The WxCafe™

Variability

Posted by Rufus La Lone on August 22, 2022

Monday August 22

A few adjustments, as expected, are indicated in the long-range wx outlook. Is your morn’n beverage ready?

Relatively mild temps today & tomorrow the 23rd. A Heat-up is “on” for Wed and Thu, with the later being the hottest of the week. Both afternoons in the 90s for western OR; slightly cooler for NW WA. The final weekend of August 2022 is trending cooler, as the onshore flow picks up again on Fri Aug 26th. A weak surface Low is charting to sag across SW WA Fri night/Sat morning, ushering in some of the cooler temps of the month, and drizzle along the coast. Breezy east side, esp SE OR. A tad warmer on Sunday.

The final days of August are charting as HOT, with temps threatening to top triple-digits in a few western OR locations. The heat cranks up on Tue Aug 30 and may last through the balance of the week. It will warm considerably across the northern tier of the PNW, as well.

Labor Day Weekend: Here’s where model runs vary considerably. Some solutions bring another Low pressure trough directly over the PNW beginning Fri Sep 2, for showers and breezy, cool holiday temperatures; other solutions extend the heat-up through Sat of the holiday weekend by keeping that Low offshore, tracking to the south, then turning onshore sometime late Sat night, for a mild Sunday & warmer Monday Sep 5. We’ll peek at this again later this week.

The week after Labor Day is trending warm-to-hot, so don’t put the watering cans away just yet.

Topical Tropical: the current quiet period the 2022 hurricane season may be coming to an end. Atmospheric conditions west of Africa are becoming favorable for major development of the Lows moving off the continent. It’s possible for a named storm (DANIELLE or EARL) to threaten the eastern seaboard of the USA right after the Labor Day holiday. Stay tuned, esp if you are traveling to the east coast.

Third Cup ☕️☕️☕️ — We likely heading into the 3rd consecutive fall/winter season of a La Niña pattern. The last time this has happened was 1950. The May and June 2022 readings were some of the lowest temperature variances on record (going back to 1850). Water management agencies across the desert SW & CA are concerned that this could portend a continuance of regional droughts. We’ll present an informal review of this later in September.

“Nothing increases the size of the fish like fishing by yourself."

-Rufus

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Some Pleasant Some Hot

Posted by Rufus La Lone on August 19, 2022

Friday August 19

A pleasant cool-down today, with more heat on the way soon. Mug refilled? Good.

As expected, the onshore flow was turned on rapidly last night, cooling down the region and setting up a pleasant sunny weekend. There is some precip falling over the Puget Sound on the leading edge of a weak front this Fri morning. Enjoy the refreshment.

The summer ridge of High Pressure will rebuild next week so that by Wed, temps will pop back up into the uncomfortable range. Thursday is likely to be the hottest day next week (with a triple-digit reading possible in some west side locations). What was looking to be an extended heat wave lasting on through Fri the 26 plus the Aug 27th-28th weekend is now charting as a ‘repeat’ of the current pattern. Meaning, next Fri could also present a cool-down onshore flow for relief from the heat. That is the newest trend for the past few model runs. Let’s go with it for now.

As implied, the last weekend of August will be warm, but pleasantly so. The next HEAT WAVE is looking to develop during the week of Aug 29 - Sep 2. While tweaking back & forth as to the ‘start' date, all indications are for a substantial heat up as August ends. Early Sep is also looking quite HOT (95-105). Temps could ramp up rapidly as early as Mon the 29th, or pause a couple of days until mid-week. The hot wx could last 5-7 days, although some model solutions limit the heat to 3 or 4 days (normal for such patterns, esp in late summer). We’ll see.

For now, plan on having warm-to-hot summer wx conditions for the next couple of weeks, give or take a mild afternoons (80s) scattered therein. On the plus side, the humidity should be in a more comfortable range, as compared to the past few days of sweat-city.

“A steering committee is four people trying to park a car.”

-Rufus

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A Late August Heat Wave ??

Posted by Rufus La Lone on August 15, 2022

Monday August 15

Several dog days of summer on the way. We can always expect a variation in the weather outlook, so read on for the latest adjustment.

This will be a warm-to-hot week around the great PNW. Wed & Thu remain the hottest days in our forecast this week, although clouds may tap down temps a bit in OR on Thu because of possible mid-level moisture could set off thunderstorms late Wed into Thu. Keep alert for this, as it is a new twist for the week. Friday continues to look very pleasant, as Nature will turn on the onshore marine ‘air conditioner’.

