Well, it’s back - the forecast is for SNOW.  Get a hot morn’n beverage ready, and sip on. 

This weekend will be relatively mild, with the chance for a little rain or showers, esp north of Salem; NW WA & southern BC will be damp at times, with a few hours of dry sprinkled about.  The big change begins Monday, with a very high probability for SNOW across the entire PNW as next week unfolds.  Long-winded details next.  Keep your Mug full.

Recall that throughout the nearly 29 years of writing here, we stress that longer-range, 10-day model solutions often shift back & forth, with older solutions ending up being the most accurate.  Well, our Ponder Point written Feb 10 may end up being the 'real thing’.   We pondered about a very SNOWY, COLD end to February was being crafted by the wx models; that has returned as a solution for the next couple of weeks.  

The Set Up.  (Stay with us on this.)  A ‘double dome’ combination of High pressure zones will merge on Monday - one over the northern Gulf of Alaska, the other over the interior of Canada.  The result will be a Low pressure trough pinched between the merging domes that will initiate windy, wet weather over the PNW starting late Monday.  Idaho, MT, WY will get snow right off, the PNW will turn much COLDER overnight Mon as that Low (in simple terms) reforms off the coast of WA & OR and essentially ‘parks' there from Tue through Thu.  

The Result.  On & off SNOW showers for all west side locations is probable for 3 days.  The higher, cumulative accumulations are likely from Longview to Ashland, but everyone should get an inch or two, at least, if all this model projection verifies.  (Some models suggest 5” to 10” in western OR.  Really?)  We should add that several different models are assembling a similar solution for next week.  As that Low spins to our west, COLD modified Arctic Air will gush out across the mountain passes and the usual Fraser & Columbia Gaps.  Burrrr.   Low temps should range from upper teens to low 20s, west side, in wind sheltered areas.  The wind should diminish by late Fri, and that Low will bring cold rain and possibly news-making low elevation snow to California. 

A new system is charting to drop in from the BC coast by Sat night Feb 25, with rain, rain/snow mix, or just plain snow across the PNW.  California will get in on the rain as that storm tracks  south.  Some solutions swing that same Low up into eastern OR by Tue Feb 28, with snow east side.  Long-range outlook is for March to start out very much like our weather next week - damp, snowy and cold.  Let’s winter through next week first.  

🔺Winter is likely to slam the west coast again.  Travel plans will be impacted, both air & road.  School delays and/or closures will also impact work routines.  Heed Nat’l Wx Service watches & warnings specific to your location, because they will, indeed, vary from our 'broad overview' type forecasts here at The Weather Café®️

A touch of The White will arrive later tonight and early Valentine’s Day.  Mug ready?

Patrons west of the Cascades, and esp here in Oregon, are likely to wake-up on Valentine’s Day with a touch of snow on the ground.  The ‘White Heart’ storm is pushing onshore as this is written.  Showers today (Mon Feb 13) will be intense at times, with graupel or hail at times, along with gusty winds.  Coast range/passes and Cascade range/passes will be hammered with snow.  Freezing levels will drop to near the surface overnight, so whatever moisture that falls should be SNOW.  A secondary Low is modeled to drift over OR very early Tue.  Depending on where the center of that Low moves onshore, sea level areas north will receive snowfall; south of the weak Low may not get as much snow, as a southerly breeze could keep the surface above freezing.  That said, we do expect many west side locations to receive an inch or less of snow; a few more inches if above 500 ft; over a foot on The White in the mountains.  If you are right under an intense shower - snowfall will be greater, for that moment.  

Tue night and early Wed expect ICY conditions on roads and walkways.  Don’t slip.  Temps will warm to seasonal norms during the week, with the next chance for precip arriving sometime on Fri, mainly over the north Puget Sound area.  The coming weekend looks mixed, with Sat being the drier of the two days; possible showers here & there on Sunday.  Overnight lows will continue to tease the freezing mark, if the sky clears in your location.

