We are now in ’the turn’ toward much better late Spring, early Summer weather.  A giant “Yes!!” can be heard around the PNW.  

 

For today (Monday) and Tue, expect showers to pop-up at times, but infrequently.  The typical ‘convergence zone’ showers are likely in the Puget Sound region.  Wed looks to be the warmest day of the week, with temps jumping into the high 60s or 70s, depending on location.  Dry.  Late week, there will be another trough and associated surface Low spinning its way south off the PNW coast, but as mentioned earlier, it is not charting to move onshore, therefore, expect a few clouds at times Thu over far north WA and Vancouver Island with dry conditions elsewhere.  Mild temps.  

 

Friday should also remain dry, with an up-tick in an onshore flow - breezy.  Concurrently, it will be windy in the far eastern portions of WA & OR; Idaho too.  The coming weekend is trending to be dry, although a bit muggy, as a SW flow is charted.  Mountain showers possible along the eastern slopes.  We are not likely to get that ‘light show’ mentioned in the last update because the surface Low moving out of NV will track too far to the east.  

 

Week of Jun 20 - 24 is looking DRY, with some of the warmest temps of the year possible over the eastern basins and southern OR.  Onshore breeze may tap western valley and Puget Sound temps down a bit.  Still pleasant for strawberry picking and outdoor activity.  Models hint a yet another offshore Low pressure trough forming the last weekend of June.  Right now, though, the main impact could be onshore breeze with seasonal temps.  No rain.  We’ll take it.

 

Topical Tropical: we are monitoring what would become Hurricane BONNIE in the Gulf of Mexico during the last weekend of June (yes, we have Patrons in FL & NOLA).  Long-range scenarios periodically suggest a disturbance originating south of Cuba deepening and tracking into the Gulf late June.  ’Tis the season.

 

 

 

Looks like the PNW will soon get a favorable ‘turn’ toward Summer weather pattern.  Let’s hope this verifies.

 

A WET weekend is still on tap, as the ‘jet stream’ directs moisture-saturated air over the PNW.  Washington got the drenching yesterday; Oregon is on tap for much of the moderate-to-heavy rain this weekend.  Because of the very warm air mass aloft, heavy rain over the mountains not only melts some of the snowpack, but also raises stream & river levels notably.  Our large ‘main stem’ rivers will be impacted, esp the Columbia.  Expect rain turning to showers by later on Sunday, with showers diminishing from south-to-north as next week begins.

 

The Turn.  Models hint at a Low pressure system remaining off the OR coast by the middle of next week, so we’ll go with a very slight chance for a shower on Thu, but overall after Tue we see a stretch of drying out and WARMING for western portions of the PNW.  The weekend of Jun 11,12 is trending rather MUGGY, with a Low moving N out of Nevada across eastern WA that will usher in rather intense showers/thunderstorms over the eastern portions of OR, WA and possibly ID.  Some of that moisture may push out of the Cascades into southern OR, as far north as Salem overnight Sat.  Early yet, but we may be in for quite a ‘light show’ the night of Jun 11. 

 

Other than that threat for storms cells drifting west next weekend, western portions of the PNW should remain DRY and warm.  In fact, if models verify, temperatures later in the week of Jun 13-17 are likely to pop into the 90s (esp southern OR and east side) - for the first time in 2022.  Ponder point: will that be the first heat wave of 2022?  For now, it looks like onshore flow will cool the west side down by Sunday, Jun 19.  California will toasty hot.

 

 

 

The longest day for daylight is still a couple weeks away, but for today, we collectively remember that monumental event is 1944.  Our wet Spring will continue for another week or so.  Here’s the latest outlook.

 

It will turn dry & mild starting later this afternoon and on Tue.  The next quick short-shot of limited precip set to arrive overnight Tue.  Wed should be another dry day before, sadly, yet another round of rain could arrives sometime on Thu.  Models differ as to the extend of the rainy period starting this Thu on into the weekend; some train the moisture up over NW WA and BC, others target moderate rain over the northern half of western OR, as well.  Either way, the event could be one for the ‘books’, as the amount of precipitation could break records for a June storm, depending on just where that ‘jet stream’ and subtropical moisture streams onshore.  If it tracks mainly into WA, OR conditions will be on the warm side & dry.  For Patrons in farm country north of Seattle, yikes, another drenching. 

 

Across the PNW, this coming weekend should be the last 2 damp days before a dry spell develops.  High pressure over the Gulf of Alaska may finally start to replace that broad trough of Low pressure (as we discussed last time), setting up a cool, but dry, onshore breeze (quite strong at times) for the period of Mon-Fri, Jun 13-17.  The weekend of June 18,19 may experience a few showers by Sunday evening, but right now, that weekend charts as dry, mild.

 

As the Summer Solstice (Tue Jun 21) approaches, a cool Low pressure zone may work its way south along the inland passage, setting up cloudy days and possible showers by late Wed or Thu, Jun 22,23. 

 

Overall: unfortunately, a generally wet period remains on the charts for the next week before the PNW may finally catch a dry break.  We sure hope so.

 

 

 

A soaker weekend is on the way.  At least growers had a few days to work the land ahead of time.  Refill your Mug. 

 

Rain will be the news this weekend, as will potentially strong thunderstorms over portions of western Oregon.  Yes, it will be breezy, but not as much as last weekend.  Details: a Low is moving towards the OR coast, but this time, the models turn its track north rather than across OR.  Result will be plenty of rain and not as strong a wind field as the previous wind event.  Precipitation amounts should range from 3/4" to 3” depending on elevation.  On Sunday, Patrons across OR should be prepared for THUNDERSTORMS - which could develop into strong, dangerous cells.  Heed Nat’l Wx Service alerts.

 

Next week will be drier & warm again.  The exception could be the far NW corner of WA / Vancouver Island, as a system may dump more rain Thu night into Fri.  We’ll review this in our next report.  The weekend of Jun 12,13 is trending on the seasonal dry side, with limited showers, primarily east side.   

 

As the middle of June arrives, we are noting a big change in the upper-air and large-scale surface pattern.  For the past couple of months, a broad Low pressure trough has lingered over the Gulf of Alaska, coupled with a strong ‘jet stream’.  The resulting damp, cool weather dominated April & May.  While a bit early to confirm, the long-range model solutions hint of a broad Pacific High over the Gulf of Alaska - a pattern which sets up dry, mild summer weather for the PNW.  This doesn’t mean no precip, but it does signal a change back to normal PNW weather, as compared to the past 2 months.  Also, we are continuing to be under the influence of a cool La Niña pattern (see image below), so any onshore flow of air will help keep the lid on serious heat-ups.  If High pressure builds from the desert SW or California, then a heat wave will be more likely.  Keep that Mug handy.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Brief update:

• The week will turn dry until late Fri or early Sat., with potentially the warmest day of the year mid-week.  Patrons in the far NW corner of the region will see clouds and maybe a shower sometime on Thu.
• The coming weekend looks damp - esp on Saturday - with mild temperatures.  Breezy.
• Week of June 6-10 is charting as dry & mild, with the possibility of rather WARM temps late in the period.  Models differ on that, as another damp pattern may commence on the 10th or hold off until that weekend, June 11,12. If the system holds off until Sat, temps on Fri could top in the 80s in many locations.
• Week of June 13 is modeled to start out dry for OR, with clouds and cool temps over the Puget Sound.