Warmth has been delayed; colder wx remains a threat for early Feb.  Let’s take a Mug shot at the outlook.

 

While it will remain dry this weekend, the ‘warm portion’ of the high pressure that we had hoped would build over the PNW has been delayed a few days.  So, expect fog or low clouds to hang around a bit longer, thus tapping down afternoon temperatures.  Offshore air flow could kick-in on Sunday, and if so, the low cloud deck will clear away early.  Patrons in southern OR are going to have those 50+ degree days start first, then, that warmth will slowly work north as next week progresses.  

 

Again, across the entire PNW, it will remain DRY through the weekend and all of next week.  A few model runs are holding off any precipitation until next weekend; others keep us dry until the very last night of January (Sunday).  COLDER weather will be returning in February.

 

Winter Returns.  As the new month -February - begins, a cold pattern is charting to bring back Fraser Gap outflow WIND, low elevation snow (may get to sea level, esp north Puget Sound), heavy rain/showers, snow east of Cascades, and subfreezing temperatures.  The cause will be Arctic Cold air mass pooling over the Yukon and interior BC (1048-1050 mb), then moving south.  A first shot of cold will arrive around Jan 29 or 30th.  For now, models keep us DRY with this cold air mass, although temps will drop fast east of the Cascades.  An east wind will push cold air through the Gaps - Fraser and Columbia.  The second, much colder outbreak - the 1048-1050 mb Dome noted above - arriving by Feb 2.  This one has the potential to drive temperatures down to 10-15 degrees in the Bellingham area (powerful winds again!) with SNOW at the surface probable, if this verifies.  Portland and Willamette Valley could get temps in the low 20s.  Dates are Feb 2-4.  

 

SNOW should be primarily centered over NW WA and maybe around Portland, depending on where a Low develops and moves in from the west.  Too early to peg location for any of The White just yet, other than above 500 - 1,000 ft for western OR, lower as one goes north of Portland.   Some models bring in moisture from the south, threatening snow from roughly Salem north.  Point for now is that a pattern somewhat similar to that of December appears to be possible early in February.  Plan now, just in case.  Travel will be impacted yet again.  The WIND issue for southern BC and north Puget Sound could be serious.  Stay Tuned to ALL of your favorite weather sources.

 

The first weekend in February looks to be either WET at sea level locations, with snow in the hills, or quite a mess, as moisture moves in from the west over the colder air pressing through the Fraser Gap and, to a lesser degree, the Columbia Gorge.  Seattle north could be a nightmare dressed in White. 

 

Note: the Yukon Dome could do its usual, and skirt southeast along the eastern slopes of the Rockies, leaving the PNW alone.  We have seen all of these ‘wild winter’ events charting before, only to find out models were in error.  Still, the models get it right enough to warrant preparations ahead of time.   For newcomers to the PNW: having winter weather repeats in February is not uncommon.

 

 

 

Not a lot of precipitation ahead for the rest of January.  A delightful weekend is coming soon.  Refill time.

 

A very weak system will usher in showers at times for areas mainly north of Chehalis / Olympia later today through Tue.  NW OR may catch a shower here & there, but should miss most of the precipitation.  A system due in later on Wed will carry a bit more moisture, so expect rain & showers overnight Wed Jan 19 into Thu the 20th for both OR & WA; NW WA will be get the most rainfall.  By Friday, high pressure will rebuild & center east of the Cascades, setting up an offshore breeze for the coming weekend.  Nice.

Yes, Spring-like temps are possible again this coming weekend - Jan 22,23 - esp for western OR.  As noted above, an offshore breeze should minimize the foggy mornings and present a sunny blue sky with temps in the upper 50s (maybe even lower 60s in southern OR).  Strong east WINDS across most of California.

 

The offshore air flow component will diminish as the week of Jan 24th get under way, allowing for foggy-bottoms to return in the usual locations (ie: southern Willamette Valley, etc).  A Low may drift south, off the PNW coast, but should not yield much precipitation inland.  By later that week, we are seeing all kinds of solutions on the model charts, so we’ll simply report the trend is for continued dry conditions, with increasing chance for rain returning by the last weekend of January.  Some solutions develop a rather strong storm system moving down along the Alaskan Panhandle/BC coast, which, if it verifies, may return the PNW to a wintery pattern (coastal & Cascade range snow and notably colder temps).

 

Early February continues to look COLDER with snow levels dropping below Cascade passes & into the coast ranges, as well as across the eastern basins.  We’ll have to wait for long-range charts to settle down, but for now, we will caution that another round of wintery weather cannot be ruled out for early February (and, we will be monitoring another Yukon High pressure ridge above 1040 mb).  Keep your Mug handy.