The week of Feb 20 - 24 does look damp, although the threat for a big snow event has waned (for now).  Strong cold Pacific storms will slam into the coastal areas of central BC, with the associated rain fields presenting rain & mountain snow to WA & OR.  As the week progresses, each Low center will track closer & closer to western WA, so we expect the intensity of the fronts to increase locally.  Snow levels will trend lower with each system, but since models now keep the overall track of these storms to the north - as compared to our earlier discussion - surface snow is not likely.

Quite like the week before, the weekend of Feb 25, 26 will bring on a couple strong storms to the PNW, with snow levels dropping to 1,000 ft with possible rain/snow mixed at times at the surface.  A cold pattern, if you will.  

Overall, the second half of February will provide an excellent addition to the PNW snowpack.  Stop by Fri for the next update.  Happy Valentine’s Day.

Is lots of snow in our long-range outlook?  Though remote, there is that chance.  Let’s get there first, shall we?

Showers today will continue as a Low spins south off the OR coast towards CA (where it will slide all the way to San Diego by Sunday).  Mild temps.  This weekend is looking fairly dry and on the mild side.  Super Bowl Sunday will be a decent ‘game day’ here in the PNW, so those not interested in viewing the game can get outside for commercial-free space.  The change towards the chance for “White Heart’ SNOW begins on Monday Feb 13.

Overnight Sunday, a cold front will slip over Vancouver Is. / NW WA.  By daybreak, the system will have pushed south into OR & east of the Cascades.   Early on, it will produce rain / Cascade snow, but as Monday evening arrives, temperatures will have dropped enough for rain/snow mixed quite near the surface, then potentially all snow before Tue morning.  As is the case when we get this type of pattern - the amount of moisture that remains once the colder air is in place ends up quite limited.  However, we will stick with the chance that most Patrons west of the Cascades are likely to see snowfall on Valentine’s Day, as the 'White Heart’ storm draws cold air into the region.  Accumulations are iffy, so don’t expect to make snowmen at sea level.  There is an outside chance for a secondary shot of moisture to develop over southern OR, opening the door for a bit more snow across areas south of Salem.  Just say’n.  

The cold front will drape across CA, so as the sky clears afterwards, FROST possible in California’s Big Valley.  The PNW could also be a bit ICY on Wed morning, if the sky clears in your area.  School delays should not be ruled out.  Dry & chilly during the break in precip on Wed, with very weak system modeled to bring a return to valley RAIN or showers & mountain snow late Thu into Fri, Feb 16,17.  Widely scattered showers possible Sat, with snow showers in the mountains, and over the eastern basins.  

Ponder Point.  Dare we write this portion? (Ah shucks, go for it.)  Long-range model scenarios hint at a MAJOR snow event for the PNW sometime in the Feb 21 through Feb 28 period.  Yes, of course, this is so far out there, but it has happened in the past, so read on.  Cold air is modeled to flow out over the eastern Pacific and then be turned onshore by a series of Low pressure systems spinning plenty of moisture - as SNOW - into the PNW.  Southern BC could literally be hammered with The White.  The cold cycle, snow threat could begin as early as Tue Feb 21, with snow levels dropping during that first cold front.  Surface snow looks iffy, as southerly winds should hold up the freezing level just a bit, esp the farther south one is in the PNW.  However, by late Wed Feb 22 & Thu Feb 23, all bets are off.  A STRONG system is charting to move into play, with plenty of ’snow-cold’ moisture expected.  WINDY to start, then as the center Low tracks south, models hint at plenty of surface snow across the entire PNW, with the coast also possibly in play.  High pressure Dome pooling Arctic air to the interior of BC, could set off cold winds from the Fraser Gap.  The snowy period may run a few days, Feb 22-26.  

The other, likely scenario is for the Pacific High to push in, keeping the PNW dry and mild during the period discussed above.  That said, models have repeated the colder solutions enough for us to present valley snow as a ‘Ponder Point’ while you sip that morn’n beverage.  We’ll update again in a few days.

The next couple of weeks will present a chance for The White.  Time to look ahead, morn’n beverage in hand.

