Monday April 3

Oh dear, the long-range outlook is not looking favorable for those seeking warmth, sunshine, and the end to chilly temperatures.  Better get that hot java in hand before reading on.

Cold showers, with hail & occasional thunder remain in play through today and Tue, although the activity should diminish a bit on Tue.  Wednesday is looking a tad warmer, as a weak front begins to push onshore.  It may remain dry most of the day, with a steady rain holding off until late Thu Apr 6.   Thu will be mild in the temp department, although showers will become prevalent by nightfall.  Good Friday will be damp, but mild.

Easter Weekend.  Our much hoped for Easter ‘warm-up’ will not likely reach as high as we hoped, but it should be the warmest weekend thus far in 2023.  Saturday should be mostly dry, although do not rule out a stray shower, esp over southern OR.  Easter Sunday should warm, with temps topping out in the low-to-mid 60s depending on cloud cover from a new system moving into the region late Easter Day.  Please note that some solutions move damp weather in Easter Day.

Monday Apr 10 will start out damp, with temps beginning to track downward, yet again, as a cold front moves onshore.  Tue the 11th looks chilly with showers, some that may produce small hail.  Yep, the sign of cold air aloft for the millionth time this so called Spring.  Anyway, we could get a dry day on Wed Apr 12 and most of Thu the 13th.  More cold rain on the way for Fri Apr 14 on into ’tax weekend’.  In fact, a cold pattern similar to what we have experienced multiple times, will again return on the 14th, with the return of cold rain, showers, possible thunderstorms and low elevation snow across the PNW.  A broad cold pool of air will drop south along the PNW coast for a few days, setting up a period of moderate rain west of the Cascades and heavy rain into California again.  

In summary, over the next 2 weeks, the weather pattern is not looking ‘farm-favorable'.  We do NOT see an extended period of normal, mild spring temperatures with enough sunshine to truly dry down PNW soils for spring plantings.  Last year, Apr & May were quite chilly & damp.  As the region exits the third consecutive La Niña influenced winter, we can only hope for an extended dry pattern soon to get farm/garden work going.  

Good & Bad weather is on the way.  Mug up!

The Bad.  Wet system moving in today from the north as this is being written.  Moderate rainfall & colder temps post frontal passage.  Snow in the mountains will be heavy, so traveling east or south into CA will require traction devices (some of you had fun with ’tracking’ devices last time!).  Later on Sat, don’t be surprised to see hail or snow/rain mixed at lower elevations, as the air aloft will be cold, setting up strong ‘lift’ whenever the sun peeks through.  Yep, another winter-like weekend.  Air will cool even more on Sunday, so those big, beautiful clouds will likely release more hail & even rumble at times.   The cold front will sweep into CA beginning Sunday evening.  This same cold front will further develop into a major Spring storm as it rolls across the US; presenting strong winds, snow, rain and possible tornadoes 

Next week will start with more of the cold temps, showers - some with hail - and snow below the passes.  Charts indicate a weak damp system swinging past on Good Friday Apr 7, then the GOOD will happen.  Several forecasts ago, models suggested a wonderful, Spring Easter weekend, which was subsequently pushed off the charts.  Well, as we have seen countless times before, the weather will ‘revert’ back to early charting, and wham, a great Easter weekend is now probable.  WARM afternoons, esp on Easter Sunday.  Likely temps will run into the 60s, upper 50s in the far north corner of the PNW.  

The Bad Again.  Moisture returns over Vancouver Island and NW WA later on Monday, then expanding over OR sometime Tue & Wed Apr 11,12.  It will be a warm rain to start, then turn cold again on Thu the 13th.  The cold trough will be rather large and slow to move out (similar to last week), so we can expect chilly showers (maybe with hail again), mountain snow, and ‘put on a jacket’ temps through the weekend of Apr 15,16.  Please note: often when a High pressure ridge sets up over the west coast (think warm, dry in this case), it is slow to break down or move out.  That could happen after our wonderful Easter Sunday, yielding another day or two of truly Spring comfort.  We’ll wait and see.

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The month will wrap up this week, but Winter will not leave Spring alone quite yet.   Get that morn’n Mug ready.  Here goes — 

Yes, we have another unusually cold system coming back into the PNW to end this week, and start April.  More on that in a bit.  Today & Tue there is a very strong storm developing west of the Oregon coast.  A storm that would cause wind damage, were it to track west and make landfall over Oregon.  However, as mentioned in our last report, the system will deepen rapidly to a center pressure of ~978 mb, then track south - off the coast - toward California over the next 24 hours.  The associated rain field will wet southern OR and rush south across CA as the week progresses.  

For the rest of the PNW, we can expect a shower here & there south of Portland - maybe - and dry conditions setting up for Tue afternoon, Wed & Thu.  An EAST WIND will really get noticed later today & Tue, both for the Columbia Gorge and the Fraser Gap and down the Cascades passes.  Short-term event, though.  The powerful Pacific storm will literally spin down the CA coast, with rain & wind; the farther south it goes, the weaker PNW east winds will get. Temps for our region will be on the cool side, but at least it will be DRY.  

