A pleasant weekend ahead, even a few showers possible north of Chehalis.  We do have more heat coming, so Mug up & read on.

 

Yes, this weekend will be cooler and more enjoyable outside than the past few hot days.  A weak system from the NW will cross western WA, ushering in an onshore flow, clouds and drizzle/showers in a few places.  Main impact will be much cooler temperatures - could be a drop of nearly 20 degrees compared to yesterday the 25th.  Sunday will be less cloudy & warmer.

 

Next week is trending warmer and dry.  In fact, models hint at yet another HEAT-UP with regional temps topping back into the 80s and 90s west side on Tue & Wed to end the month of August.  We will not rule out a triple-digit reading on Wed, Aug 31, esp in the usual hot spots.  

 

Another surge of onshore flow should begin Thu to start the month of September off with a cool period.  The last holiday weekend of the Summer of ‘22 will be on the cool side, although Sat & maybe Sunday in OR could be warm (models have been back-n-forth for a damp Friday/Saturday).  A change in the overall pattern is charting to set up Monday Sep 5 - Labor Day - meaning fall-like weather is likely starting late Sunday over Vancouver Is and NW WA, moving south by Labor Day.  Clouds and RAIN are probable to end the holiday weekend.  Be prepared if camping.

 

The short work and ‘back-to-school’ week is trending cool & wet, at times, with Low pressure systems moving into the PNW from the Gulf of Alaska.  Folks will be calling it an early Fall arrival, weather-wise.  We’ll see.

 

The weekend of Sept 10,11 is charting as damp early, warming by Sunday with a break in the ‘fall-like’ pattern to yield sunny, pleasant afternoons going into the Sep 12-16 week.  Early yet, as a few model runs keep the region on the wet fall-side. 

 

Topical Tropical:  a system may develop in the Gulf of Mexico and begin to threaten landfall between Pensacola and the Texas and Louisiana after Labor Day weekend.  An Atlantic system may just wander over the ocean.  A ‘fish storm’.   Both September storms, if they verify.  An interesting fact - thus far in August, no Atlantic tropical storms have developed and been given a name.  It has been 30 years since this has happened.

 

Personal Note:  the annual Walk to End Alzheimer’s is coming September 24.  Your host will again participate on your behalf in Corvallis this year.  Please click on the link below for any donation to this important cause (The WxCafé™️ limits fundraising to this one event only).  We’ll keep you posted as to our total for 2022.  Last year, Patrons contributions placed The Weather Café®️as the top earner for the Mid-Valley, Oregon Chapter.  Let’s go for it again. 

 

 

A few adjustments, as expected, are indicated in the long-range wx outlook.  Is your morn’n beverage ready?

 

Relatively mild temps today & tomorrow the 23rd.  A Heat-up is “on” for Wed and Thu, with the later being the hottest of the week.  Both afternoons in the 90s for western OR; slightly cooler for NW WA.  The final weekend of August 2022 is trending cooler, as the onshore flow picks up again on Fri Aug 26th.  A weak surface Low is charting to sag across SW WA Fri night/Sat morning, ushering in some of the cooler temps of the month, and drizzle along the coast.   Breezy east side, esp SE OR.  A tad warmer on Sunday.

 

The final days of August are charting as HOT, with temps threatening to top triple-digits in a few western OR locations.  The heat cranks up on Tue Aug 30 and may last through the balance of the week.  It will warm considerably across the northern tier of the PNW, as well.

 

Labor Day Weekend: Here’s where model runs vary considerably.  Some solutions bring another Low pressure trough directly over the PNW beginning Fri Sep 2, for showers and breezy, cool holiday temperatures; other solutions extend the heat-up through Sat of the holiday weekend by keeping that Low offshore, tracking to the south, then turning onshore sometime late Sat night, for a mild Sunday & warmer Monday Sep 5.   We’ll peek at this again later this week.

 

The week after Labor Day is trending warm-to-hot, so don’t put the watering cans away just yet.

 

Topical Tropical:  the current quiet period the 2022 hurricane season may be coming to an end.  Atmospheric conditions west of Africa are becoming favorable for major development of the Lows moving off the continent.  It’s possible for a named storm (DANIELLE or EARL) to threaten the eastern seaboard of the USA right after the Labor Day holiday.  Stay tuned, esp if you are traveling to the east coast.

 

Third Cup ☕️☕️☕️ — We likely heading into the 3rd consecutive fall/winter season of a La Niña pattern.  The last time this has happened was 1950.  The May and June 2022 readings were some of the lowest temperature variances on record (going back to 1850).  Water management agencies across the desert SW & CA are concerned that this could portend a continuance of regional droughts.  We’ll present an informal review of this later in September. 

