'Baking the west' - that’s the impact of our current heat wave.  Temps will top out at or above 100 in many western OR & SW WA locations, and east of the Cascades today & Tue, before finally cooling down into the 80s to low 90s Wed & Thu (even high 70s in NW WA), as an onshore flow aids in heat relief.  By Fri the 12th, the onshore flow weakens, resulting in temperatures popping up again - probably into the 90s (bit cooler over the Puget Sound).  Overall, a warm-to-hot weekend coming, although not quite as toasty as the current ‘bake’.

The week of July 15 - 19 continues to trend much more pleasant, with a notable onshore flow component; temps should remain seasonal (80s primarily inland; tad cooler for NW WA, southern BC.  Morning marine cloud deck, at times.

By the July 20,21 weekend, a weak Low pressure trough will slowly work north from Brookings area, setting off possible thunderstorms over the Cascades; with Sunday likely to be STORMY over eastern WA & along the eastern slopes of the WA Cascades.  Hikers & Campers be alert, should this verify.

Pleasant summer temps are charting for the last week of July.  That could change, so keep your morn’n Mug handy as we continue to revise the long-range outlook here every Mon & Fri.  

Friday Fifth of July

The oven door is now open.  HEAT will be the main wx feature for the ENTIRE west coast, including southern BC.  For all kinds of reasons, please be careful — don’t ignore the cautions & wisdom of staying hydrated and as cool as possible.  We are not joining the ’nanny-state’ here, but the last big heat event in 2021 caused hundreds of fatalities.  True, this heat wave will not be that severe, but in all manner of speaking, it will be life-threatening.  Keep an eye on the elderly in your neighborhood, you could save a life.    Enough said.  Mug time.

Triple-digit temps for western OR, SW WA, CA (excluding beach zones) are in play through Mon, or even Tue.  Ninety degrees plus probable all the way up into Canada.  As Nat’ Wx scientists are saying, it will be the duration of this heat wave that is rather unique.  More than 3 days.  We see cooling on Wed July 10, as an onshore ’nature’s air conditioning’ turns on, even for northern CA.  That cooling will likely last a day or two, before warming back up above normal on Fri July 12.  

Next weekend does chart as HOT again; while triple-digit temperatures will not be quite as widespread, temps will be well into the 90s, with probable 100 - 102 in southern Willamette Valley, southern OR, east side, etc.  Puget Sound will also heat up again, but not as hot as the current weekend.

Longer-lasting RELIEF arrives beginning Mon July 15, as a cool trough moves down the Alaskan Panhandle/BC coast into the PNW.   Showers possible over Vancouver Island, north Puget Sound.  Ahh, mild temps return.  Even CA will cool down.  The SW desert monsoons will also begin in earnest.  The pleasant weather will continue on through that week, into the first half of the July 20,21 weekend.  Sunday the 21st will present a warming trend, with temps popping back up into the 90s as the following week gets underway.  

Small fruit crops will take a hit over the next several days.  All farm / outdoor work will be miserable.  Water, water, water.

From the ’Net: “He who drinks a fifth on the fourth, may not be able to go forth on the fifth.”  

==  YELLOW ALERT  ==

New month, updated forecast, fresh morn’n java.  Let’s get this done - - -

Big U.S. holiday this week, with plenty of outdoor activities on the docket.  The weather will be on the warm-to-hot side, but no rain.  Pleasant temperatures will be on tap for all of the PNW through Wednesday.  Then, BOOM.  Starting the 4th, temps will begin to rise into the HOT ZONE as the extended holiday weekend gets going.  Don’t be surprised if portions some western OR top into triple-digits or very close by the coming weekend.  Yes, as noted in our last discussion, a ‘heat low’ will build north into the PNW, including BC.

Again, a Summer HOT pattern settles in by Fri July 5 and holds through Mon or Tue July 8.9.  Any Relief?  We should get a cool onshore flow for a couple of days next week - right now, Wed & Thu July 10,11 may be our ‘cooler’ heat-relief days until the 15th.  That’s it.  

