A real mix of wx coming up during the next 14 days, so be patient and you will likely get what you want.  For now, grab your Mug, Patron.

The expected rain for today has been delayed several hours because the Low has stalled off the coast of southern OR / northern CA.  It will spin to the NE, driving a decent amount of precipitation across primarily OR before Wed afternoon; some precip will fall under thunder & lightning.  Temps will remain cool for early September.  We still see the first couple of days of the Mt Angel Oktoberfest as dry & pleasant (O’Fest runs Thu - Sun, Sep 11-14).

The coming Sep 13,14 weekend continues to looks WET for Sat night through Sunday.  Washington State should pick up more moisture from this system vs the current one. The O’Fest crowd will hope for another rain delay, like today’s (Sep 8). 

Dry during the week of Sep 15-19, with a temperatures warming notably by late week (80s & low 90s).  Two hurricanes may have US impact as the week ends - see below.

We see the weekend of Sep 20,21 as dry and warm.

Week of Sep 22-26:  Fall Equinox occurs on Mon Sep 22.  That day, as well as the rest of the week is trending dry and pleasantly warm.  

🌀Tropical Topical:  What happened to GABRIELLE (‘GAB’)?  Well, a large portion of Saharan Dust rolled into the path of what was a developing hurricane (to be named ‘GAB’), and crushed the attributes needed for deepening.  No Go.  The name is likely to now be assigned to the next Atlantic/Caribbean system we are watching on the long-range charts - - this tropical storm may develop between west Cuba & the Yucatan Peninsula later next week, threatening landfall on one of the Gulf States around Sep 19,20.  Stay tuned.  

   Eastern Pacific Action:  KIKO will track north of the Hawaiian Islands, as it continues to weaken. ⚠️Another potential hurricane is likely to strengthen and be named LORENA (Lo-ray’-na) soon.  Hurricane tracking is always quite variable, however, latest solutions track LORENA - as a powerful hurricane - to brush the southern CA coast as it weakens and actually makes landfall near Pt Conception KIKO will track north of the Hawaiian Islands, as it continues to weaken on Mon Sep 22.  We do NOT place confidence in this particular solution, but either way, LORENA will kick-up very STRONG SURF along the southern CA coast; possibly damaging surf.  (During my high school days in Ventura, we LOVED tropical storm waves - always the biggest of the year.)  Anyway, moisture from this storm could work north into northern CA & the Bay area for quite a drenching. 

The overall circulation of upper level air flow (jet stream) is charting to “baby-shift” (a very technical term, of course) into a more Fall mode, as the month of September progresses.  So what?  Well, it means periodic deposits of raindrops are in play.  Mug up!

Scattered thunderstorms & moderate showers are in the works for the coming weekend.  Some areas will be completely missed.  Most of the precip & lightning should stay over the higher elevations, but there very well could be outbursts elsewhere, similar to the past two days.  Temps will cool off a bit each day as the weekend unfolds; still pleasant, overall.  Humidity will be up, which will help fire fighting efforts.

Next week looks to start damp, with temperature slowly warming during the week.  Most of the precip should fall Mon & Tue. Thu & Fri, Sep 11,12 chart as dry & warm.  Doesn’t look like there will be much of a breeze, coast included.  Mt Angel Oktoberfest will have fine wx conditions through Sat; let’s hope this holds.

The weekend of Sep13,14: Current model solutions bring another weak surface Low into the PNW late Saturday, with chance for showers poking into the forecast.  Less sunshine, cooler temps.  

By Mon Sep 15, the system noted above will lift into ID for a wet day there.  Eastern basins of OR & WA will likely be wet.  We see dry & WARM temps popping back into play Tue - Thu, Sep 16-18 for all of the PNW - 80s should be the rule.  Models swing another wet system right up along the PNW coast — teasing the chance for rain, but holding the precip off the coast until Fri night, and even then, the rain may target the Puget Sound north.  Breezy.  OR likely to remain dry and warm.

Sep 20,21 weekend is trending dry & warm, with another, stronger front setting up off the coast for the Fall Equinox, Mon the 22nd.  Will the following week be wet?  We’ll get a better peek next forecast.  

🌀 Topical Tropical:  Pacific hurricane KIKO continues its track towards Hawaii, however, it may weaken significantly as it approaches the state.  A circulation pattern west of Africa will likely deepen into a hurricane in the next few days.  GABRIELLE (“GAB”) will be the name. Right now, we do not see any risk landfall to the mainland US; GAB will likely turn north, becoming yet another ‘fish storm’ over the Atlantic.  

Meteorological Fall starts today.  As stated previously, it looks like the 1st half of September will be mostly dry & relatively warm.  That said, a short heat-up is targeted for this week.  Grab your Mug - it’s time.

A morning marine cloud deck is well established across much of the west side of the Cascades, as Labor Day gets started.  The sun will burn the layer off, for a pleasant afternoon.  Tomorrow & Wed are going to be HOT, with temps in the 90s in many locations; upper 80s around the Puget Sound.  Temps should cool down a few degrees late week, as an onshore flow begins to return, so too will be a few thunderstorms along the OR Cascades. Fire risk will jump up.

