Ah, so we have your attention with the tag line today — good. Mug time.

 

Split pattern, in a manner of speaking, for today and Sat, with the rain/showers trailing over western WA, roughly north of Chehalis.  Oregon and the eastern zones will be dry and mild today & Sat.  By late Saturday evening, the stretched-out front offshore will slowly move over OR and northern CA.  Expect Sunday to be on the damp side for OR, WA and BC.  Not much of that moisture is likely to reach the eastern basins.  

 

Monday will turn out mostly dry, as will Tue.  Models vary a bit on the timing & strength of the next system due in sometime overnight Tue or early Wed.  This disturbance may end up being a dud, as the front may simply stretch out and thus weaken so much that only clouds result inland.  We’ll see.  

 

Now the fizzle. The development of a broad low pressure trough over the Gulf of Alaska has been shifting later & later the past week or so.  We still see an extended, stormy pattern eventually making its way into the PNW, but WHEN? 2023?  Seriously, right now, models have fizzled it almost completely away next week, keeping everything basically offshore and moving south over the Pacific, before edging slowly towards the PNW for plenty of wind & rain.  Dare we try a forecast again?  Sure, easy with a good Mug full - -

 

Here goes: after the weak system the middle of next week, expect the weather across the PNW to turn mild & pleasant for fall.  Fog may be in play in the usual places early each day from Thu into the weekend of Oct 23,24.  A ‘break away’ Low may spin showers into southern OR (possible thunderstorms, too) late Fri into Sat Oct 22,23. Then, Sunday night the 24th, the first storm gets close enough to bring on some rain & brisk winds later Mon into Tue, Oct 25,26.  We should also mention, there are solutions that hold off all this action until even later, keeping that weekend mild & dry before the heavy rains & wind arrive the week of Oct 25-29.  Confused yet?  

 

We provided a ‘heads-up’ about the opportunity to witness an Aurora Borealis from right here in the PNW last Monday night, Oct 11.  Well, here are 3 stunning views of the ’Northern Lights’ from around the PNW.  All images used with permission from the photographers: Randy Small (Lynden), Don Feltham (Puget Sound, Edmonds), Clifford Paguio (Crown Point Vista House). Thank you, gentlemen!

 

 

 

Mixed pattern ahead, with the very wet cycle still teasing us on the charts.  Let’s preview the outlook.

 

Generally, dry today with the coldest air of the season aloft.  Therefore, frosty tomorrow morning in many areas on both sides of the Cascades.  Another weak system will bring additional rain/showers later Tue night, along with a bit more SNOW at pass level & higher.  Wed could be cool with sun & showers.  Thu is looking mostly dry before the next weak system moves onshore from the NW sometime Fri (this one may only impact areas north of Portland).  Windy across northern CA today and tomorrow.

 

Weekend ahead, Oct 16,17: expect rain to arrive late Sat into early Sun for most western locations north of Salem.  The upper lever winds (jet stream) are aimed at the PNW in a relatively straight line from west-to-east, centered over WA/BC (what is commonly referred to as a ‘zonal flow flow’).  Therefore, OR is most likely to miss much of the cumulative precipitation over the several days.

 

Starting next Sunday, models now build a high pressure ridge over the western US that will NOT easily yield to the cold air mass trough that will develop over the Gulf of Alaska.  Hence, the series of windy, rainy storms we have projected may not arrive until Thu Oct 21.  The storms will essentially be stretched out north-to-south and thus weakened, as they gradually break through that blocking ridge.  Still, we see notable RAIN and WINDS coming into play in the Oct 21-28 period.  Before hand, expect dry weather Sunday afternoon Oct 17 through Wed Oct 20.

 

Special Note: if the sky does clear in your area tonight, Patrons in northern WA & BC may get the chance to witness AURORAS.  Geomagnetic storms may hit the earth today, setting up this opportunity to see ’northern lights’.  Worth a peek, for sure.

 

 

 

Greetings, Patron.  The wx models have kicked the ‘stormy wet can’ down the road, much like the elected wizards in Washington DC.   At least a fresh morn’n bev keeps us fueled up for the day.  

 

Overall, the very wet, windy pattern, which we have been forecasting here, has been delayed for about week.  Sure, there will be a few storm fronts pass over the next 7 days, but not the classic strong, windy type we have been anticipating.  

 

Today’s system is weak, with a short break early tomorrow.  By Sat evening, another, stronger storm will rapidly move in, bringing rain & wind (rather strong winds Puget Sound, north), and falling temperatures.  Lingering showers should be around on Monday, with a chilly & dry night.  Snow in the mountains at pass levels & higher.  Tuesday morning is likely to be the coldest of the season for many locations, if the sky clears in your area.  Frost possible.  WINDY over northern CA Mon & Tues.