Temps will pop back up into the 90s to set up another rather toasty weekend - July 13,14.  Probably not quite as hot as the first phase, but definitely uncomfortable, if one has to be outdoors for work or farming.  Speaking of farming - the projected outlook for temps around 95 or higher is NOT favorable for caneberries (red rasp, black caps, marions, etc); sun scald may be a quality-impact issue, as well as heat-stress impacting yield.  Of course, variance is a rule in forecasting, so maybe it will not be so hot.  A grower’s hope.

Back to the extended forecast: following a rather hot weekend, Mon July 15 looks somewhat cooler, with a return to an onshore flow for most of that week (15th - 19th), so expect temps to range in the 80s, generally; a bit warmer east side.

California:  Oh my.  The heat will be news-worthy because of the potential for brown-outs.  Triple-digit misery.  The summer monsoons are likely to start up in earnest over AZ, NV, NM, UT around July 13 - stay alert for flash-flood warnings.

🌀 Tropical Topical:  Yes, BERYL is a monster hurricane.  Currently, we see it tracking south of Cuba, crossing the Yukatán Peninsula and eventually the Mexico/Texas border area.  CHRIS (yet to be named) is following closely behind BERYL.  It should be a lesser storm, since much of the structure of the atmosphere that favors powerful storm development will be ‘somewhat drained’ by BERYL.  That stated, CHRIS will make a path that positions it over the Gulf of Mexico for potential re-strengthening.  Early yet, of course.

☀️ In summary: the PNW is about to experience a notable heat wave (which we define, in the more traditional way, as 3 consecutive days with temps at or above 90F in the shade).  Be prepared.  If you are traveling away from home, be sure plans are made for watering.  

Ag: water-up to stay ahead of elevated rates of evapotranspiration.  

From the ’Net:  “If one person says it’s raining, and the other says the sun is shining, it’s not the media’s job to quote them both; it’s their job to look out the window and report the truth.”

 🎉 HAPPY 4th.  Play & Stay Safe.

Given the indeterminate chaos nationally & throughout the world, ironically, your host finds finds comfort in the uncertainty and variance of weather; not forgetting the comfort of a morning beverage.  Ahhh.  Got yours ready?

Pleasant weather ahead for the next week, before the potential for a couple HOT days after the 4th.  Today & the weekend will mirror the same period last week -> warm temps, plenty of sunshine; cooling on Sunday, as a weak trough passes ushering in morning clouds, primarily over the Puget Sound region. 

Warmer conditions will return next week, after the onshore flow that holds down our temps begins to weaken by Wed the 5th.  For now, we expect the 4th of July holiday period to be dry with temps likely in the 80s to lower 90s (southern OR; portion east side).  Many will take next Fri off - to make for a 4 day holiday weekend.  Well, the weather will remain dry, but temperatures are charting - on some of the models - to potentially be the hottest of the year, to date.  Temperatures could reach the upper 90s or triple-digits in the Willamette Valley, SW WA and the Tri-Cities.  If verified, the HEAT UP will extend north into southern BC.

Relief could arrive on Sunday or Monday July 7,8, if the Low pressure trough indicated on the charts moves south down the BC coast into the PNW.  In fact, showers are possible by Mon night into Tue July 9, esp north of Portland.  That would be a pleasant break from the summer heat.  Again, this forecast is not a certainty, but within the realm of ‘be prepared, just in case’.  

After that cool down, the pattern for Wed - Fri, July 10-12, returns to a dry, mild one, with morning marine clouds and plenty of sunshine inland from the coast.   

The weekend of July 13,14 looks dry & pleasant, as a notable onshore flow will provide the air conditioning.

Steady course, per our previous forecast, so we’ll simply point out the cooler, onshore flow times, with the understanding that the greater threat for precipitation will be around the Puget Sound during the ‘cool downs'.  Mug deal? 

Jun 24 - 28: On Wednesday, cooler with morning clouds and/or showers, esp Puget Sound region. 

Jun 29,30 weekend: Clouds return Sunday with precip chance in the north

July 1 - 5: Bit cooler on the 4th of July; chance for Puget Sound showers on the 5th.

July 6,7 weekend: very nice.

July 8 - 12: Partly cloudy Mon & Tue, then lots of warm sunshine.

Generally, temps will range from the mid-60s (cooler) to the upper 80s to low 90s (warmer).  Yep, Summer in the PNW.