday.  Overnight lows will continue to tease the freezing mark, if the sky clears in your location.

The week of Feb 20 - 24 does look damp, although the threat for a big snow event has waned (for now).  Strong cold Pacific storms will slam into the coastal areas of central BC, with the associated rain fields presenting rain & mountain snow to WA & OR.  As the week progresses, each Low center will track closer & closer to western WA, so we expect the intensity of the fronts to increase locally.  Snow levels will trend lower with each system, but since models now keep the overall track of these storms to the north - as compared to our earlier discussion - surface snow is not likely.

Quite like the week before, the weekend of Feb 25, 26 will bring on a couple strong storms to the PNW, with snow levels dropping to 1,000 ft with possible rain/snow mixed at times at the surface.  A cold pattern, if you will.  

Overall, the second half of February will provide an excellent addition to the PNW snowpack.  Stop by Fri for the next update.  Happy Valentine’s Day.

Is lots of snow in our long-range outlook?  Though remote, there is that chance.  Let’s get there first, shall we?

Showers today will continue as a Low spins south off the OR coast towards CA (where it will slide all the way to San Diego by Sunday).  Mild temps.  This weekend is looking fairly dry and on the mild side.  Super Bowl Sunday will be a decent ‘game day’ here in the PNW, so those not interested in viewing the game can get outside for commercial-free space.  The change towards the chance for “White Heart’ SNOW begins on Monday Feb 13.

Overnight Sunday, a cold front will slip over Vancouver Is. / NW WA.  By daybreak, the system will have pushed south into OR & east of the Cascades.   Early on, it will produce rain / Cascade snow, but as Monday evening arrives, temperatures will have dropped enough for rain/snow mixed quite near the surface, then potentially all snow before Tue morning.  As is the case when we get this type of pattern - the amount of moisture that remains once the colder air is in place ends up quite limited.  However, we will stick with the chance that most Patrons west of the Cascades are likely to see snowfall on Valentine’s Day, as the 'White Heart’ storm draws cold air into the region.  Accumulations are iffy, so don’t expect to make snowmen at sea level.  There is an outside chance for a secondary shot of moisture to develop over southern OR, opening the door for a bit more snow across areas south of Salem.  Just say’n.  

The cold front will drape across CA, so as the sky clears afterwards, FROST possible in California’s Big Valley.  The PNW could also be a bit ICY on Wed morning, if the sky clears in your area.  School delays should not be ruled out.  Dry & chilly during the break in precip on Wed, with very weak system modeled to bring a return to valley RAIN or showers & mountain snow late Thu into Fri, Feb 16,17.  Widely scattered showers possible Sat, with snow showers in the mountains, and over the eastern basins.  

Ponder Point.  Dare we write this portion? (Ah shucks, go for it.)  Long-range model scenarios hint at a MAJOR snow event for the PNW sometime in the Feb 21 through Feb 28 period.  Yes, of course, this is so far out there, but it has happened in the past, so read on.  Cold air is modeled to flow out over the eastern Pacific and then be turned onshore by a series of Low pressure systems spinning plenty of moisture - as SNOW - into the PNW.  Southern BC could literally be hammered with The White.  The cold cycle, snow threat could begin as early as Tue Feb 21, with snow levels dropping during that first cold front.  Surface snow looks iffy, as southerly winds should hold up the freezing level just a bit, esp the farther south one is in the PNW.  However, by late Wed Feb 22 & Thu Feb 23, all bets are off.  A STRONG system is charting to move into play, with plenty of ’snow-cold’ moisture expected.  WINDY to start, then as the center Low tracks south, models hint at plenty of surface snow across the entire PNW, with the coast also possibly in play.  High pressure Dome pooling Arctic air to the interior of BC, could set off cold winds from the Fraser Gap.  The snowy period may run a few days, Feb 22-26.  

The other, likely scenario is for the Pacific High to push in, keeping the PNW dry and mild during the period discussed above.  That said, models have repeated the colder solutions enough for us to present valley snow as a ‘Ponder Point’ while you sip that morn’n beverage.  We’ll update again in a few days.