The weekend ahead should be pleasant; it will trend a few degrees warmer than Fri. Puget Sound Patrons could see some drizzle and cloudiness late Sunday, as a weak Low pushes onshore. Iffy.

For Mon - Fri, Aug 22-26, the wx models are now trending much warmer than our last report. It will start out pleasant on 26th, with each day ticking up the afternoon highs. What looked to be a mild temperature day to start the Oregon State Fair on the 26th, is now charting to be the beginning of yet another HOT streak for the PNW. The onshore flow stops completely and the 'oven door’ of the desert SW gets left open - setting up another round of triple-digits in areas across the PNW during the final days of August 2022.

East side thunderstorms possible late Sunday the 28 into Monday the 29th. HEAT is now charting well into the last day of August. We present this as a possibility, as earlier computer runs suggested milder conditions. As we have said many times, those older projections frequently end up the most accurate, so it may not get that hot. Let’s hope so.

In the meantime, enjoy the 'dog days’ of August this week while anticipating the broad cool down next week.

“The reason the cow jumped over the moon was because there was a short circuit in the milking machine."

-Rufus

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Normal August Pattern

Posted by Rufus La Lone on August 12, 2022

Friday August 12

It’s going to warm up again. Here are the details.

After a pleasant weekend ahead, temps will begin to edge upward into the 90s next week. Wed & Thu are likely to be the hottest of the week, with mid-upper 90s for just about all locations inland a bit from the coasts of OR, WA. Puget Sound? Yeah, toasty there, as well. Triple digits possible in the usual hot spots, such as southern OR and, as the week progresses, the Columbia basin.

Relief? By Fri Aug 19, the onshore ‘fan’ will turn back on, but it is modeled to be just strong enough to tap down afternoon highs a bit, west side. The weekend of Aug 20,21 is trending notably cooler than the previous week, even for eastern locations. We do not see major thunderstorm action, at this time.

Week of Aug 22-26 is trending a bit warmer for a couple of days, then cooling down into the pleasant range the start up of the Oregon State Fair on the 26th. No rain on the charts, either by thunderstorm or pacific storm. The last weekend of August is charting as ’summer-warm’, with temps climbing back into the upper 80s, to low 90s, west side.

Overall, we forecast dry & warm-to-hot for the remainder of August. Let’s call it ’normal’. Enjoy.

The successful can lay a firm foundation with the bricks that others throw at them."

-Rufus

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Normal Outlook

Posted by Rufus La Lone on August 08, 2022

Monday August 8

The final month of Summer is moving along just as fast as 2022 in general. A few adjustments in the long-range forecast, which is why you grabbed that Mug and arrived here, right?

Hot today (90s; lower in the Puget Sound area), with cooler marine air seeping in as the week progresses. The mid-level moisture (mentioned in our last report) training up from the south is tracking a bit farther west than expected, so a shower and/or thunderstorm is possible over western valleys, esp OR; WA could also gets a shot between now and Wed. As the weekend approaches, temperatures will warm up a few degrees - which is a change - with dry conditions. Still, temps should remain seasonal and not push into the 90s, excluding the usual hot spots in southern OR & east side.

Next week is charting to be dry, with up & down afternoon temps. Warmest days could be Wed & Thu Aug 17,18 - upper 80s for the Willamette Valley. The weekend of Aug 20,21 is now looking warm vs cool in our last update. Again, the outlook is not calling for 90+, just seasonal for Aug, as an onshore flow should hold western valley temps in the pleasant summer-warm mode. Monsoonal moisture may train north along the eastern slopes of the Cascades, or SE OR & the potato lands of ID.

Topical Tropical: that time of year for tropical storm action. After a quiet start because of a persistent Sahara Desert Dust layer, atmospherics in the Atlantic are changing slowly. There are indications that the monsoons of western Africa are increasing, the waves of which set up the action necessary for Atlantic hurricane formation. We see such a system that could, just maybe, begin to make news as it tracks towards the SE US coast by the weekend of Aug 20,21. More info as warranted.

Finally, for the PNW, the week of Aug 22-26 is currently charting as seasonal, with temps in summer-mode and onshore breeze helping moderate afternoon highs. Perfect, if that verifies.

‘Song of Summer’ reports from our Patrons are coming in from Spokane to Eugene. The sound of cricket chirps for the Summer of 2022 are just getting started. The first chirps here in south Albany were heard on Fri Aug 5. Thanks!

“Nothing makes it more difficult to understand teen-agers than listening to what they say."

-Rufus

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