The Weather Cafe ® by Rufus

Written by Rufus La Lone since 1994.

Blow'n in the Wind

Posted by Rufus La Lone on

Heading into a holiday weekend, so we’ll try to keep this brief.  Yeah right.  Mug up, Patron.
Sunshine & warmth will be the rule for the next 6 days.  It will turn “hot” early next week, as the overall pattern shifts into an August-type mode for a few days.  Expect temps to pop into the upper 80s & low 90s by Tue & Wed next week.  In the meantime, it should warm into the 80s as the holiday weekend progresses.  Water managers will need to maintain soil moisture, as one of the driest (RECORD dry for some PNW locations) Spring seasons continues into June.
The next cool down should begin on Thu June 3 because the onshore flow (our regional air conditioner) will kick back on again.  Windy (more on this below).  Marine cloud deck could linger, esp for Puget Sound Patrons, with a shower possible over southern BC.   
A change.  The weekend of Jun 5,6 is now trending away from being hot, to being windy & cool.  The dry pattern will continue, although a couple model runs suggest some precip mainly over western WA & BC.  Coolness rolls on into the following week, along with, what will be by then, a pestering wind.  The next time temps warm up, although for only a day or two, will be Wed or Thu Jun 9,10.  Cooler & windy, yet again, for the weekend of Jun 12,13.  Yikes.  All this could change back to warm or hot, but for now, that’s what the models indicate.  And now, the wind —
Many have noticed that this exceptionally DRY Spring has also had more than the usual number of days with winds blowing strong enough to hinder farm applications or even damage tender buds.  While not the ‘dust bowl’ pattern of the Great Plains in the 30s, it has definitely been windy inland from the coast.  Yesterday (May 27), winds around the region sure got some attention.  Your host (one of '3 Pumpkineers' here in Albany) had to provide extra support for the Giant Pumpkin plants being grown in our retirement community gardens (first timers, all).  Hazelnut grower concerns have also been expressed here at The WxCafé (TM) counter.  As noted above, there are several more days ahead of unusually high inland winds.  Double yikes.  There’s always something to battle when in the realm of agriculture, right?  “The answer my friend, is blow’n in the - - -"
Let’s go with mild temps, breezy afternoons in the June 13-15 period.  Oh, and no much needed precipitation.  
“Count your life by deeds, not by years."
Copyright © 1994-2021 - All Rights Reserved - The Weather Café ®
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Heat Up Possible

Posted by Rufus La Lone on

Monday May 24
Last week of the fifth month.  The arrival of hot weather in June is looking likely, so Patron, appreciate the cool dampness while it is present.  We’re appreciating a hot Mug of java on this cool May Monday, too (java is an historic term carried from the introduction of coffee, by the Dutch, to SE Asia - including the island of Java in the 1600s).
Rather damp today into Tue.  Wed should be a bit warmer & drier, before the last of the current series of disturbances passes by Wed night through Thu.  The likely sound of rain on the roof Wed night will be appreciated by many.  As the holiday weekend gets set to start, Fri will present as dry & mild.  
Memorial Day weekend:  turning warmer by the day; in fact, by Sunday the 80 degree mark is possible in several western OR locations.  Even warmer on Memorial Day.  Keep those men & women who gave their lives for our freedom & country foremost in your thoughts on the 31st.
As June gets underway, expect the wx patten to remain in a dry, almost hot, mode - upper 70s to upper 80s possible - for a couple more days.  Then, on Thu the 3rd, a weak system may clip Vancouver Island & NW WA with some showers & breezy conditions.  Much cooler.  Most of OR will remain dry, cooler.  NOTE: it may be VERY WINDY east of the Cascades, including ID.  This system will create a notable stir of wind on the ground as it moves east.  
1st Heat Up ??  Well, with the month of June underway, we are following indications for the first PNW heat up of the year developing in time for the weekend of Jun 5,6.  Temps in the 90s possible west side of OR, with a triple digit tease for Medford; upper 80s in much of western WA.  We are not yet forecasting as a ‘heat wave’ because the conditions may not last 3 consecutive days.  The extended-range outlook is for a cool down (onshore air conditioning kicks in) Mon & Tue Jun 7,8 knocking off 10-12 degrees from the highs.  BUT, heat may return again by mid-week, with temps threatening 90s again Wed Jun 9 into the following weekend.  Stay tuned.
WELCOME to the new OVS website.  I will now be able to post images, graphs, etc., as needed to provide supportive info for this blog.  Thanks for your patience!
“Anytime the future looks gray, I have an attic full of yesterdays."
Copyright © 1994-2021 - All Rights Reserved - The Weather Café ®
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Warming on the way

