The Weather Cafe ® by Rufus

Written by Rufus La Lone since 1994.

Normal Outlook

Posted by Rufus La Lone on

Monday August 8
 
The final month of Summer is moving along just as fast as 2022 in general.  A few adjustments in the long-range forecast, which is why you grabbed that Mug and arrived here, right?
 
Hot today (90s; lower in the Puget Sound area), with cooler marine air seeping in as the week progresses.  The mid-level moisture (mentioned in our last report) training up from the south is tracking a bit farther west than expected, so a shower and/or thunderstorm is possible over western valleys, esp OR; WA could also gets a shot between now and Wed.  As the weekend approaches, temperatures will warm up a few degrees - which is a change - with dry conditions.  Still, temps should remain seasonal and not push into the 90s, excluding the usual hot spots in southern OR & east side.  
 
Next week is charting to be dry, with up & down afternoon temps.  Warmest days could be Wed & Thu Aug 17,18 - upper 80s for the Willamette Valley.  The weekend of Aug 20,21 is now looking warm vs cool in our last update.  Again, the outlook is not calling for 90+, just seasonal for Aug, as an onshore flow should hold western valley temps in the pleasant summer-warm mode.  Monsoonal moisture may train north along the eastern slopes of the Cascades, or SE OR & the potato lands of ID.  
 
Topical Tropical:  that time of year for tropical storm action.  After a quiet start because of a persistent Sahara Desert Dust layer, atmospherics in the Atlantic are changing slowly.  There are indications that the monsoons of western Africa are increasing, the waves of which set up the action necessary for Atlantic hurricane formation.  We see such a system that could, just maybe, begin to make news as it tracks towards the SE US coast by the weekend of Aug 20,21.  More info as warranted.
 
Finally, for the PNW, the week of Aug 22-26 is currently charting as seasonal, with temps in summer-mode and onshore breeze helping moderate afternoon highs.  Perfect, if that verifies.
 
‘Song of Summer’ reports from our Patrons are coming in from Spokane to Eugene.  The sound of cricket chirps for the Summer of 2022 are just getting started.  The first chirps here in south Albany were heard on Fri Aug 5.  Thanks!
 
“Nothing makes it more difficult to understand teen-agers than listening to what they say."
 
-Rufus
 
 
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The Song of Summer

Posted by Rufus La Lone on

Friday August 5
 
A 'nine times ten' degree weekend in store for most of the PNW, with a relatively long stretch of pleasant temperatures to begin next week.  Refill that Mug.
 
The weekend will be a bit too warm for many, as temps should top out in the low-to-mid 90s.  Monday is also on tap for 90+, as well.  (It will be a few degrees cooler in the north Puget Sound region, per usual.)  Good news, is on the charts for Tue Aug 9 on through the weekend of Aug 13,14 as cooler temperatures will begin.  In fact, by next weekend, it could be slightly below normal for high temps around the PNW.  In the meantime, expect temps to slowly cool each day after Monday the 8th.  Some moisture may ride up with a SW flow aloft over the eastern basins next week, so expect a shower or boomer to develop mid-week.
 
As stated, the second weekend of Aug looks on the cooler side of summer, with onshore breeze tapping down temps from the coast to the western slopes of the Cascades.  Cooler east side by Thu.  The week of Aug 15-19 is trending on the mild side, with afternoon temps rising a bit from the previous weekend, currently charting to top out in the low-mid 80s west side.  Given the potential flow aloft that week, regional humidity will likely be higher than normal for August.  We’ll see.
 
Early yet, but the weekend of Aug 20,21 is charting below normal for temps, as an onshore flow continues to dominate our wx pattern.
 
The Song of Summer.  It's being reported by Patrons that the annual "Song of Summer” is just starting in various locations from Salem north (your host, an Entomologist by profession, has written about listening for these classic Chirps of Nature for over 25 yrs).  Western field crickets are beginning their summer song, which typically starts across western OR & WA around Aug 6-10, depending on the overall wx pattern beforehand.  Once their chirps get going, the Song of Summer will last well into the frosts of Fall.  The fun part is listening in the evening for when that Song begins in your area.  Adults & children enjoy this annual exercise. Report your findings rrufus@yahoo.com, please. 
 
Mug up & listen.
 
-Rufus
 
 
Copyright © 1994-2022 - All Rights Reserved - The Weather Café ®
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Onshore Flow

Posted by Rufus La Lone on

Monday August 1
 
The new month will present cooler temps to start, with the first couple of weekends being the warmest.  Here’s the latest outlook.
 
