The WxCafe™

Pleasant Pattern

Posted by Rufus La Lone on May 26, 2023

Friday May 26

The PNW will experience pleasant, dry conditions as May ends and June begins. Periodic thunderstorms & showers over the eastern basins are possible, but the west side should remain dry & mild. Mug up. Read on.

An onshore breeze will remain Nature’s air conditioner over the PNW for the next 2 weeks. Occasionally, mountain showers will pop up, with an expanded area of thunderstorms possible over the eastern portions of OR, WA and ID this holiday weekend (and again around June 5,6). Temperatures will remain mild, ranging from the lower 70s to lower 80s.

In general, this type of Spring pattern is stable and lasting, so expect little change in the weather through at least June 10, when west side showers are possible as a weak front approaches the coast.

Portion of Hubbard Glacier (~6 miles wide & 300+ ft high at water line) advancing into Disenchantment Bay. Lack of cloudiness is quite rare in these parts. Hubbard actively calfs icebergs into the bay, with stunning resulting colors. This one floated by our veranda May 17, 2023. We are 1 mile from the glacier.

-Rufus

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Mild & Dry

Posted by Rufus La Lone on May 22, 2023

Monday May 22

Back in the Café. We’ll post a few images with the next several forecast updates from an amazingly warm, sunny Alaska cruise. Thanks for your patience during the absence. Here’s the dry outlook.

Mild temperatures, with afternoon breezes will be the general rule for the next couple of weeks. The onshore breeze will weaken a bit later this week, meaning warmer afternoons & less cloudiness.

The US holiday weekend is trending cooler, with increasing cloudiness, esp north of Chehalis for Sat & Sunday, a tad warmer on Memorial Day May 29. We cannot exclude a shower or two over the northern Puget Sound, southern BC, but overall, not enough moisture to set farming or outdoor activity back.

The week after Memorial Day is looking dry, with slightly warmer temperatures as the short work week ends. A weak front may pass by Tue, raising the chance for a shower here & there over the Puget Sound, similar to the weekend.

The first 7 days of June also chart as dry, with temps on the mild side, along with an onshore breeze increasing by Fri Jun 2 on through that weekend. Models indicate a warmer start to the Jun 6-9 week.

Overall, no major heat is foreseen over the next couple of weeks and no broad area rainfall. Good news for early Jun graduation ceremonies.

View looking east towards Sitka, as we sailed southbound across the Sitka Sound, Thu May 18. Temp was 74 that day! The rugged mountains of Baranof Island hold Sitka at their base. (Fun Fact: Sitka is the largest city in America by land mass as nearly the entire Baranof Island is in the city limits. Everything is big in Alaska.)

-Rufus

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Pleasant May

Posted by Rufus La Lone on May 12, 2023

As a reminder, Rufus is out on travel and will not be posting his normal Monday 5/15/23 and Friday 5/19/23 blogs.

Friday May 12

Summer-like pattern arrives this weekend, with plenty of sunny, warm days to follow afterward. Let’s take a peek.

The much advertised ‘heat’ is setting up for the weekend, and possibly early next week. Temps could reach 90 or better in some locations, but we do not foresee that level of heat for more than two afternoons. Don’t take this wrong, it will remain pleasantly warm for a couple of weeks, it’s just that we don’t see a 'classic heat wave' (3 consecutive days of 90 or more in the shade) developing this time around.

We will also be having periods of thunderstorm cells forming along the Cascades & over eastern OR, WA & ID through Tue, as well. Reason: a Low will spin along the OR coast - moving north (unusual) - setting off muggy conditions and the storms. Later in the forecast period - as in the week before Memorial Day holiday weekend - a greater chance for wide-spread boomers will return.

Later next week, an onshore breeze will pick up a bit, cooling the afternoons down a few degrees from ’too hot’. The following weekend and thereafter through at least May 29th looks DRY (excluding the east side thunderstorms, as noted above), with westerly breezes holding temperatures in the pleasant range for outdoor activity & farming.

NOTE: Your host will be on a remarkably dry, warm and probably rain-free cruise to Alaska starting this weekend (route image below). These days, ships have wifi available, but often it is NOT fast enough to load the wx model datasets required to prepare your forecasts. SO, if you do not find an update here on Mon & Fri next week, that is the reason. It took me until my 70th year of life to have this opportunity. Good thing is, long-range PNW weather should be stable and welcoming for all, so missing a couple forecasts should be fine. Yes, we’ll drop an image or two here once we return!

