An emotion word for a wx forecast?  Well, sip on for the explanation.

 

The long-lasting chilly, damp weather this Spring was supposed to end soon.  That was the encouraging aspect of our last forecast here on May 2.  Disappointment is the feeling that follows the failure of expectations or hopes to manifest — that is the feeling this update conjures in your host.  The extended dry spell has been brushed off the weather charts for now.  The ag industry in particular will continue to struggle with completing the required tasks this Spring.  In many areas of the PNW, April 2022 was the coolest and wettest on record; May is starting out in a similar vein.  Drat.  Now the update.

 

A cold weekend in store, with a wet system arriving today, the 6th (windy, esp in OR).  Afternoon sun breaks will spur on thunderstorms around the entire region, with the highest chance today and again on Mother’s Day.  Cold air aloft, high-angle sun (when it peeks through) and plenty of atmospheric moisture all combine for generating intense afternoon showers / thunderstorms.  In fact, Sunday (Mother’s Day) could be the one of the coldest on record, if model solutions verify.  Oh my. 

 

Given the cold air in place later Sunday into Tue, FROST is possible, esp if the sky clears in your location, either side of the Cascades.  It should be mostly dry Mon & Tue, with the next wet system likely to arrive sometime on Wed May 11th.  That disturbance could be delayed until after dark on Wed.  We’ll see.  Models have differed on the solution for Friday the 13th and that weekend - some suggest a dry pattern will set up for several days (as we discussed in our last report); others bring back a wet system on the 13th, with showers continuing at least through Sat May 14.  That is the trend.

 

What we had originally expected for the week of May 16-20 as seasonal, dry and warm is now trending back to a wet, chilly period.  If this verifies, there will be negative impact of regional agriculture.  Disappointment all around.

 

 

 

 

So, what does that tag line means?  Grab another morn’n bev and let’s explore the latest wx outlook.

 

Wet: today, rather windy, esp OR.  Dry: tomorrow & Wed (also warming into the 70s - another mid-week BBQ Day, for sure).  Repeat: Wed night into early Sat it will be wet again.  The system charting for Fri morning will likely be stronger than today’s (May 2nd), so WIND will be noticed again, esp across SW WA & western OR.  

 

Done: ah, here’s the good news - we could get an extended break from the seemingly unending rain & cool wx.  Following a chilly, but mostly sunny weekend - with a strong westerly wind in the Columbia River Gorge - models are now trending for a long-lasting 10-14 day WARM, DRY period.  Current projections show the week of May 9-13 to be just that -  Farming weather!   Fri the 13th may see a period of cloudiness, with a random shower in the far northern portion of the PNW, but otherwise dry on through that weekend of May 14,15 (with temps in Willamette Valley teasing the 80s).

 

Dare we write the following?  Here goes.  The dry, warm pattern noted above could continue into through the week of May 16-20.  Temps in the 70s to lower 80s (southern OR).  Were this to verify, pollination period for caneberries could be quite favorable.  Don’t bet on this yet, but May is typically when we get long stretches of excellent wx in the great PNW.  Keep your Mug handy for updates.

 

 

 

Our tag line conveys the indirect origin of the upcoming series of storm fronts triggered by Low pressure troughs spinning off the Aleutian Islands.  Refill your Mug, Patron, and read on.

 

For the next 10 days, a series of wet systems will result from low pressure ‘waves’ in the atmosphere that essentially originate over the Aleutian Islands and spin their way into the PNW.  Yes, this is a simplistic view of what will happen, but it is not fake news.  The first arrives later tonight, with 3 to 4 more following through May 13.  In between these systems will be breaks lasting 36-60 hours.  At least the temperatures will trend on the warm side, with highs around the PNW topping into the 60s and mid-70s.  We’ll bullet point the latest, knowing this could be modified over time --

 

• Wet & windy tonight into Saturday, with intense showers & wind gusts possible Saturday afternoon over the Willamette Valley.  
• Dry and mild Sunday - May 1
• Wet Sunday night into Monday, May 2.  Windy.
• Dry and WARM Tue & Wed, May 3,4 with temps on Wed likely to be 70s in many locations west side.
• Wet Wed night into Thu May 5- with a rapidly moving secondary front arriving on Fri, keeping it damp into Sat afternoon.  Turning quite WINDY in the Columbia Gorge on Thu.  Cooler.
• Sunday May 8 is trending cool & dry, as conditions develop favoring a wet period east of the Cascades.
• Monday through Thu May 9-12 - cool west side, with abundant showers east side, WINDY in ID.  Snow levels rather low - for May - in the eastern quadrants.  Note that overnight lows could tease 34-36 degrees F, esp out of windy areas.
• Friday the 13th looks damp again but that may be it for awhile - as that weekend is trending warm and dry.  Too far out to book outdoor activity, so stay tuned.

