Looks like the PNW will soon get a favorable ‘turn’ toward Summer weather pattern.  Let’s hope this verifies.

 

A WET weekend is still on tap, as the ‘jet stream’ directs moisture-saturated air over the PNW.  Washington got the drenching yesterday; Oregon is on tap for much of the moderate-to-heavy rain this weekend.  Because of the very warm air mass aloft, heavy rain over the mountains not only melts some of the snowpack, but also raises stream & river levels notably.  Our large ‘main stem’ rivers will be impacted, esp the Columbia.  Expect rain turning to showers by later on Sunday, with showers diminishing from south-to-north as next week begins.

 

The Turn.  Models hint at a Low pressure system remaining off the OR coast by the middle of next week, so we’ll go with a very slight chance for a shower on Thu, but overall after Tue we see a stretch of drying out and WARMING for western portions of the PNW.  The weekend of Jun 11,12 is trending rather MUGGY, with a Low moving N out of Nevada across eastern WA that will usher in rather intense showers/thunderstorms over the eastern portions of OR, WA and possibly ID.  Some of that moisture may push out of the Cascades into southern OR, as far north as Salem overnight Sat.  Early yet, but we may be in for quite a ‘light show’ the night of Jun 11. 

 

Other than that threat for storms cells drifting west next weekend, western portions of the PNW should remain DRY and warm.  In fact, if models verify, temperatures later in the week of Jun 13-17 are likely to pop into the 90s (esp southern OR and east side) - for the first time in 2022.  Ponder point: will that be the first heat wave of 2022?  For now, it looks like onshore flow will cool the west side down by Sunday, Jun 19.  California will toasty hot.

 

 

 

The longest day for daylight is still a couple weeks away, but for today, we collectively remember that monumental event is 1944.  Our wet Spring will continue for another week or so.  Here’s the latest outlook.

 

It will turn dry & mild starting later this afternoon and on Tue.  The next quick short-shot of limited precip set to arrive overnight Tue.  Wed should be another dry day before, sadly, yet another round of rain could arrives sometime on Thu.  Models differ as to the extend of the rainy period starting this Thu on into the weekend; some train the moisture up over NW WA and BC, others target moderate rain over the northern half of western OR, as well.  Either way, the event could be one for the ‘books’, as the amount of precipitation could break records for a June storm, depending on just where that ‘jet stream’ and subtropical moisture streams onshore.  If it tracks mainly into WA, OR conditions will be on the warm side & dry.  For Patrons in farm country north of Seattle, yikes, another drenching. 

 

Across the PNW, this coming weekend should be the last 2 damp days before a dry spell develops.  High pressure over the Gulf of Alaska may finally start to replace that broad trough of Low pressure (as we discussed last time), setting up a cool, but dry, onshore breeze (quite strong at times) for the period of Mon-Fri, Jun 13-17.  The weekend of June 18,19 may experience a few showers by Sunday evening, but right now, that weekend charts as dry, mild.

 

As the Summer Solstice (Tue Jun 21) approaches, a cool Low pressure zone may work its way south along the inland passage, setting up cloudy days and possible showers by late Wed or Thu, Jun 22,23. 

 

Overall: unfortunately, a generally wet period remains on the charts for the next week before the PNW may finally catch a dry break.  We sure hope so.

 

 

 

A soaker weekend is on the way.  At least growers had a few days to work the land ahead of time.  Refill your Mug. 

 

Rain will be the news this weekend, as will potentially strong thunderstorms over portions of western Oregon.  Yes, it will be breezy, but not as much as last weekend.  Details: a Low is moving towards the OR coast, but this time, the models turn its track north rather than across OR.  Result will be plenty of rain and not as strong a wind field as the previous wind event.  Precipitation amounts should range from 3/4" to 3” depending on elevation.  On Sunday, Patrons across OR should be prepared for THUNDERSTORMS - which could develop into strong, dangerous cells.  Heed Nat’l Wx Service alerts.