This weekend - Sep 6,7 - is looking so so.  No consistent pattern on the charts.  The computers haven’t solved for the position of a Low off the coast AND just how much moisture may train north from a Pacific tropical storm charting to move near to or over portions of ’The Baja”.   An upper air flow pattern may drive monsoonal moisture northward, impacting the eastern basins of the PNW and setting off thunderstorms this weekend.  West side locations should not be damp, but we would not rule that out just yet.  Temps will be comfortable.

Week of Sep 8-12 continues to trend partly cloudy by Tue or Wed, with chance for a shower - primarily over the Sound - from a weak trough (Low) dropping in from the BC coast.  Warming late week, offering a decent pattern during the 4 day run of the 60th Mt Angel Oktoberfest. then warming up late week on into the weekend of Sep 13,14.

Week of Sep 15-19:  Dry with temps in the 80s in most locations; warmer in southern OR / eastern basins.  

Ponder Point - early indications of a general pattern shift late that week, with a strong ‘jet stream’ developing to drive Pacific storms into the PNW after the 20th or 21st.  Again, just a consideration.

Let the last Summer holiday begin.  Here’s the holiday outlook and what may happen through early September 2025.  ☕️ Ready?

Labor Day Holiday:  Delightful conditions!  An organized Low pressure ‘cell’ is off the PNW coast and is modeled to essentially ‘park’ there through the long weekend.  This helps to cool down afternoon highs into the 80s in most locations, along with holding off any rain or showers.  Excellent conditions for all outdoor activities.

Next week will yield another HEAT UP around the region, with Tue being the cooler day of the week.  Temps will broadly pop back up into the 90s Wed & Thu, Sep 2,3. Fri the 4th should be a few degrees cooler with an onshore flow increasing.  

Sep 5,6 weekend is trending dry & mild, with temps holding in a pleasant range, given an onshore flow.  Late Sunday afternoon, Sep 7, a weak cold front is charting to drop south along the BC coast, bringing with it clouds, chance for showers and notably cooler temps for a couple of days.  Most of the risk for precip should remain over the Puget Sound region; some cloudiness is likely on Monday the 8th elsewhere.  Note that this system will spark quite a decent “fall storm” over ID, MT & WY.

Week of Sep 8-12 is trending dry & warmer for Tue & Wed, then another cold front is charting to drop in, much like the previous one, threatening some rain & showers overnight Wed the 10th & Thu over Vancouver Is and the Sound; lots of clouds elsewhere south to Portland, maybe Salem.  The Mt Angel Oktoberfest starts on 9/11. 

Weekend of Sep 13,14 looks dry and mild, with an onshore flow that may be strong enough to keep a morning marine cloud deck overhead during the morning hours. The Mt Angel Oktoberfest continues through Sunday the 14th.

Bottom line: the first half of September is likely to remain dry - other than a few showers over the far NW area of WA and southern BC - with seasonally mild temperatures.  Nationally, there are no hurricanes threats indicated on long-range wx charts through mid-month.

Wow, it’s already the last week of the month and, for some, the final week of summer vacation.  HOT conditions will slowly cool as this week progresses.  We may have caught a “wx break” during the upcoming US holiday weekend; read on for details.  

Wrap around moisture from a Low centered over the CA-OR-NV border is training cloudiness over portions of the PNW this morning.  The are some thunderstorms associated with this pattern, so stay alert (east Eugene/Springfield getting hit as this is written).  Similar to the past few days, clouds may clear away somewhat by the afternoon, allowing the heat to build rapidly.  For all regions, temps in the upper 80s to 90s are possible for many locations today & Tue.  Somewhat cooler on Wed and another drop in temps by Thu/Fri.  Think low 80s.

Labor Day Holiday:  a favorable trend on the wx charts suggests the expected wet pattern may not develop - or be delayed enough for Patrons to sneak in a few pleasant days for outdoor activities.  Right now, some precip is possible, but quite spotty.  (Often model outlooks do shift back to earlier solutions, so keep that in mind.)  Overall, temperatures will moderate into ‘comfortable’ for most locations.  Higher humidity will help with fire fighting.

Next week - Sep 2-5 is trending rather pleasant in the temp department, as the ‘heat dome’ will shift over ID, with limited threat for precip.  Again, higher humidity will help with fire fighting.

The weekend of Sep 6,7 is looking WET for southern BC, as cold air to the north clashes with warm air over northern WA.  This is a new feature, so expect some modification going forward.  Warmer over the rest of the PNW (mid-to-upper 80s), as compared to the 'short week' after Labor Day.

HEAT may return again (not unusual for this time of year) in the Sep 9-10 period.  

Overall, we just don’t see any significant rainfall during the next 2 weeks, unless one gets caught under a thunderstorm.