A soaker weekend is on the way.  At least growers had a few days to work the land ahead of time.  Refill your Mug. 

 

Rain will be the news this weekend, as will potentially strong thunderstorms over portions of western Oregon.  Yes, it will be breezy, but not as much as last weekend.  Details: a Low is moving towards the OR coast, but this time, the models turn its track north rather than across OR.  Result will be plenty of rain and not as strong a wind field as the previous wind event.  Precipitation amounts should range from 3/4" to 3” depending on elevation.  On Sunday, Patrons across OR should be prepared for THUNDERSTORMS - which could develop into strong, dangerous cells.  Heed Nat’l Wx Service alerts.

 

Next week will be drier & warm again.  The exception could be the far NW corner of WA / Vancouver Island, as a system may dump more rain Thu night into Fri.  We’ll review this in our next report.  The weekend of Jun 12,13 is trending on the seasonal dry side, with limited showers, primarily east side.   

 

As the middle of June arrives, we are noting a big change in the upper-air and large-scale surface pattern.  For the past couple of months, a broad Low pressure trough has lingered over the Gulf of Alaska, coupled with a strong ‘jet stream’.  The resulting damp, cool weather dominated April & May.  While a bit early to confirm, the long-range model solutions hint of a broad Pacific High over the Gulf of Alaska - a pattern which sets up dry, mild summer weather for the PNW.  This doesn’t mean no precip, but it does signal a change back to normal PNW weather, as compared to the past 2 months.  Also, we are continuing to be under the influence of a cool La Niña pattern (see image below), so any onshore flow of air will help keep the lid on serious heat-ups.  If High pressure builds from the desert SW or California, then a heat wave will be more likely.  Keep that Mug handy.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Brief update:

• The week will turn dry until late Fri or early Sat., with potentially the warmest day of the year mid-week.  Patrons in the far NW corner of the region will see clouds and maybe a shower sometime on Thu.
• The coming weekend looks damp - esp on Saturday - with mild temperatures.  Breezy.
• Week of June 6-10 is charting as dry & mild, with the possibility of rather WARM temps late in the period.  Models differ on that, as another damp pattern may commence on the 10th or hold off until that weekend, June 11,12. If the system holds off until Sat, temps on Fri could top in the 80s in many locations.
• Week of June 13 is modeled to start out dry for OR, with clouds and cool temps over the Puget Sound.

 

Warm weather returns after a stormy holiday weekend.  Washington & BC will be spared the brunt of the storm, but all will receive rain.  Refill your morn’n bev and come back here for the details. 

 

STORM ALERT - for Patrons in Oregon, mainly south of Salem area and for those traveling / camping in the Cascades.  Today will be calm, with some showers here and there.  Peeks of sunshine are possible, as well.  It will be mild.  The action starts Saturday the 28th.  As mentioned in our last discussion, the system due in tomorrow will be quite a powerful storm for this late in May.  Let’s break it down:

 

 

• RAIN.  Much of western OR could receive up to an inch of precipitation on the valley floor, double that for the coast and coastal mountains.  Patrons in WA & on Vancouver Island will receive considerably less rain; still, umbrella time.  
• WIND.  Strong winds at the coast (gusts could exceed 45 mph) esp south of Newport.  Depending on where the center of the storm makes landfall (could be Lincoln City plus or minus 75 miles north or south), Willamette Valley wind gust around 30-35 mph are probable.  Strongest winds charting for late afternoon into Saturday evening. Gusty overnight, as well.  Secure your gear (even at home, if you will be away)
• SNOW.  As the storm moves east, colder air will arrive, dropping the snow level below the passes.  As much as a foot of snow is possible at the higher elevations, half that at pass level.  Be prepared for winter conditions, which can be just as dangerous if they last several hours as when they last several days.

On Sunday, the storm will have past, but there will be showers & possible mountain thunderstorms lingering behind the front.  Temperatures will be chilly.  Memorial Day is trending mostly DRY and turning warmer by a few degrees for all elevations.  

 

Tue through the end of the short work/school weak looks WARM (could be in the upper 70s, to lower 80s on Wed).  It will turn muggy towards the end of the week; Thu could be damp in the eastern portions of WA.  Fri may present thunderstorms in the Cascades, esp southern districts of OR.  

 

The weekend of June 4,5 is trending mild, with muggy conditions; showers possible, as will be periods of cloudiness.  Actually, typical June weather for strawberry picking, if the berries are ripe yet.

 

The week of June 6 is on track to start out mild & mostly dry, turning WET and turning cooler as the week progresses.  The NW corner of WA & southern BC may get showers on Mod the 6th.  It does look mixed for the second weekend in June, with some precipitation & sun breaks.  Seasonal temps.

 

 

 

The longest dry stretch in months will continue until late Thu.  The upcoming holiday weekend is now trending to present us with a relatively powerful storm.  Better Mug up first.

 

That’s right.  Dry, mild conditions will hold through mid-week.  For Vancouver Island area Patrons, clouds will increase Tue as a weak Low moves across the northern tip of the island.  The rest of the PNW should cool down a bit, but still remain dry.  Thursday presents a slightly more organized system, so showers are possible, primarily north of Portland.  Farm work should be able to continue.

 

Holiday Weekend:  Fri May 27 - Mild & dry.  The system we expected to arrive will be delayed until early Saturday the 28th.  The latest variation of the disturbance takes on aspects of a relatively powerful fall storm.  A deep 990-994 mb Low is modeled to track onshore around Astoria.  WINDS along the coast & inland could be quite notable for this time of year.  Campers will be impacted, if this system actually verifies.  Wind gusts could top 35 mph in the Willamette Valley; stronger along the OR coast.  The strongest winds are likely Saturday afternoon through sunrise Sunday.  We will update details on this in our next report.  Note: hopefully, the whole thing will just end up being a wet system minus strong winds.  Anyway, RAIN & lots of showers will be the rule from around 2 or 3 am Sat morning through mid-day Sunday.  Memorial Day itself is now trending dry and cool, as the winds shift to a westerly flow.  

 

Other than showers in the far NW corner of WA and over Vancouver Is Tue night, June 1st, it should remain mostly dry around the PNW through Fri June 3.  There may be a couple weak systems approaching from the west, only to fizzle out before arrival along the coast.  Temperatures will be seasonal.  

 

The first weekend of June was trending on the damp side, but the last few model runs have that moisture threat slowly fading away.  Let’s hope so, as growers need the better farming weather.  Check here again Fri for an update.  

 

 

Getting excited about a 6-8 day stretch of dry, mild weather seems odd, but we all know that would result in the longest dry period in seemingly forever.  Break out the t-shirts and Mug up for more details.  

 

Indeed, we are at the beginning of what could end up as a 7-8 day dry spell.  There will be a day or two with increased cloudiness (and maybe a shower over the northern portion of Vancouver Is), but overall pleasant farming and outdoor wx is before us.  Finally.  The next period of rain/showers & cool temps could start next Fri or hold off until the middle of the Memorial Day weekend.  Latest models runs are trending for the later.  Temps should range from the 60s into the middle 70s over the next week.  Pollination buzzzzz.

 

Memorial Day weekend:  With either scenario mentioned above, Saturday looks mostly dry & warm.  A wet cycle is charting to return on Sunday May 29.  Memorial Day itself looks damp & unseasonably on the cold side.  Plan accordingly for any outdoor activity.  We will update this on the 23rd.

 

The week following the holiday is trending cool & damp for just about every day.  Crop development will again slow, if the projected temperatures verify; sweaters or jackets will be needed again. 

 

“An expert can take something you already know and make it sound confusing.”  

 

-Rufus