Onshore flow this week will tap temperatures down into a more pleasant range (70s-80s west side).  The Puget Sound area will cool down even more mid-week, as a weak Low pressure trough glances the area.  Don’t put the sunshade & sunscreen away, as more summer temps should arrive on the weekends.
 
By Aug 6 & 7, temperatures will pop back up again, with western valley in OR teasing out the upper 80s to lower 90s on Sunday Aug 7; warmer, too, for NW WA & Vancouver Is., as well.  For next week, the 8th - 12th, model solutions have presented two different scenarios - one with warm-to-hot temps, the other with mild onshore-flow temps.  For now, let’s split the difference and call for continued dry, pleasant-to-warm afternoons with a NW breeze that will decrease by Fri Aug 12.
 
The second weekend of Aug looks to be ‘summer-warm', turning a bit cooler on Mon Aug 15 as that next week begins.  
 
Broadly speaking, models indicate an onshore flow pattern in place the next two work weeks, bracketed by ‘summer-warm' weekends.  The eastern regions of WA & OR will run a bit warmer, per normal.  (FYI: around The WxCafé™️ counter, ‘summer-warm’ is defined as temps in the mid-to-upper 80s.)
 
“Time is the most valuable thing a person spends."
 
-Rufus
 
 
Copyright © 1994-2022 - All Rights Reserved - The Weather Café ®
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For the Record

Posted by Rufus La Lone on

Friday July 29
 
Records could be broken this weekend.  Mug up for details.
 
The current heat wave, while not necessarily reaching record high temperatures, could extend an extra day (Sunday) to meet or break locational records for the number of consecutive days at or above 90 degrees.  Local wx teams will be detailing this over the weekend.  For now, we do see a cool down on Monday lasting on into the middle of next week, as the onshore flow will increase - the “on” switch for our PNW natural air conditioner.  Eastern basins will remain hot a day or two longer.
 
As next week nears an end, temps will pop up a few degrees, quite possibly back into the 90s, esp for OR & east side as the first weekend of August gets underway.  This time, another variable will be added to the hot conditions - THUNDERSTORMS.  
 
For the week of Aug 8 - 11, models indicate the monsoonal storms of the desert southwest will ride up along the eastern slopes of the Sierra and Cascade ranges, ushering in afternoon & evening thunderstorms, some of which could produce rain/showers that may drift over portions of the west side.  Monsoonal moisture could migrate north into WA, so we’ll keep a watch on this.  MUGGY conditions will make for rather uncomfortable outdoor activities.  
 
Overall, for the next couple of weeks, HOT turns cooler, then warming up again, with increased humidity and mountain (and valley?) storms as August shifts into gear.  Stop by again Mon Aug 1st for another peek ahead.  
 
“A fanatic is a person who is highly enthusiastic about something in which you are not even remotely interested.”   
 
Your interest in these forecasts keep me from being fanatical.  My friends & family say, “Thanks!"
 
-Rufus
 
 
Copyright © 1994-2022 - All Rights Reserved - The Weather Café ®
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Tapped down a bit

Posted by Rufus La Lone on

Monday July 25
 
Toasty week ahead, although the heat wave duration may be shorter & max temps a bit lower.  Let’s review the latest.  Refill time.
 
All are aware of the heat wave across the PNW this week.  What has changed since our last report is that the upper-level air flow may train SMOKE from the California fires over portions of OR, tapping down maximum temps a bit on Tue and Wed, although Tue could end up being hottest day of the week.  The other change is the projected strength of onshore flow by this coming weekend, which may be strong enough to push high temps down into the ‘air conditioned’ zone; especially Sunday.  All-in-all, still a toasty week ahead, so water-up.  Temps in the 90 to mid-90s remain in play, just not a run of triple-digit readings.  If no smoke, a 100+ reading remains probable.
 
As noted, cooler weather is on the charts beginning Sunday, with a weak trough dropping down from the NW, ushering in cool, marine air.  Breezy afternoons.  Temps by later next week - as August gets underway - may actually run a tad below normal, if recent model adjustments verify.   The weekend of Aug 6,7 is trending warm, seasonal.  
 
The second full week of Aug is charting to start out a bit cool, then warm-up into the 80s & 90s by mid-week.  
 
Bottom line: overall temps this week should trend a few degrees lower than expected, and a cooler pattern may return by Sunday.
 
“Why not? I had a better year than he did.”  -George Herman ‘Babe' Ruth - a depression era remark to a reporter who had objected to Ruth’s demanding $80,000 for the 1931 season, $5,000 more than Pres. Herbert Hoover’s salary.
 
-Rufus
 
 
Copyright © 1994-2022 - All Rights Reserved - The Weather Café ®
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