Winter returns to Spring.  What seems like a weekend affair, another COLD winter-like system will move in from the NW on Fri, the last day of March.  This system would bring snow to the surface were this Jan or Feb.  Instead, we can expect thunderstorms, hail, snow/rain mix, wind gusts, rain - yeah, it all, as the cold air moves in April Fool’s Day.  No joke.  It will be much like last weekend.  Daily ‘rapid lift’ picturesque clouds & potential for thunder/lightning & hail should last through Mon Apr 3.  The cold air will seep into portions of northern CA, too, so they can expect a frost risk early next week in the Big Valley (not good for tree crops).  Tue & early Wed next should be dry, turning a tad warmer, as well.

By overnight next Wed, Apr 5, moderate-to-heavy rain will return to the PNW.  This storm will not carry quite the cold air pack, but still, more snowfall over the Cascades and blustery wx for a day or so.  We have asked politely for Winter to leave Spring alone to no avail.  What was to be our Spring Weekend (Easter - April 8,9) is now trending to start off with another cold system on Saturday.  Enough already!  Easter Sunrise should be partly cloudy; CHILLY.  The rain should let up by Easter.   Better relief is on the way.

The pattern for the week after Easter is looking just plain awesome.  Spring will finally kick out the seasonal door.  Temps in the 60s & 70s are on the charts, as a ridge of High pressure builds over the west coast on Mon, Tue & Wed.   Long overdue.

The feel of a seemingly everlasting Winter is back.  Snow mixed with rain at the surface, or just plain snow if you move up a few hundred feet.  Yikes.  Anyway, the very cold air aloft for late March will make for a chilly weekend.  That said, expect heavy snow/hail/rain showers at times, with a crack or two of thunder, esp today through Saturday.  Travel east or west will require traction devices to stay safe.  Sunday should shift to a drier mode, esp by the afternoon.  

Monday also is charting dry.  HOWEVER, not so for southern & SE Oregon, which will be clipped with rain from the ‘top edge’ of a very strong storm that will SWEEP the entire state of California Monday & Tuesday.  Oh the woes & damage to California!  The storm we mentioned in our last report took 5 lives and brought havoc this past week.  Next week will see another news-making, damaging storm sweep across the state from north to south, into Baja.  Heavy rain and WIND!   As noted, the PNW will miss out on this system, except for the southern portions of OR (and maybe a shower or two north to Salem on Monday).

Around the PNW, it will be DRY on Tue, Wed, Thu next week.  Hurray!  Overnight Monday into early Tue, a notable east wind will kick-up out of the Fraser & Columbia gaps, but only for several hours.  Temps will moderate up from the chilly weekend.  'Last Call Storm’ — next Friday - the last day of March 2023 - a wet system with cold air support (very much like our current pattern) will arrive from the north, wetting the region from north-to-south into April Fool’s Day, Saturday.  Expect temps to plummet and snow levels to drop.  This system will not be quite as cold as the current one, but definitely winter-like to end March.  Snow in the coast & Cascades ranges, along with the chance for thunder & hail in the lowlands.

By Sunday, Apr 2, chilly showers will diminish during the day, with a dry Mon to start the next week.  One more.  Yep, another storm will arrive in the PNW on Tue Apr 4 wetting the region for a couple of days.  

🌸🌼🪴 Right now, though, we see a WARMING pattern starting Thu Apr 6 and building into the weekend of Apr 8,9.  Temperatures will likely pop into the 60s, maybe even tease out a few low 70s across southern OR.  Spring, finally!!  

As Monday springs forth (yeah, weak, but had to write it), let’s check out the model outlook for the rest of March.

Showers today will diminish as the afternoon wears on.  A strong, WET system is moving into CA by tomorrow.  Wow, another heavy rain & wind event for the Golden State.  The PNW will catch a rain-break Tue & Wed, with partly cloudy sky and sun breaks.  Temps will be a bit on the cool side.  More ‘feels like winter' precipitation arrives on Thu the 23rd.  Damp & quite chilly for March, with snow levels dropping below the passes yet again.  Breezy.  Fri and Sat should be more dry than wet; continued cooler than normal.  The Low pressure center that we expected on Sunday Mar 26 is now modeled to remain offshore, tracking south towards - you guessed it - California and then truly ’stall out’ for almost a week off the coast.  

The Stall.  Several surface fronts will spin off the large trough of Low pressure that is charting to park off coast of northern CA for the entire last week of March.  Net result for the PNW will be mostly dry over WA, BC & ID on Monday & Tue next week; rain and/or showers over OR.  A band of moisture spinning off that Low may track north into WA & eastern basins, including ID on Wed Mar 29.  

On Thu, the CA Low will be re-enforced by another Low dropping in from the Gulf of Alaska, which will continue to ‘hold’ a trough off the CA coast as the month of April gets underway.  For the PNW, some moisture may move onshore Thu the 29th, as that second Low merges with the stalled one noted above.  It should turn dry again by Fri the last day of March.

April Fool’s Day - looks VERY WET for California.  Moisture from the parked Low will also spin north into OR & WA on Sat Apr 1.  Wet again around our region on Sunday the 2nd, as well.  We see showers diminishing by Monday Apr 3rd as the seemingly forever wet system off CA finally fills in and ends the drenching of CA.  Long way out, but it looks relatively dry Mon, Tue, Wed as the first week of April ticks by.

Of course, the stalled out Low pressure trough could hold position a bit farther north, which would bring lots of rain to the PNW.  That has not been consistently charted, so we’ll go with the forecast above.  Overall, a chilly start for the Spring of 2023.

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