Let’s just get right to it, shall we?  

For most of this week, the PNW will remain under the influence of that pesky Low offshore as it that literally circles round ’n round.  Sure, it will move north for a bit, then drop back into position, west of the coast, before finally moving onshore to end the work week.  That equates to an on/off shower pattern most of the week, although it should trend drier than the past couple of days.  Temps will remain cool.  By overnight Thu Mar 9, that Low will pull in moisture from the SW, so we can expect a steady RAIN to move onshore overnight Thu and last through Friday.  Cooler air returns behind the front, as it moves over ID will lower the freezing level, but not to the surface.  

This coming weekend has been trending dry again (good!), so we’ll forecast a decent sunny-after-some morning-fog weekend, although a tad on the cool side.  Time change, too.

By Sunday evening, the next Pacific storm will arrive, bringing plenty of steady rain from the Bay area in CA all the way north over southern BC through early Tue.  Snow around pass level.  

Models have been inconsistent for the Wed-Fri Mar 15-17 period.  The wind event on the Ides of March moved to St Patty’s Day, then dropped off the charts.  Let’s just say it will be quite WET, with the chance for rather windy conditions sometime in that period.  Hopefully, we can resolve the uncertainty by our next discussion on the 10th.

Looking long-term, what we hoped would be a decent Spring warm-up later in March is beginning to appear unlikely.  The overall pattern charting to shift back to below normal temps after the first day of Spring.  Keep the heavy coats handy.

Good morn’n, Patron ☕️.  We look ahead to warmer weather, sometime in 2027.  Seriously, here’s the latest long-range outlook.  Hint:  WET.

Staying cold.  The cold pattern will last at least another week.  Freezing level will remain low enough to spur rain/snow mix or plain snow at the surface just about everywhere west of the Cascades through next Wed.  The ‘best times & locations’ to have valley snow, will be overnight tonight into early Sat, similarly for Sunday morning, and again Tue night.  A relatively weak Fraser Gap outflow is possible, esp early next week; Columbia Gorge will have east winds when the surface Low roams west of Astoria.  

Speaking of that Low - a very interesting pattern is charting for 5 consecutive days.  A weak Pacific Low will drop in from the coast of BC this weekend (kicking off the snow tease), and then literally wander in a circle just off the west coast of OR / WA through Wed Mar 8.  Round & Round.  The result will be on/off cold showers, some with rain/snow mixed at the surface, and snow above 500-1,000 ft .  CHILLY days, for sure.  By Thu, the 9th, another, stronger Low will drop in from the NW, and set up an extended classic battle of cold/warm air masses over the west coast by Friday.

Going warmer.  On Friday next, the early stages of the atmospheric battle begins, as colder air from the north collides with warmer, sub-tropical air from the SW in a regional zone somewhere between central/southern OR and the Bay area of CA.  While WA & southern BC may not be completely dry, the bulk of the rain - sometimes heavy - will fall roughly from south of Salem into California.  Rainfall over the weekend of Mar 11,12 (time change) will be fairly minor, but as the week of the Ides of March unfolds, so too will the buckets of rain begin.  Models vary as to where the heaviest rain will fall (the fairly current term for this is ‘atmospheric river’) is primarily CA; Oregon will be slammed with rain, though, esp south of Salem.  As long term Patrons recall, these patterns often trigger strong wind fields; such will be the case.  We’ll narrow down where the wind will be strong as the event time nears (if models verify).  

Tucked into that extended stormy period, is a powerful storm on the Ides of March (Wed the 15th).  The system is currently charting to strike the San Francisco area with dangerous winds and flood-generating rainfall.  It will be a warm storm, as compared to the previous systems, so all the of unusually low elevation snowpacks will melt, contributing to flood issues.  Patrons beware- this system could easily track farther north.  Stay tuned.

Anyway, by late Thu Mar 16, a wet system will move north, aiming right at the PNW.  Rain will increase over all of OR and bring WA into the drip zone.  WINDY.  Note that CA will remain in a very wet pattern, so flooding concerns will only elevate heading into the weekend of Mar 18,19.

Broadly speaking, by the middle of March, the overall pattern should shift back to a seasonal norm, with rain and milder temperatures; low elevation snow around the PNW should end.  Spring flowers should begin to bud, along with Spring smiles and growers looking to work their land soon.

Overall, cooler than normal weather will remain in play for the next 10 days.  It will be on/off wet, as well.  Details with your morn’n Mug.

Cold air aloft, along with plenty of moisture, will drive rain, showers and low elevation snow (around 1,000 ft) into the PNW for much of the next several days.  Snow/rain mix at the surface is possible in a few locations, as is snow in NW WA, southern BC and the Columbia Gorge.  Wednesday may be the driest day of the week.  The coming weekend wx is looking mixed, with cold showers & mountain snow, with the bulk of storm energy drifting south into CA, continuing their low snow level events.  Sunday will be a bit drier than Sat.

Next week will start out relatively dry with some sun breaks & chilly.  Possible for Fraser Gap outflow to turn back on again later on Monday Mar 6, as a Low tracks south of the coast, and a high pressure ridge builds over the interior of BC.  Not super-cold.  Showers over the PNW will be in play all of next week, as no organized Pacific storm is on the charts.  FOG could develop in the usual locations.  Temps will be below normal all week.

The weekend of Mar 11,12 previously charted as mild and Spring-like.  Well, that is trending away, as a series of warm Pacific storms is now popping up on the charts for that weekend and beyond.  Steady rain likely Sat, with an increasing WIND field on Sunday.  The second storm will usher in warmer, southern flow air, but also produce WINDY conditions.  Daylight Savings Time begins that weekend, as well.