“We travel not to escape life, but for life not to escape us." -Unknown

-Rufus

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Going for 16 Days

Posted by Rufus La Lone on May 08, 2023

Monday May 8

Couple of damp days and then - bam, HEAT. Build up that ice supply, Patron.

As noted last week, a Low is positioned just west of Brookings and spinning up moisture from the S-SE. This typically sets up thunderstorm action over the Cascades & east side, with the chance for a few ‘boomers’ west side, as well. Some of the showers could be intense. Western WA & BC should remain mostly dry. Temperatures everywhere will be mild.

HEAT UP. Our first stretch of hot weather is on tap for this weekend. Temps will warm rapidly after Wed the 10th, with a peak high in the series expected on Sunday. Probably 90 - 90+ in western OR; 80s to 90 on north into southern BC. The heat will be a bit of a shock to plants & people, so be prepared. Fortunately, temperatures will begin to cool down a few degrees after Sunday May 14, as the High pressure ridge weakens & shifts. Still on the hot side east of the mountains. Model solution vary, however, most resolve to another broad Low across the Gulf of Alaska, re-building the warm High pressure ridge west of the coast (vs right over the top of us this weekend). For now, we’ll call for temps in the seasonal range (70s) and dry, with morning marine clouds at times, for the week of May 15-19.

The weekend of May 20,21 is trending dry, with an onshore breeze. Pleasant, actually. Some precip may work north over the eastern basins during that weekend, or at least during the early part of the May 22-26 period; continued dry & mild for the rest of the PNW as we approach the 2023 Memorial Day holiday weekend.

Bottom line: Very warm temperatures, mainly this Fri - Sunday, followed by seasonally cooler & continued dry wx through at least May 26. That’s 16 consecutive days without rain (west side), if model solutions verify.

Repeat from 2008: “The larger the island of knowledge, the longer the shoreline of wonder.” (Yeah, a bit mushy, but worth a retake.)

-Rufus

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The Delightful Dozen

Posted by Rufus La Lone on May 05, 2023

Friday Cinco de Mayo 2023

A dozen donuts? A dozen eggs? Twelve dollars? Fill your morn’n Mug and read on to find out.

Broadly speaking, a Low over BC, along with one just west of Brookings, will ‘bracket’ the PNW will periods of cloudiness & showers (or thunderstorms in the usual places), along with mild temps & sun breaks from today through the weekend on into Wed May 10. This pattern doesn’t mean wet every day, just one that could bring on a shower or two just about everywhere, along with decent sun breaks. Pleasant temps.

The Low west of Brookings will be joined by a stronger one that will move in from the west to start next week. This will usher in rather muggy wx for much of OR, with WA & BC areas remaining mostly dry, mild. Thunderstorms along the southern & central OR Cascades and the eastern basins are probable. Temps will continue to be mild.

The Delightful Dozen. Now, the basis for our tag line. Delightful Spring (even summer-like) weather is on the way starting Thu May 11 and lasting at least a dozen days. NO RAIN, a few clouds, and temperatures tapping into the mid-70s to 80s across most of the PNW, including the Puget Sound, all of southern BC for nearly two weeks is the forecast. For real? We can’t promise, but the models have been pointing to this solution for several days now with a consistency that warrants confidence. (Admittedly, that wet, stormy period mentioned in our last forecast was obviously an outlier, and should have been ignored.)

Your host is doubly delighted because we will be cruising for the first time to Alaska May 14-21. Weather along the entire SE Alaska coast during that week is trending nearly perfect for such an experience.

Water managers should be preparing for an extended WARM period. Notable Day Degree / Heat Unit accumulation will finally take place. Bloom period with several crops will be blessed with favorable pollination weather. Buzzzzz. Unfortunately for some, pollen allergens will be elevated.

Warmest period of The Delightful Dozen should be Sunday May 14 - Wed May 17. Eastern basins are likely to get showers & thunderstorms late May 17 through Fri May 19. It will be cooler west side after the 17th, as an onshore breeze kicks-in, but remain dry and mild until at least Wed May 24. Yeah, that adds a couple days to our ‘Delightful Dozen’, if we are Spring-lucky. Enjoy!

“A thing done right means less trouble tomorrow.”

-Rufus

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