Plenty of blustery weather ahead.  Sadly, serious flooding in CA will continue.  Let’s take a peek ahead.

Blustery winds today (Monday the 9th) as a small, tight Low drifts north along the OR coast up to Vancouver Island.  The larger west coast storm, though, is slamming all of California.  The next CA storm is right behind the current front, so no break in the action for Patrons down there, other than a few dry hours.  

For the PNW, Tue will be the DRIEST DAY of the week.  Don’t miss the break, as the rain & blustery conditions return on Wed.  In fact, Wed/Thu will be much wetter than the past few days, as the ‘January string of pearl' storms continues.  The next mostly dry day on the charts looks to be Sunday Jan 15th; there will still be a few widely scattered showers, with COOL temperatures.  

Next week, Jan 16-20 will present two moderate rain storms for the PNW; they could arrive Tue, Thu or Wed, Fri - depending on which model verifies.  CA will also get slammed yet again with 2 or 3 more very WET systems during that week, as well.  We see cooler conditions arriving mid-month, which will greatly aid in adding to our Cascade snowpack. 

Ponder Point: we will monitor the potential for the next 'Yukon Dome' to form, as there have been a few “hints" of a 1040+ mb high pressure ridge to forming later this month.  The first since our last cold outbreak.  Stay tuned.

<<  We look forward to greeting Patrons at the annual OVS Grower Meeting in Newberg on Tue, Jan 10.  Our presentation topic will be ‘Understanding Extreme Weather in the PNW'.  Mug Up! >>

Today we continue the admittedly weak metaphor of a String of Pearls for the multiple number of Pacific storms heading towards the west coast.  Unfortunately, models were correct about the serious impact of the storms, thus far, on California.  The Golden State is not out of the flooding/wind threat yet.  So, Mug up.  Here’s the update.

Strong storm approaching CA today, and to a lesser degree, the PNW.  This one does not have the super low barometric center pressure of the last system, but it is a powerful storm, nonetheless.  It will be very windy, with heavy rainfall, in CA; western OR could have wind gusts around 25 mph later this afternoon, with periods of rain.  Gusty east winds out of the Gorge will turn on again.  Coastal zones - CA, OR & WA - will have rough wave action.  (Sounds like a January forecast, right?)  

The wet & breezy pattern will continue on through the next week and until at least Jan 21st.  The models chart a slight shift of the “pearls” from northern CA up to the PNW after Fri the 13th.  In the meantime, expect each Pearl to be spaced out about 24-48 hrs apart.  CA will receive moderate-to-heavy rain from now until Tue; not as wet for OR/WA.  It will be breezy at times and esp windy in CA.

One benefit of the storms is that the snowpack in CA is now measured at 174% of normal for this time of year - great news for drought issues in the Golden State.  For the PNW, we may head into another chilly, winter pattern in the last half of January.  Not unusual to have a shift to cold late in the first month of the year.  Stay tuned.

Happy New Year, Patron!  We have interesting weather possibilities on the topic board today.  Get your holiday Mug filled, and read on.  

As indicated in our last report, the general wx outlook for the next couple of weeks is an ‘on / off’ type pattern, with a ’string of pearls’ series of Pacific storms rapidly approaching the west coast.  A bit of background is needed to fully appreciate the pattern of concern ahead.  

Patrons recall that surface storms are generated in the zone where warm & cold air cells meet (usually along the borders of High & Low pressure lobes) in the atmosphere.  We, in jest, compare this battle zone to the friction between Left & Right political ideologies.  Of course, this is quite simplistic, but it goes better with a morn’n beverage.  Anyway, for the next 10 or more days, that battle of the air masses will essentially be in play just to our west, over the eastern Pacific.  A very strong, fast ‘jet stream’ wind in the upper atmosphere will help intensify this surface battle-action, driving the systems (pearls) rapidly along that Low/High pressure boundary right towards the west coast. (Please, stay with us here.).  It is the combination of temp, pressure, upper-level wind that causes surface Low pressure storms to intensify quickly, with barometric pressure readings dropping extremely fast in 24 hr periods.  Such will be the case repeatedly, the next week or longer.  The Implication...

...is for our area to be on alert for any of these storms that may track closer to the PNW than models indicate right now, as their Low center pressures will be deep enough to generate powerful WIND FIELDS (which happened a week ago) should they move onshore.  There will be HEAVY RAIN associated with these storm fronts.  Where will it fall?  (California did get a major storm over New Year’s weekend, with flooding in many locations).)

The weather for tonight into Tue should be mixed, with some shower and breezy conditions for the entire region.  The conditions noted above get started in earnest on Wed Jan 4.

The first in the ’String of Stormy Pearls’ will rapidly deepen to a pressure below 960 mb (!) and is modeled to turn north before beginning its associated rain field strikes the west coast on Wednesday Jan 4 - which will save everyone from high winds, but still brings on plenty of rainfall.  California will get hit hard with RAIN; less so in the PNW.  A 2nd stormy pearl will follow right behind, so another threat for wind moves close to the coast of OR Thu morning, Jan 5.  Again, models turn it north BEFORE serious threat to the mainland. 

