Our weather models are far from being ’spot on’ every time, but they do tend to provide a fairly steady trend line.  In our last report, we forecast ‘little bits’ of rain, sun, fog and maybe snow in the extended outlook for the balance of November.  Well, that has shifted a bit to a generalized drier pattern for the next two week.  That shift may be the influence of a relatively strong El Niño this fall.  Let’s take a look at the latest while we enjoy a morn’n ☕️ beverage.

The overall pattern now indicates that most of the precipitation for the rest of November will move into California, missing the PNW almost entirely.  Sure, a weak system here & there will bring us brief rain/showers, but no direct shots of stormy weather is charting for the PNW.  A cold front (which earlier looked much stronger & bring rather low level snowfall to the mountains) will clip the PNW later this coming weekend - primarily overnight Sunday Nov 19.  

Thanksgiving week:  now charting as mostly DRY Mon, Tue, Thanksgiving Day and Black Friday.  Wednesday Nov 22 - the big holiday travel day - is trending damp early, as a cold front passes late Tue night into Wed morning.  Most of the precip will fall north of Portland.  Thanksgiving Day could be a bit foggy.  So too, for Black Friday.  

🚙 ✈️ For travelers: not a horrible outlook for national holiday travel.  Most of the country will remain fairly calm, with the ‘big’ wet storm centered over eastern TX & all of the SE states on Thanksgiving Day and Black Friday.  Cold air moves over the upper plains, with a touch of snow.  Other than ’self induced’ air travel delays, the wx itself should not mess up travel plans.  We’ll update this in our next report on the 17th.

The weekend following Thanksgiving is also trending DRY around the PNW.  A short-shot of wind down the Fraser Gap is possible during that weekend; nothing super cold, but it could clear away any fog issues around the Puget Sound.

Last week of November: more dry days are modeled for the PNW.  As noted above, California will continue to get shots of precip throughout the holiday weekend and to end the month.  Currently, the CA ’storms’ do not look to be flood-producing systems, just a steady period of sky drips, if you will, across much of the state.  

Rather standard fall weather ahead.  Little bits of rain, sun, fog, and snow?  Let’s take a look.

Most of the precip this weekend will fall onto western WA & southern BC.  Portions of the Willamette Valley and OR coast will get some rain later tonight (Fri) into Saturday.  Breezy.  A weak front is also charting for late Sunday into Monday.  Seasonal temps.  

Next week is trending drier & partly sunny after Mon, excluding the typical foggy-bottoms areas in the valley.  California will be the main ‘rain play’ over the next week or so, as the upper-level winds will direct storm action to the Golden State.  Some precip is charting for the southern OR area (mainly moisture rotating north from CA systems); the rest of the PNW should remain mostly dry, cool after Tue.

The weekend before Thanksgiving week is looking to be mixed, with showers over the west side of Cascades.  No real organized front is modeled, at this time.

🦃 Thanksgiving Week:  Turning wet before sunrise Monday, then COLDER (!!) as models indicate the potential for the coldest air mass this fall dropping over the eastern Pacific and then moving over the PNW.  A decent shot of moderate rainfall Monday, with snow levels dropping well below the passes in the Cascades.  The position of the Low pressure center is key, but right now, we may actually see a few snowflakes mixed in with the rain at the surface later on Monday into Tuesday night (Nov 20,21).  Keep your Mug handy for our updates.  The ‘freak’ storm will be over fast, with partial clearing and lingering showers Tue & Wed, Nov 21,22.   Thanksgiving Day is trending mostly DRY and a bit warmer than earlier in the week.  

Post Thanksgiving weekend is just coming into ‘view’ on the charts — looks WET and blustery, esp over western WA and BC.   Lots of time to tighten up the forecast for Thanksgiving & Black Friday in upcoming forecasts.

Classic stormy November weather ahead.  We will get some decent rain-breaks, too.  Let’s review that latest outlook.  Mug ready?

Local weather specialists have been prepping folks around the PNW for today’s (Monday) rough conditions —>>  heavy showers, strong wind gusts, thunder/lightning, possible tornado action, all as a result of cold air aloft, upper & surface wind patterns, etc.  Stay alert, esp when driving or walking around.  Conditions will calm considerably as Tuesday unfolds.  Wednesday will be dry and cool, but a nice break in the rain.  Not for long, though, as the next quick moving system sweeps overhead on Thursday.  Models indicate drying again on Friday.

The coming weekend:  For all areas of the PNW, except for the far NW corner of WA, southern BC, we can expect mostly dry conditions - foggy at times, too.  A ridge of high pressure will protect the region from rain through the weekend and Mon Nov 13.  Monday should also dry out for NW WA & Vancouver BC area.