 

Next week will be drier & warm again.  The exception could be the far NW corner of WA / Vancouver Island, as a system may dump more rain Thu night into Fri.  We’ll review this in our next report.  The weekend of Jun 12,13 is trending on the seasonal dry side, with limited showers, primarily east side.   

 

As the middle of June arrives, we are noting a big change in the upper-air and large-scale surface pattern.  For the past couple of months, a broad Low pressure trough has lingered over the Gulf of Alaska, coupled with a strong ‘jet stream’.  The resulting damp, cool weather dominated April & May.  While a bit early to confirm, the long-range model solutions hint of a broad Pacific High over the Gulf of Alaska - a pattern which sets up dry, mild summer weather for the PNW.  This doesn’t mean no precip, but it does signal a change back to normal PNW weather, as compared to the past 2 months.  Also, we are continuing to be under the influence of a cool La Niña pattern (see image below), so any onshore flow of air will help keep the lid on serious heat-ups.  If High pressure builds from the desert SW or California, then a heat wave will be more likely.  Keep that Mug handy.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Brief update:

• The week will turn dry until late Fri or early Sat., with potentially the warmest day of the year mid-week.  Patrons in the far NW corner of the region will see clouds and maybe a shower sometime on Thu.
• The coming weekend looks damp - esp on Saturday - with mild temperatures.  Breezy.
• Week of June 6-10 is charting as dry & mild, with the possibility of rather WARM temps late in the period.  Models differ on that, as another damp pattern may commence on the 10th or hold off until that weekend, June 11,12. If the system holds off until Sat, temps on Fri could top in the 80s in many locations.
• Week of June 13 is modeled to start out dry for OR, with clouds and cool temps over the Puget Sound.

 

Warm weather returns after a stormy holiday weekend.  Washington & BC will be spared the brunt of the storm, but all will receive rain.  Refill your morn’n bev and come back here for the details. 

 

STORM ALERT - for Patrons in Oregon, mainly south of Salem area and for those traveling / camping in the Cascades.  Today will be calm, with some showers here and there.  Peeks of sunshine are possible, as well.  It will be mild.  The action starts Saturday the 28th.  As mentioned in our last discussion, the system due in tomorrow will be quite a powerful storm for this late in May.  Let’s break it down:

 

 

• RAIN.  Much of western OR could receive up to an inch of precipitation on the valley floor, double that for the coast and coastal mountains.  Patrons in WA & on Vancouver Island will receive considerably less rain; still, umbrella time.  
• WIND.  Strong winds at the coast (gusts could exceed 45 mph) esp south of Newport.  Depending on where the center of the storm makes landfall (could be Lincoln City plus or minus 75 miles north or south), Willamette Valley wind gust around 30-35 mph are probable.  Strongest winds charting for late afternoon into Saturday evening. Gusty overnight, as well.  Secure your gear (even at home, if you will be away)
• SNOW.  As the storm moves east, colder air will arrive, dropping the snow level below the passes.  As much as a foot of snow is possible at the higher elevations, half that at pass level.  Be prepared for winter conditions, which can be just as dangerous if they last several hours as when they last several days.

On Sunday, the storm will have past, but there will be showers & possible mountain thunderstorms lingering behind the front.  Temperatures will be chilly.  Memorial Day is trending mostly DRY and turning warmer by a few degrees for all elevations.  

 

Tue through the end of the short work/school weak looks WARM (could be in the upper 70s, to lower 80s on Wed).  It will turn muggy towards the end of the week; Thu could be damp in the eastern portions of WA.  Fri may present thunderstorms in the Cascades, esp southern districts of OR.  

 

The weekend of June 4,5 is trending mild, with muggy conditions; showers possible, as will be periods of cloudiness.  Actually, typical June weather for strawberry picking, if the berries are ripe yet.

 

The week of June 6 is on track to start out mild & mostly dry, turning WET and turning cooler as the week progresses.  The NW corner of WA & southern BC may get showers on Mod the 6th.  It does look mixed for the second weekend in June, with some precipitation & sun breaks.  Seasonal temps.