Plenty of dry days ahead, with limited precipitation during a cool down.  Refill & read.

 

Morning fog early this week will be blown away by offshore winds that are charting to start Thu or early Fri.  Columbia Gorge outflow could be strong Fri night, as an east wind howls, at least according to some model solutions.  Temps will warm nicely heading into the coming weekend (mid-to-upper 50s possible west side. 

 

A Cold-hearted Low will drop in from the NW sometime on Valentine’s Day, ushering in rain & showers for several hours.   It will cool down notably Tue & Wed mornings, with the snow levels dropping in the mountains as the precipitation runs out.  This same cold push of air may also increase the winds across much of California by the middle of next week.  Meanwhile, back to dry wx in the PNW, with the likelihood for morning fog to return.  

 

Another cold, wet system is charting to drop in Thu night Feb 17.  Expect a Valentine’s Day repeat.  There is the possibility for a COLD pattern to return to the PNW behind that cold front, however, models have been inconsistent for this scenario.  For now, we’ll say the Feb 17-18 cold front will be followed by a couple chilly weekend days, before another round of cold, wet air will moves in from the NW Mon-Wed Feb 21-23; snow levels could drop into the foothills, or rain/snow mix at the surface, esp the Puget Sound north.   We’ll monitor this, just in case models retro back to a modified Arctic air scenario.

 

Bottom line:  it will remain mostly dry for the next couple of weeks, as the overall the amount of precipitation will remain below average for the month.  

 

 

End of month 1 of 2022.  The weather ahead will be mostly dry, with colder conditions likely later in Feb.  Let’s take a Mug shot.

 

Colder air moving in now, so expect showers over the next day or two, with some bringing rain/snow mixed very near sea level, in places.  Most snowfall will remain above 1,000 ft.  

 

Might be easier to simply list the days that could be damp looking ahead (plus or minus 12 hrs)  

• Tomorrow Feb 1
• Fri Feb 4 from NW OR north
• Maybe a shower or two NW WA on Sunday Feb 6 over Vancouver Is.
• Tue Feb 15 - could be low snow event, esp NW WA. Some solutions bring cold air/moisture in a bit earlier, on Mon, Valentine’s Day.

 

Other than that, expect dry conditions and a few frosty mornings, FOG - esp the week of Feb 7-11.  Overall, the PNW could be turning colder around Valentine’s Day - with another clip of cold Canadian air.  We’ll see.

 

 

 

Overall, weather for the next couple of weeks will be ’steady’.  Read on for clarification.

 

The NE winds have helped clear the air of fog for many locations the past 48 hrs - yielding pleasant late January afternoons in the PNW.  By Saturday night the wind will let up as a weak cold front moves in from the NW.   Vancouver Is. & western WA will be first to get some precip (snow in the mountains, rain at sea level), followed by OR from Eugene north by Monday morning.  The air behind the system will be colder, so snow showers could drop to 1,000 ft.  There will not be much moisture carried in, so total amounts will be nominal, esp for NW OR.  Overnight lows should again drop below freezing Tue & Wed morning, if the east wind subsides in your location.  Windy for southern OR, northern CA.   

 

A strong Fraser Gap outlow has been erased by the models, although winds may pick-up a bit by Tue evening.  Why?  The high pressure ‘Yukon Dome’ is, indeed, following its normal path east of the Rockies, hence the lack of cold ‘outflow’ conditions in this forecast.

 

As next week nears an end, we could get a return to stillness & foggy bottoms, esp western OR.  Drab.  The weekend of Feb 5,6 is now trending DRY and foggy at times; cold in the far eastern portions of the PNW.  A light touch of precip may arrive for southern BC and the far NW corner of WA by Tue Feb 8, with the next decent shot of rainfall due in around Thu Feb 10.  This system will focus primarily on western WA; showers for NW OR.  Some precip could linger on a daily basis over the Puget Sound through the end of that week.  

 

Dry with an onshore breeze the weekend of Feb 12,13.  Trending dry & drab again for the week of Feb 14.  Yes, all of this is quite a change from previous expectations.  So it goes.  Weather will be steady and rather bland.  California is charting dry but breezy at times, throughout the entire forecast period.  Bee keepers will be prepping for the 2022 almond pollination period coming up soon.

 

 

 

Foggy Bottoms will be the rule for much of the next 6 days.  Keep your hands warm on that Mug.

 

A stagnant air pattern - with colder air trapped at the surface, capped by a relatively warmer air layer above - will be in play most of this week.  Areas of afternoon clearing will be spotty - in the usual places.  By Thu Jan 27 a high pressure ridge centered over ID may initiate enough easterly offshore flow to clear out the persistent fog, and help ‘clean the stagnant air’ for a day or two, and yield to a bit more sunshine.  By Sat, the fog may return until a weak system ushers in the first round of change - a return to a more active weather pattern typical for February. 

 

It will turn colder, but beforehand, expect that weak system to arrive - from north to south - sometime on Sunday Jan 30.  Showers possible over western OR & WA, as a cold-core Low pressure trough positions over OR by Monday night.  A cold rain or rain/snow mixed showers will fall, snow showers likely below the passes & maybe the coast range under this 1st cold air trough.  That Low will continue south into CA, setting up a stormy, wet pattern for much of CA, including snow down to rather low elevations for the Golden State.   

 

For the PNW, expect temps to be colder with a push of modified Arctic air out of the Fraser Gap by Wed Groundhog Day.  WINDS will be strong, but not damaging, as the barometric pressure differences are charting to be less severe than our last report.  Still, it will be the coldest pattern since December, so any moisture that arrives over the north Puget Sound could fall as snow, or rain/snow mix.  For this first clip of coldness, the bulk of the Arctic air will travel east of the Rockies.  Cold nights, with icy fog possible for Tue and Wed Feb 2,3.

 

Second round is due to arrive beginning on Fri Feb 4. Admittedly, this round is ‘way out there’ on the charts, so accuracy can be challenged, however, we have been monitoring this pattern on the charts for several days now, which raises the certainty a bit higher.  Anyway, Fri night Feb 4 charts with a modified Arctic air mass dropping into the eastern basins of OR, WA and a notable renewal of outflow from the Fraser Gap in NW WA & BC.  There should be enough moisture around to introduce some snow flurries or rain/snow mixed showers overnight into Sat Feb 5 west side.  After the cold air arrives, it will turn dry and cold, with a chilly wind from the E-to-NE.  Temps will be below freezing at night (possible mid-20s west side).  This dry pattern may hold from Sunday Feb 6 through Wed Feb 9.  There are a couple model solutions bringing more rain, wind and LOTS of mountain snow into the PNW by Tue Feb 8.  We’ll see which scenario is likely in future reports.

 

Bottom line: the PNW will on the edge of a cold outbreak as we head into February.  The coldest portion may remain far to the east, but we see enough model solutions indicating that cold may clip the PNW to warrant mention here.  In the meantime, foggy bottoms will dominate.