A strong February storm system is about to arrive tonight through Tue.  The showers scattered around the PNW will diminish during the day, before the cold storm pushes onshore over Vancouver Is & NW WA first, then spreading south across OR.  This storm will bring plenty of rain, wind and over a foot of mountain snow.  Precip amounts in the lowlands should be 0.5’ - 1.5”; more along the coast & foothills.  It will be WINDY, esp over the Puget Sound area.  Valley winds may gust to 35 mph; stronger in the mountains, hence blizzard-like conditions if you are traveling over the passes later on Tue, where a foot of new snow is probable.  It will be cooler on Wed, as a few lingering showers pass behind Tue’s cold front.  

Dry Thursday the 9th.  Showers are possible on Fri to end the week.  Models argue with each other on this, as a Low offshore may track into CA, lowering the chances for PNW showers on Fri.  The coming weekend should be mostly dry, although we will not rule out showers over the far north corner of WA & Vancouver Is.

🔺 Now, the ‘White Heart Storm’ - we are monitoring a very cold system that is charting to arrive before sunrise on Valentine’s Day, Tue Feb 14.  This one will be the coldest storm in a few weeks, with the tease of snow/rain mixed, or all snow, at the surface.  The event will start Monday Feb 13 as 'White Heart' moves in from the NW.  This is a true ‘cold core’ system (our term) as the cold air mass will not be the classic Yukon Dome of High pressure moving south from the interior of Canada, rather it will be super cold air pooled over the NE Gulf of Alaska, and moving into the PNW as a Pacific winter storm.  So, a week from today (if models verify), rain will move in from the NW, similar to tonight’s storm.  Southerly winds will hold surface temps up before they drop later Monday night or early Valentine’s Day to allow snow at the surface, or very near so.  Temperatures could continue to cool down on Tue, helping to prevent the snow/rain or all snow from melting away too fast.  Interesting possibilities for a few inches of snow after the ‘White Heart’ cold front passes.  Expect an ICY commute Wed morning, Feb 15.

Although not as cold, another system will push onshore Thu Feb 16 with rain at first; then snow?  The center of the Low is modeled to track into CA, so cold air on the back side may yield rain/snow mix at the surface.  The other scenario is for cold air to pool east side, and be drawn west as that Low tracks south off the coast (this would mean valley snow, esp OR).  Either way, it looks quite chilly and wet Thu & Fri, with clearing from the north first on Saturday, as that storm brings rain/mountain snow to California.  Low snow levels in CA could make news.  It will be quite WET in California for a few days, Feb 18 through Feb 23.

Broadly speaking, the PNW will turn notably colder, with precipitation at times, over the next couple of weeks.  Frankly, the chance for surface SNOW is moderately high.  Keep the mittens handy and that Mug hot.

Quote today is from a WxCafé™️ Patron's voice message last Tue, Feb 1 (your host’s 70th B-Day): “It’s colder than a well digger’s shovel on the shady side of an iceberg in the middle of December.”   That certainly tipped my giggle box.

Showers & rain returning in an on/off pattern.  Let’s take a look ahead.

On/off dampness today, with WIND really kicking-up during the day as a Low moves onshore in southern Vancouver Island later this afternoon.  WIND gust up to 40 mph possible inland, esp OR.  Saturday should be mixed, with some precip, at times.  Not super wet.  Cooler on Sunday, with additional showers across the PNW.  

Monday is looking DRY, other than some showers over far NW WA & Vancouver Island later in the day.  However, that wet system will spread south overnight Monday, ushering in a wet Tuesday.  Wed is trending damp, esp north of Portland - cool temperatures, as well, with snow level around 1,000-1,500 ft.  

It should dry out overnight Wednesday for a long stretch of DRY WX from Thu Feb 9 through the following weekend into Tue Feb 14.  A big Dome of High pressure (>1050 mb) will center over Yellowstone Nat’l Park by Fri Feb 10 (next week).  This will set up a brisk EAST wind out of the Columbia Gorge (to a far lesser extent out of the Fraser Gap) late the 10th.  East winds will flow over the Sierra Nevada Range, as well.  Again, this dominant High should hold off any PNW rain until Valentine’s Day, Tue.  California likely to get damp overnight Sat the 11 into Sunday.

Following Valentine’s Day, PNW weather may return to a mix pattern of wet/dry, or, another Yukon cold air outflow could develop from the north.  We’ll monitor this closely.