The 'middle week' of March is trending quite WET and stormy, both for the PNW & California.  We see the chance for colder air to return to our area by the weekend of Mar 18,19.  Not valley snow type, but a pattern in which thunderstorms and hail are probable. 

From the past: “People love goldfish because they like to see something with a mouth open that's not complaining."

When wx models miss the target by 50-100 miles, most people never notice.  BUT, if snow is involved, whoa, the error has large impact.  Such was the case these past few days, as the secondary Low we mentioned in our Monday discussion did form & stall farther north, which triggered more plenty of The White in many locations.  Winter is not done yet, so refill that morn’n beverage, and take in our ’spin’.

COLD, pleasant sunny day ahead, with Saturday starting out dry, as well.   Subfreezing temps are evident just about everywhere across the PNW.  Cold, heavy air now in place, so it will take a decent southerly flow to push it out of the area.  This is important because the next cold front is due to arrive Saturday afternoon over Vancouver Is & BC, then move south overnight Saturday.  All indications are for MORE SNOW at the surface in many locations, esp above 500 ft to start, then turn to mostly snow after the front passes.  Expect to see The White falling on Sunday.  There may be a small ‘pocket’ excluded from the surface snow south of Salem, but that could easily change, as we have just seen.

More moisture moving in from the west on Monday, Feb 27.  This system will be warmer at its core, but may not be strong enough to push all of the heavy, cold surface air out of the way as the moisture moves inland.  We’ll advise to be ready for another shot of low elevations snowfall west side as the Low approaches landfall around the mouth of the Columbia River.  FREEZING RAIN could also be a factor in areas farther away from the Columbia Gorge outflow zone.  With another Low approaching along a similar track, although a bit farther north, Tue Feb 28 presents a ‘repeat’ play to Monday’s system.  It is quite possible that enough warmer air aloft will mitigate frozen precip issues by Tue afternoon, except for elevations about 1,500 ft or so.  Temps will continue below normal.

Wed Mar 1st is trending DRY and on the chilly side.  Thu & Fri Mar 2,3 look damp, with surface rain and snow potentially as low as 1,000 ft, esp north of Portland.  The first weekend of March is trending dry and a tad warmer on Saturday, with another WET system expected by Sunday, as a Low tracks north offshore from the south.  Typical March storm.  Good news, is that we see a drying trend showing up on the charts for Tue Mar 7 through the following weekend of Mar 11,12.  That weekend is looking MILD and very Spring-like!

Banks, Post Office, Schools, Stock Markets - are all closed for the holiday; however, the weather is always 'working'.  Rumor has it that cherry pie is popular today, so, too, is a hot cup of coffee.  Mug ready?

The PNW will transition this evening back into ‘winter mode’ around the west coast.  A notable storm will arrive overnight, with lots of well-advertised snow in the mountains, coast range & foothills by morning.  Also, it will be WINDY!  Rain will not be too heavy, however, any showers, post frontal passage, could be of the thunder type, esp along the coast.  Several inches of snow will be falling just about everywhere above 1,000 ft.  

For those of us at sea level, or nearly so, we can expect some of The White, at times, to fall and STICK, as the air & ground turns colder each day this week.   Most of the straight snow should fall Wed & Thu although many will likely see snowfall late Tue evening or so.  The amount of snow is so uncertain, as every forecaster keeps telling us, because the moisture source will diminish after the cold front passes.  However, there is a weak Low modeled to form Thu, which could swing moisture into the western OR area for an additional tease of valley snow.  Portions of CA will also receive cold rain, low elevation snow, and frosty mornings later this week.  Strong Fraser River, and to a lesser extend, Columbia River Gorge, outflow wind will come into play, esp Wed/Thu.  

High temperatures on Thu or Fri could rival the coldest recorded west side in several decades (!) for this time of year.  Overnight lows will be in the lower 20s to upper teens; colder if out of the wind or on the east side.  Broadly speaking, this event may end up being the coldest of this winter.  Keep your skin protected, as wind chill will be quite low.  Dry & Cold Fri and Saturday.

There is another system that should arrive mid-to-late this coming weekend (Feb 25,26), which, depending on the track it takes, could bring additional snow above 1,000 ft and threaten valley snow or freezing rain, at times, if there is enough offshore flow mixing in.  Model solutions do suggest that the system will remain offshore as it tracks into CA; showers of rain/snow mixed possible, esp south of Salem Monday Feb 27.  

The week of Feb 27 - Mar 3 looks quite chilly and wet, with snow levels above the valley floor, but low enough to make travel over coast & Cascade ranges tricky.  It gets interesting again later on Fri Mar 3 because a similar COLD storm front is charting to move in from the northwest - with the same features as this week’s pattern.  Yes, very low snow levels,  including at the surface - are quite probable during the first weekend of March.  Icy roads & frost possible Monday Mar 6, while the PNW awaits yet another COLD, foothill snow-type storm from the NW.  Given the higher angle of pre-spring sunshine, these cold March storms often kick-off thundershowers over the west, with plenty of hail.  PNW & California snowpack will grow deeper. 

Back for our current event:  Just for the fun-of-it, we will throw out a few numbers.  There are model solutions that project a cumulative of 5 to 6 inches of snow from Salem south to Roseburg between Wed and Fri midnight, with a couple inches in Portland; another run projects 2”-3”; then another few inches in early March.  Much of NW WA will miss out on the snow, but the cold wind will be notable.  

Yes, when it comes to snowfall, forecasts and reality hardly ever match up around here.  Still, this week will offer the best chance for a decent Willamette Valley snow this winter.  Bundle up and have fun waiting.  No harm in that!