Posted by Rufus La Lone on

Friday May 21
A bit warmer this weekend, with showers possible at times, although not nearly as many as the past 2 days.  Sunday should be the drier of the two.  
Cooler but dry in CA this weekend.   As a Low positions over NW Nevada, thunderstorms become possible along the eastern slopes of the Cascades, esp OR.  Windy for ID potato country.
A pair of weak Lows will drift down the BC coast early next week, so expect a marine cloud deck to hang around in the mornings, along with the chance for a few west side showers.  Cooler Tue & Wed May 25,26, similar to last week, without as many thunderstorms.  Windy east side later on Wed.  A drier air mass sets up as the coming week ends, with sunny skies & mild Spring temps heading into the holiday.
The holiday weekend is trending dry & mild, with the chance for showers over Vancouver Is. on Memorial Day; dry elsewhere, with morning clouds, esp along the coast.  Models have drifted away from the rather warm (upper 70s, low 80s) Saturday; however, we will not rule out that, over the course of the holiday, the region’s temps could range as the warmest in over 10 days.  Hope.
June will start out dry (except for a few showers over Vancouver Island & maybe the far NW corner of WA).  Temperatures should end up a few degrees warmer than the holiday period.  80s possible for portions of OR.  There have been model indications that as the week after Memorial Day progresses, so too will the chance for thunderstorms east of the Cascades.  Patrons east side may experience very powerful storm cells in the Thu - Fri Jun 3,4 period (storms may be INTENSE, resulting in localized flooding / flash flood type concerns - stay alert!).  Windy in ID, stormy too.  Again, this does not show up on all of the model runs, but warrants a mention at this time.
The first weekend in June looks dry west side, with gusty winds over southern OR & northern CA; east side should begin to calm down - if all that storm action verifies.
“Patience is something you admire in the driver behind you and don’t understand in the one ahead."
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Posted by Rufus La Lone on

Mixed Pattern
Mix of dry & wet days ahead, cooler as well.  Fill up your Mug & meet back here in 3 - 2 - 1 -

Foggy morning in places, others with morning sunshine.  A rather weak front will bring on a bit of rain later Sat, on into early Sunday.  Gusty east winds ’through the passes' & Columbia River Gorge ahead of the front.  Short break in the precip is on tap Mon for most of the PNW, except rain & breezy over Vancouver Is. & the far NW corner of WA.  This system is likely to drape a band of rain/showers across the rest of the PNW on Tue Dec 8.  Models are quite variable for the arrival of 'mid-week rain’ - could be late Wed or sometime on Thu.  This one will have decent amount of cold air behind the front, so snow shower levels will drop by late Thu, maybe even below 2,000 ft.  It will clear and dry out following the cold front, so expect ICY conditions develop, should the sky clear in your locations early Fri morning the 11th.  

The weekend of Dec 12,13 is looking wet on Sat, with dry, chilly conditions for Sunday.  Monday Dec 14 should turn wet from north-to-south, with moderate rain possible in western WA & BC.  On/off episodes of rain & mountain snow will be the story for that week (Dec 14-18).  Rather windy, at times, esp for BC, WA and NW OR.  That said, locations south of Salem or Eugene may not get much precip during the week, as the systems will be focused on the northern areas of the PNW.   

Ponder Point: over the past several days, models had toyed with a decent WIND producer in the Dec 13-15 period, followed by a threat for very low - if not at the surface - snow levels by the Fri Dec 18.  While this is now ‘gone’, we should be alert for that famous model ‘regression’ to earlier solutions as an event period nears.  We’ll see.
Chilly & overall dry conditions are possible for the weekend of Dec 19,20.  A waaaaaay out there, long-range peek at Christmas wx suggests that a ridge of High pressure may build over the west coast after the 20th, setting up the potential for a rather mild Christmas, wet or dry.   Don’t bet the Egg Nog yet.
“Some people never get interested in anything until it is none of their business."
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