 

Your host having a light lunch this week -- 

 

 

 

Drat.  The much anticipated dry spell on the long-range wx charts has narrowed considerably since our last report (and radio interview - see below).  Best to make that morn’n brew strong.  Here goes.

 

Following a perfect weekend, the PNW has already drifted back into a cooler-than-normal, damp cycle of wx.  Although the week ahead should NOT be a complete washout, cool, showery conditions will hamper getting the land worked for spring farming, esp for growers in the NW corner of WA, cool temps and   Showers will increase tomorrow, Tue, as the coldest portion of that trough moves over the region.  Chance for a thunderstorm & hail Tuesday.   Wed & Thu, along with early Fri ,should be the driest stretch of the week.  Later on Fri yet another pool of chilly air will move in, with rain/showers, as well.  

 

Unfortunately, the coming weekend will not allow for a dry-down, as more rain/showers are now on tap for Fri/Sat and Sunday May 1 into Monday.  Double drat.  What about that warmer, dry stretch?  Well, that period has narrowed considerably since our last report.  This doesn’t mean all is lost, but our hope for 4-7 days of 'farming weather' has clouded over, literally.  Yes, warm temperatures are still possible, but for only 2, maybe 3 days, Tue, Wed & most of Thu, May 3-5.  Some model solutions hold off the next round of rain until Fri by tracking an approaching Low into California, ushering in muggy temps and showers/thunderstorms late Fri into Sat, May 6,7; other scenarios bring that same Low right over OR/WA, along with rain across the entire PNW starting Thu May 5th.  

 

Generally, the weekend of May 7,8 looks damp, with temperatures slightly cooler than normal.  There remains no clear indication that the PNW will finally break out of the wet, cool pattern.  We’ll hope for model error.

 

Third Cup ☕️☕️☕️:  The Farming Show, which aired Sat morning, Apr 23, on 790 KGMI Bellingham, opened with your host.  The interview runs about 20 minutes.  Please recognize that the discussion above has modified the outlook that was discussed on Dillon Honcoop’s radio show.

 

 

 

A relatively long stretch of dry, warm weather could be on the way - in May.  Dare we believe?  Mug up and take a peek.

 

The current weekend promises to be the warmest in many days, with temperatures climbing into the 60s for most west side locations.  Clouds may increase over Vancouver Island & the Puget Sound area later on Sunday, but all-in-all, a decent, get outdoors weekend is on tap.  Conditions will change soon.

 

Next week is trending cooler again, with showers just about everywhere in the PNW at some point.  Cold air aloft, along with sun breaks will cause lift and some intense showers to form.  For Patrons in far eastern OR, WA and ID - be ready for potentially heavy downpours on Tue.  While a late Spring frost is not likely west side, chances are elevated for near freezing temps overnight next week west side and possible frost east side, if the sky clears.  It will be close Thu, Fri & Sat mornings, Apr 28,29,30.

 

The weekend of Apr 30 - May 1 is trending as a turning point — hurray!  A weak, fast moving surface Low is charting to clip the west side of OR & WA on Sunday, May 1, although it should be primarily a cloud event, not rain.  Furthermore, with the weak Low tracking west of WA coast, the resulting warmer SW flow will usher in another decent, warm weekend.  But wait, there’s more —

 

The good news.  A summer-like High pressure ridge building north out of CA is modeled to dominate Mon - Wed, May 2-4.  If so, temperatures will pop into the upper 70s, and quite possibly the lower 80s, for much of the PNW.  Finally.  (Yes, there are model solutions that either bring rain back early that week or that keep the dry, warm stretch lasting will into the weekend of May 7,8.)  For now, we should plan on finally getting an adequate stretch of warm, dry weather to get crop work accomplished.  We need normal May weather.