Fri/Sat Jan 6,7 will present the next couple of systems, the second of which may bring heavier rain to western OR & WA.  We are not done yet.  More stormy pearls are modeled to follow very similar tracks as the week of Jan 9-13 gets underway.  Storm fronts are scheduled essentially back-to-back all week.  The weekend of Jan 14,15 looks quite stormy for the PNW, with temperatures dropping rapidly, as the coldest air behind the String of Stormy Pearls arrives.  Plenty of Cascades snow; coast range and foothill, too.

Total precipitation expected from now until mid-January exceeds 4” -5” in the Willamette Valley; higher in southern OR. WA less so, as the storm energy will be to the south.  Much of northern CA may get deluged with 10”-12” in the lowlands; >20” in coastal hills of northern CA.  Patrons that live in northern CA or have family & friends there, BE PREPARED for potentially life-threatening flooding.  We hope the models are wrong.

Long writing today.  We felt it warranted.  It is important to note that ANY tracking error of just a couple hundred miles or so to the west, and wham, we may be hit with repeated strong wind fields.  Hence the cautionary tale above.

-Rufus

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Time for our last sip of morn’n beverage together in 2022.  Mug up!

The wx pattern to start the New Year will be ’standard fare’ for the PNW in the winter: a mix of rain, breezes, clouds and, yes, a bit of sunshine.  Overall, we can expect rain and/or showers for a day or so separated by dry conditions.  Cloud cover on the dry time could limit the number of decent sunny days for the next 2 weeks.  

For the holiday weekend, the rain/showers for today (Fri) will diminish as we head into Saturday.  Most of both Sat & Sunday should be dry.  Temperatures mild.  As the first week of the New Year gets underway, it should remain dry until early Tue, when a slight threat for showers (mostly over western OR) may dampen activities.  

The entire west coast, from southern Alaska to northern Baja, will experience an on/off wet cycle for the January 3rd through 15th period.  Systems will arrive like clockwork every 24-36 hrs, dry in between.  Note: California will receive most of the moderate-to-heavy periods of rain (WINDY, too!) from each of the January storms.  Similarly, temperatures will continue mild for a winter month.

We will post a brief update on New Year’s Day.  Happy Twenty Twenty Three.

From the ’Net: “A new study shows that the most expensive vehicle to operate is a Shopping Cart."

A stormy week ahead, with the strongest wind storm in quite some time arriving overnight tonight through Tue.  Preparation is key to minimizing impact.  Post-Christmas week promises to be quite active in regards to weather.  Currently, a powerful storm is brewing to the west.  Mug ready?

Sip.  Our big wind storms typically approach the OR/WA coast from the southwest, turning northward ’inside the 130W”, as we wrote last week, before making landfall somewhere over OR, WA or southern Vancouver Island.  The center barometric pressure of the big wind storms ranges from 956 mb (Columbus Day Storm, Oct 12, 1962) to around 972 mb.  Obviously, there are other atmospheric attributes that must be met, but the basic “alert” to a strong wind potential is the depth of the Low and where it makes landfall; just like a hurricane.  

Our current threat is modeled to deepen to around 967 mb before slowly ’filling in’ to 970-973 mb as it lands roughly between Long Beach WA and southern Vancouver Is.  The central Low is oblong shaped, rather than circular - kind of a double Low - which is our protection, in a manner of speaking, for it helps to spread out storm energy & weaken impact a bit.  The Low will is modeled to become more circular & tighten in shape before landfall, with a powerful WIND FIELD.  Heed Nat’l Wx Service watches and warnings, as this storm carries the potential to have economic impact regionally, esp following the heavy rains and ice storm.

We forecast OR coast winds gusting 80-95 mph; Willamette Valley gusts could exceed 55-60 mph; western WA is not out of the woods on this, but the Low may position itself to present a weaker wind field over the Puget Sound (yet strong enough winds to cause power-issues).  Expect WINDS to pick-up after midnight tonight and bluster through much of Tue.  Strongest gusts may arrive before daylight Tue.  POWER OUTAGES are quite likely, so if you are rural and on a well system, it might be prudent to fill the bathtub for water to flush toilets, so as not to waste potable water.  

Moderate-to-heavy rain is also part of this storm pattern, with over an inch of rain possible in the Willamette Valley from this system; more in the coast & Cascades ranges.  Flood prone areas need to be monitored closely.

The next wet system is due to arrive sometime Wed night, followed by another very WINDY STORM overnight Thu into Fri (mostly an OR event); this one will not be as strong as the Tue event.  As New Year’s weekend gets underway, a New Year’s Eve storm will barrel into north/central CA.  

The PNW will catch a break from all the rain & wind on both Sat & Sunday, New Year’s Day.  RAIN returns to start the first work & school week of 2023.  Keep the rain gear handy.

☕️☕️ Second Cup:  watch & tap your home barometer often!  The faster the pressure falls, along with how fast it rises following front passage, is a clue to wind strength.  A deep, narrow “V” shape pattern indicate a strong wind field possible.  The Portland Nat’l Wx Service team mentions the possibility for ’STING JET’ wind gusts to slap the western OR after the windy front passes (search for Sting Jet for details; it is fascinating wx geek stuff).