Next chance for showers is Tue, mainly north of Portland.  That said, each model run lessens the threat, so it may just be a cloud event.  Wed Nov 15 is trending WET.  A couple Lows off the coast, one to the north, the other off the CA coast, may combine to usher in rainfall around the PNW.  Were this to develop, it could end up rainy all the way through the weekend of Nov 18,19.  Stormy, at times, too.  California will be getting plenty of rain & localized flooding during this period (media will mention El Niño).  Note: some solutions push those wet system well north into BC, keeping much of the PNW on the dry side of the ‘jet’.  We favor the wet pattern, for now.

While the Nov 15-19 storms will super-slam CA, wrap-around moisture will move northward into the PNW to keep us damp early in the week of Thanksgiving. 

New month.  Revised outlook.  Pour that second Mug full and read on.

Break in the rain today, but it will be short lived.  A wet 3 days will start tomorrow, Saturday.  Rain will be steady, winds blustery and temperatures will lower considerably.  A good book weekend.  A weaker system will spin onshore Mon Nov 5.  Blustery, but not a super-drenching storm.  We still see a dry Wed & Thu next week; cool.  Rather than a return to heavy rainfall, as discussed in our last forecast, the wx models are now indicating the dry cycle of Wed/Thu extending on through the entire weekend of Nov 11,12.  However, there could be increased clouds and a stray shower overnight the 9th into Fri, esp north of Chehalis.  Iffy.  Morning fog, at times.

The ridge of high pressure that may block systems from rolling in off the Pacific is now charting to remain in place until late Mon or Tue Nov 13,14.  Then, the buckets of rain return.  Wed Nov 16 and the following 5 days look very WET.  Inches of rainfall, if models verify.  At least the previous run of dry days will allow watersheds to drain down before the next deluge arrives.  Models did not chart this break several days ago.  

Summary: wet weekend, dry period for possibly a week, then heavy rains return.  Stay tuned, as Nature always throws in her own course of events.

Quip from 16 years ago:  “Chrysanthemum by any other name would be easier to spell."

Feeling much better!

Good morn’n, Patron ☕️.  Before we discuss the drenching rains on the way, please accept a personal update.  Many of you have been so gracious with comforting ‘well wishes’ during this past week.  It was not our intent to take “under the weather” to such an extreme!  Mug full?

Personal:  Tomorrow marks the 29th anniversary of this community service venture.  We have rarely missed publishing The Weather Café®️ every Monday & Friday, rain or shine, holidays or illness.  Last weekend, we experienced a life-threatening abdominal event that strikes without warning.  A similar event took place in Oct 2008 - as many of you may recall - that confined us to a Florida hospital ‘vacation' for 21 days.  A literal side effect of that event some 15 yrs ago, is directly responsible for the prompt trip to ER on the 23rd for an emergency surgery, from which recovery is never just an overnight stay.  Well, we finally discharged from hospital Monday afternoon.  Again, THANK YOU for the kind words of support & friendship.  Our Patrons are a quiet cohort that speak up to bless us at times.  Mug cold?  Let’s get to it.

Halloween 2023 will be a chilly, 'dry costume' end to October.  The drenching rains of November will begin on Wed Nov 1.  The precip may hold off until nightfall in some areas, the afternoon in others, either way, models indicate the potential for multiple inches of rain from coast to Cascades across the entire PNW.  WINDY, too.  But wait, there’s more.

A short break in the rain is possible on Fri the 3rd, before another wet period from Sat through Tue, Nov 4-7.  Temperatures will trend a few degrees cooler in that period.  Right now, Wed & the front portion of Thu (Nov 8,9) next week are trending dry.  Then, WHAM, another super-wet strike from the Pacific.  Should models verify (!), the amount of moderate-to-heavy rainfall across the entire PNW from overnight Thu the 7th through Monday Nov 13th could be unrelenting!!  WINDY, too.  We can only hope that long-range models are incorrect, as the event could be a 'mirror image' of the serious impact-flooding experienced in Nov 2006.  What will help minimize the excessive flow of water down the slopes and across the valleys is that freezing levels should drop low enough to ’trap’ mountain precip as snow, mid-weekend Nov 11,12.  The snow could begin falling as low at the coast range by Mon Nov 13.  Good.

It will NOT dry out the week of Nov 13-17, it will simply turn colder, with low snow levels.  A warmer, more westerly flow is possible by the weekend of Nov 18,19.  However, should a ridge of High pressure push north over the Gulf of Alaska, we could be in for a notable COLD SNAP.  Stay tuned.

Bottom line: a news-making amount of water is about to fall.  The possibility for 5”-13” of precip across the entire region in the first 2 weeks of November could be epic.  Low snow levels are a must to mitigate flood issues, of which there will be.  Fallen leaves will plug storm drains - help out by safely by raking away, if you can.  The typical flood-zones will be impacted.  Prepare now.  As you know, our intent is not to sensationalize, but to have you prepared, just in case.

Stop by again on Friday.