 

 

 

A pleasant cool-down today, with more heat on the way soon.  Mug refilled?  Good.

 

As expected, the onshore flow was turned on rapidly last night, cooling down the region and setting up a pleasant sunny weekend.  There is some precip falling over the Puget Sound on the leading edge of a weak front this Fri morning.  Enjoy the refreshment.

 

The summer ridge of High Pressure will rebuild next week so that by Wed, temps will pop back up into the uncomfortable range.  Thursday is likely to be the hottest day next week (with a triple-digit reading possible in some west side locations). What was looking to be an extended heat wave lasting on through Fri the 26 plus the Aug 27th-28th weekend is now charting as a ‘repeat’ of the current pattern.  Meaning, next Fri could also present a cool-down onshore flow for relief from the heat.  That is the newest trend for the past few model runs.  Let’s go with it for now.

 

As implied, the last weekend of August will be warm, but pleasantly so.  The next HEAT WAVE is looking to develop during the week of Aug 29 - Sep 2.  While tweaking back & forth as to the ‘start' date, all indications are for a substantial heat up as August ends.  Early Sep is also looking quite HOT (95-105).  Temps could ramp up rapidly as early as Mon the 29th, or pause a couple of days until mid-week.  The hot wx could last 5-7 days, although some model solutions limit the heat to 3 or 4 days (normal for such patterns, esp in late summer).  We’ll see.

 

For now, plan on having warm-to-hot summer wx conditions for the next couple of weeks, give or take a mild afternoons (80s) scattered therein.  On the plus side, the humidity should be in a more comfortable range, as compared to the past few days of sweat-city.

 

“A steering committee is four people trying to park a car.”   

 

 

Several dog days of summer on the way.  We can always expect a variation in the weather outlook, so read on for the latest adjustment.

 

This will be a warm-to-hot week around the great PNW.  Wed & Thu remain the hottest days in our forecast this week, although clouds may tap down temps a bit in OR on Thu because of possible mid-level moisture could set off thunderstorms late Wed into Thu.  Keep alert for this, as it is a new twist for the week.  Friday continues to look very pleasant, as Nature will turn on the onshore marine ‘air conditioner’.  

 

The weekend ahead should be pleasant; it will trend a few degrees warmer than Fri.  Puget Sound Patrons could see some drizzle and cloudiness late Sunday, as a weak Low pushes onshore.  Iffy.

 

For Mon - Fri, Aug 22-26, the wx models are now trending much warmer than our last report.  It will start out pleasant on 26th, with each day ticking up the afternoon highs.  What looked to be a mild temperature day to start the Oregon State Fair on the 26th, is now charting to be the beginning of yet another HOT streak for the PNW.  The onshore flow stops completely and the 'oven door’ of the desert SW gets left open - setting up another round of triple-digits in areas across the PNW during the final days of August 2022.

 

East side thunderstorms possible late Sunday the 28 into Monday the 29th.  HEAT is now charting well into the last day of August.  We present this as a possibility, as earlier computer runs suggested milder conditions.  As we have said many times, those older projections frequently end up the most accurate, so it may not get that hot.   Let’s hope so.  

 

In the meantime, enjoy the 'dog days’ of August this week while anticipating the broad cool down next week.  

 

 

 

It’s going to warm up again.  Here are the details.  

 

After a pleasant weekend ahead, temps will begin to edge upward into the 90s next week.  Wed & Thu are likely to be the hottest of the week, with mid-upper 90s for just about all locations inland a bit from the coasts of OR, WA.  Puget Sound?  Yeah, toasty there, as well.  Triple digits possible in the usual hot spots, such as southern OR and, as the week progresses, the Columbia basin.

 

Relief?  By Fri Aug 19, the onshore ‘fan’ will turn back on, but it is modeled to be just strong enough to tap down afternoon highs a bit, west side.  The weekend of Aug 20,21 is trending notably cooler than the previous week, even for eastern locations.  We do not see major thunderstorm action, at this time.  

 

Week of Aug 22-26 is trending a bit warmer for a couple of days, then cooling down into the pleasant range the start up of the Oregon State Fair on the 26th.  No rain on the charts, either by thunderstorm or pacific storm.  The last weekend of August is charting as ’summer-warm’, with temps climbing back into the upper 80s, to low 90s, west side.

 

Overall, we forecast dry & warm-to-hot for the remainder of August.  Let’s call it ’normal’.  Enjoy.