For several days now we have watched the wx charts indicate a notable heat wave coming to the PNW soon, only to see that event delayed.  Well, confidence levels are increasing for that heat-up to begin late next week.  Meanwhile, some showers and a nice cool break is likely first.  Refill time.

The weekend ahead will be warm, with weak monsoonal moisture riding north along the eastern Cascades.  Sunday should be the warmest of the next 3 days.  A rapidly moving cold front is modeled to drop in for a 'summer visit' next week, which will bring clouds, showers and much cooler temps on Tue & Wed.  Southern OR may miss any precip, but at least temps should be a bit cooler that this weekend.  Enjoy the coolness because what may be the hottest temperatures to hit the PNW since the deadly heat wave in June 2021 are looking possible mid-August.

Starting next Thu, Aug 10 a shift in the pattern will begin.  A low pressure heat-trough is modeled to build up from the desert SW & CA, ushering in the first significant heat wave of 2023.  By the weekend of Aug 12,13, temps will pop into the mid-to-upper 90s (low 100s in southern OR, east side).  Sunday will be the hottest of that weekend.  Then, the furnace gets going —

As other PNW meteorologists are now noting, various models are coming into ‘agreement’ that the week of Aug 14-18 will be scorching hot - even up into southern BC.  Temps over 100 are highly probable across much of the PNW.  We see the potential for Tue Aug 15 to present Willamette Valley temps in the 105-110 degrees.  Yikes.  While afternoon highs should drop out of triple-digit range, at times, we see the potential for 90+ degree temps to last through the weekend of Aug 19,20.  As we mentioned a week ago, the PNW rarely experiences heat waves lasting longer than 3-4 days; this one could double that.  

Patrons that may be heading out of the PNW on a mid-August vacation, be sure your garden, landscaping, pets, etc are properly cared-for in the excessive heat; more importantly, all of us need to be cognizant of elderly neighbors that have no air conditioning (over 800 folks lost their lives in the 2021 event - mostly seniors from excessive heat indoors).  We all have time to prepare, just in case models verify.

ALL of California will also be in on the extreme heat, with brown-outs a real risk to the power grids.  

Good bye July.  No big change in the 2 week outlook since our last Mug together, so this will be brief.

Warmer period on the way, with a few days at or above 90 degrees; most in the 80s west side.  Thunderstorms may build along the peaks of the Cascades, esp in OR, at times.  This coming weekend looks a few degrees warmer than the days preceding, then a tad cooler for Tue & Wed Aug 8, 9 next week.  Partly cloudy around the Puget Sound next week, as well, as the onshore flow increases for a few days.  

We see the potential for a notable heat-up (90+ to low 100s many areas west side) beginning during the weekend of Aug 12,13 and extending into the following week; so too, will thunderstorm activity along the Cascades.  Typical August pattern.  No rain.

Ah, 'Song of Summer' time - yes, indeed, it is that time of year when western field crickets begin chirping their ’Song of Summer’.  Thanks to a Patron in NE Salem for her report of the song starting in that area a couple evenings ago.  As long-time Patrons know, we have of bit of entomological fun tuning in to when the crickets begin their chirping each summer.  On the west side of OR & WA, that timing is typically around Aug 6 - later if it has been rather cool ahead of Aug; earlier if warmer than usual.  This year it has been a tad warm, so we can expect more of the Song of Summer to be heard about the region before Aug 6.  Listen for the chirping in the evenings (kids & grandkids can have fun with this, too).  Once the crickets get going, they will ’sing’ in chorus until fall frosts.  Let us know!  We heard one sole chirper here in Albany a couple days ago, but nothing since.  

A slight adjustment in the long-range outlook may be in the works.  Pour yourself another morn’n beverage and let’s take a look at the possible change.

The primary difference in the outlook as projected on the charts is that west side areas of the PNW may not experience a long run of 90+ degree conditions in early August.   Current charting favors holding temperatures around the PNW in the mid-to-upper 80s, rather than a constant 90s to lower 100s.  (East side Patrons will still get a few days of 100+ heat, but even that may only happen on & off, rather than for 8 or 9 days in a row.)  We all know this could revert back to our earlier protections (see below), so stay tuned.  For now --

• 82-86 for western OR through the weekend; Tri-Cities likely to pop 100.  Cooler around the Puget Sound.
• Next week will turn warmer on Tue Aug 1 (could hit 90), but then dropping into the 80s until Fri Aug 4.  We still see 90+ possible during the weekend of Aug 5,6.
• The week of Aug 7-11 looks to be over 90 on Mon and again on Fri; mid-80s otherwise.  Weekend of Aug 12,13 trends 85-91.  Yes, cooler around the Sound.