 

 

 

Refill your Mug and read on for the latest weather outlook.  Hint: not much of a change from our last sip.

 

Overall, a dry pattern will prevail under a ridge of High pressure along the west coast.  There will be a few exceptions, so we’ll address those.

This weekend will be dry, except for showers will be over Vancouver Is & far NW WA Sunday, Mon and early Tue.  Morning fog in many locations west of the Cascades.  Hopefully, on Wed Jan 19 an offshore breeze will help push fog away, and provide a couple of sunny mornings to end the week.

 

The weekend of Jan 22,23 may present a weak trough just off the OR coast, so clouds could increase, but no precipitation is expected, other than coastal drizzle.

 

Dry conditions are charting for Mon - Wed Jan 24-26.  Patrons in the Puget Sound region could get some showers on Thu the 27th, as a weak surface disturbance swings by.  That front will also usher in some of the coolest temps since our last winter blast (but NOT super cold, just the lowest in a few weeks).  You probably guessed it - the east winds will pick up, too, as High pressure will drop into the eastern basins.  Portions of California may experience strong easterly winds the weekend of Jan 28,29.

 

February?  Well, early in the month we may begin to enter another cold, wintery pattern, or a least a return to wet Pacific storms, depending on the center position of the Pacific High pressure ridge.  

 

 

Keeping a dry pattern in the forecast.  Refill time.

 

Overall, weather over the next 2 weeks is trending on the dry side.  Some mornings will present fog, as the air, at times, will be still and stagnant.  

 

For this week, moderate-to-heavy rain will fall over the Olympic Range & North Cascades, Canada’s Coastal mountains, and Vancouver Is.  The 'train of rain' will run through Wed in those locations.  Freezing levels will rise, so snowmelt will add to high outflows of rivers & creeks.  Oregon and the lowlands of ID will remain dry.  A short squirt of showers possible in western OR on Thu.  The coming weekend is looking dry and mild for all of the PNW, excluding showers over the northern half of Vancouver Is.

 

The 3rd week of 2022 is trending mostly DRY except for possible showers over northern Vancouver Is and maybe north of Mt Vernon on Tue Jan 18.  Colder air will be moving south out of the Yukon/Alberta region down into the heartland of the US.  Idaho and to the east may pick up some snow.  Note: the west coast should miss out on the winter action, but we have seen a few outlier model solutions building the Pacific High northwestward into Alaska, opening the door for another modified-Arctic blast in the PNW.  We cannot forecast this outlook right now, but mention it because of what happened in December - back then, the 'outlier solutions' ended up verifying quite well.

 

For now, expect dry & relatively mild weather for the week of Jan 17-21.  In fact, we may experience temperatures in western OR teasing the upper 50s and lower 60s. on the 20 & 21st.  However, if that colder air mass descends a few hundred miles farther west, PNW temperatures will chill down later that week as an easterly wind picks-up.  

 

We will project a chilly, east/northeast wind weekend on the 22 & 23 of January.  Snow levels will be low, if we have some moisture around.

 

 

 

Referring broadly to the entire PNW, a drier period is ahead, as well as more seasonal January temperatures.  Let’s take a peek.

 

The windy storm front has now passed, so expect calmer conditions as the day progresses, diminishing rainfall, too.  Snow levels will drop in the mountains to around a 1,000 ft in the northern WA area, above 2,500 ft in OR.  The weekend should be mostly dry for all the PNW, as an offshore wind picks-up, esp in the Columbia River Gorge.

 

Next chance for precip looks to be early next week for NW WA & BC, less so for western OR, as a pattern of moisture trains right over the NW WA & BC area yet again.  Early yet, but this ‘train’ could keep rain in the picture for 2 or 3 days next week for the northern Puget Sound region.  (The dreaded ‘atmospheric river’ - enough already!)  

 

Stray showers possible in NW OR, but for now, it should trend mostly dry next week.  There is a chance for a weak system to bring light rain onshore Wed or Fri next week for OR, but even that is trending as a ‘maybe’.  

 

The weekend of Jan 15,16 looks to be mostly dry, except for the possibility of more rain over Vancouver Island late in the period.  A cold Yukon & Alberta High pressure Dome will form and begin moving south along the eastern side of the Rockies, setting up the coldest winter shot yet for the upper Plains & Great Lakes region.  WINDY.

 

The PNW is charting ‘mixed' for the Jan 17-21 period.  With the cold Canadian air mass moving into heartland, the west coast could remain rather dry, or as a few model runs suggest, turn wet again, esp over western WA.  We’ll monitor, of course.

 

Overall:  the trend is for drier conditions in comparison to last week, with the exception of a possible stretch of moderate rainfall concentrated over the NW corner of WA & southern BC early next week (let’s hope that fails to verify).