For the past week or so, we have been reflecting the model outlook concerning an extended heat wave pattern for the PNW in early August.  Charting was rather consistent, so too was our HOT forecast, with a few triple digit days west side.  Long-time Patrons know that model outlooks often revert back to previous forecast conditions as the actual ‘real time’ event period arrives.  Such may be the case this time, but we’ll have to wait and see.  Anyway, while we may escape 7 or 8 days of 90+ temps in a row, overall conditions will remain rather warm, with 90s sprinkled here & there.  A long stretch of 90+ may be Fri Aug 4 through Mon Aug 7.  That’s 4 consecutive days for the Willamette Valley & SW Washington.  No rainfall is expected, except for mountain thunderstorms, at times.

The HEAT is coming, so enjoy the remainder of July especially if you have outdoor activities or work.  Mug up time.

It was about 5-7 degrees warmer each day this past weekend than we expected.  The other adjustment will be the ‘splash’ of precipitation arriving over the next 24 hrs.  Currently, a front is moving onshore with BC & WA getting rain/showers first, then the NW area of OR to follow.  A decent shot of precip north of Portland; possibility for dust-busting showers south to Lincoln City and Salem.  The clouds & showers will hold temperatures down in the pleasant range, as one would expect, early this week.  By Wed it will clear out, with temps moving back up a few degrees, but not super hot - yet.  

The coming weekend looks sunny & warm, with Sunday a couple degrees warmer, in the mid 80s. 

On Monday the 31st, even warmer temps arrive to start the week, as the regional atmosphere begins to set up for an extended HEAT WAVE over the west coast.  Next Tue & Wed, the first couple days of August get the opening call for hot.  90s in most locations, excluding coastal zones; triple digits east side.  The Puget Sound may remain cooler during the initial phase of this extended heat event.  As next week nears an end, temps will remain toasty.  

The weekend of Aug 5,6 looks to be hotter still - with temps in the 100s in many locations, both sides of the Cascades (yes, cooler over the Puget Sound, or so the models suggest right now).  Models indicate the build-up of thunderstorms along the eastern slopes of the Oregon Cascades.  FIRE issues will be elevated.

The August heat wave is charting to roll right on into the week of Aug 7-11.  Broadly, temps will remain in the 90s to lower 100s.  Around the PNW, west side heat waves typically last 3 or 4 days; this one could extend 8 or 9 days.  Plan accordingly.

Let’s get right to the forecast.  Refill and read on.

Pleasant weekend ahead, with temps in the low to mid 80s, slightly cooler around the sound.  Cooler pattern, with chance for drizzle or scattered showers starting early next week, but that cloudy/damp period will be limited to north of Chehalis.  Western OR will cool down a few degrees, with some morning marine clouds, while remaining dry.  Heat keeps going east side on into ID.

Warm Wed through Fri next week, as the ridge of high pressure begins to slowly rebuild over the PNW.  We’ll begin to get ‘toasty' starting Sunday July 30.  The ‘heat dome’ making news across the desert SW will expand west, then north, as August gets underway.  This cycle will likely present the hottest days, thus far, for 2023.  Triple digit readings are probable, at times, for large portions of the west, including Willamette Valley, SW WA and east side.  That said, the key takeaway is for a possible string of 90+ degree days that will make the dog days of summer uncomfortable, even with a northerly breeze.  Patrons in southern BC will warm up, too, but not to excessive levels (per current model runs).  Got a swimming site?

Concurrent with the heat-up will be increasing monsoonal storms across the desert SW, moving northward over mountains feeding the Colorado River, which will bring on rapid melt of the heavy snow pack, continuing positive ‘refilling’ of Lake Powell & Lake Mead.

☕️☕️☕️ Third Cup:  Dr Cliff Mass, Atmospheric Science Professor at Univ of Washington, posted a fine piece in his blog on July 20th titled “Is Global Warming Causing Massive Heatwaves?”  Worth the read at cliffmass.blogspot.com 

Bottom line: August will start out quite toasty, so enjoy the relatively pleasant summer temps as we journey through the last 11 days of July.