 

As next week progresses, the storm track will shift north, taking the rain/showers at times north of Chehalis on into BC and leaving the bulk of Oregon dry & mild Thu & Fri.  FOG is likely to be a morning issue for OR.  Weather for the weekend of Oct 16,17 is still uncertain, although the trend is now for dry, mild conditions on Sat, increasing clouds/shower over western WA & BC on Sunday.  

 

The Wet Can: the models have delayed that large, cold pool of air over the Gulf of Alaska from developing until sometime the week of Oct 18-22.  Therefore, we will expect the heavy rain & gusty winds to arrive later that week.  When this happens, it will be quite wet over the PNW for several days.  Dare we believe?  We all recall that often the Nature’s actual pattern ends up matching earlier model forecasts. 

 

 

 

OK, so the tag line has your attention.  So, too, does that Mug full of your fav morn’n bev.  

 

Yes, there is a high probability that some ‘wham bam’ weather is on the way to the PNW soon.  Sorry to use such a technical, meteorological term so early on a Monday, but hey, Mug up, you can handle it.  Seriously, the period of Oct 13-20 continues to chart several classic fall storms striking the PNW.  Overall, a broad, Low pressure pattern will center over the Gulf of Alaska, with that battle zone between cold & warm air masses setting off powerful surface storms in the Gulf.  These systems will roll right into BC & the PNW (and, subsequently, across the lower 48 for some wild, news-making fall wx).  What about this week?  Sip on.

 

A system will spin into our area by Tue morning, so expect winds to increase, along with some precipitation.  While not a strong disturbance, it will cool down the region and add another dusting of snow to the higher elevations of the Cascades.  Thu morning is likely to be the coldest one thus far this fall.  Some areas, mainly east side, could be frosty if the sky clears.  Friday will be another mixed day, with a weak system arriving for some showers here and there.  

 

Saturday will be cloudy and with a few showers from roughly Chehalis north; OR, along with the eastern basins, should remain dry.  This coming Sunday, Oct 10 begins the transition into that classic stormy period mentioned above.  A rather cold air mass moves down from the NW, bringing rain/showers, mountain snow (below pass level possible) and the COLDEST TEMPS of the fall season thus far.  

 

Classic Storm Time.  Monday the 11th will be mostly dry, wear-a-coat chilly.  It will continue to dry out & chill down by Tue morning Oct 12.  A FROSTY MORNING is likely, if the sky clears in your area.  Protect patio plants.  California & NV Patrons (yes, we have hundreds) will experience high winds.  Wed the 13th will be WET and blustery in the PNW.  A Low is modeled to move close to the coast, but never make ‘landfall’, so expect dampness and blustery conditions to hold into Fri.  (This system has been modeled, at times, to be rather windy, however, the trend is to keep it offshore and not as ‘deep’ a Low.)  HEAVY RAIN, with notable winds will be the calling card for the system due in overnight Fri the 15th.  

 

The weekend of Oct 16,17 will be STORMY.  Another, very strong storm is charting to arrive sometime late Sat.  This one could develop into a MAJOR WIND EVENT, so stay tuned.  Lots of rain, too!  Right behind the weekend storm will be another one, rapidly moving across the Pacific to slam into the PNW on Monday Oct 18.  Tue & Wed, Oct 19,20 have presented as either very stormy, or as a drying out period.  Too early to pin down that portion of the forecast board just yet.

 

Bottom line: we are not trying to be sensational here, just presenting what looks to be a significant change in the weather pattern for the PNW.  A change that will bring much needed rainfall and shots of mountain snow.  Plan ahead.  Secure items about your property (home or business) that could fly around in strong winds.  Protect frost-sensitive plants.  Fall foliage drop will limit the ability to ’stay ahead’ of plugged gutters, storm drains, etc.  Street & highway management will be kept busy. 

 

We will post Special Statements, as warranted, should one or more of the modeled storms look even more threatening.  The storms may vary as to timing.  Wham Bam weather coming. 

 

 

 

New month.  New forecast.  Fresh Mug full.  

 

Interesting fall wx continues to present on the charts for later this month.  One key aspect will be the potential for powerful WIND events.  We mentioned this last time; now, other PNW wx geeks are taking note.  Before pondering all that, let’s forecast the between now and then.  

 

This weekend should be cool-to-pleasant across the region, although clouds and some showers may hide the sun, at times, the farther north one goes into WA / BC, as a weak front will drape across NW WA / Vancouver Is. later Saturday.  Oregon temps are likely to pop into the lower 70s on Sunday.  

 

Monday looks dry and mild for the entire PNW.  Tue should be a turning point day, as an approaching front - a damp one, if models are correct - rapidly moves onshore over northern Vancouver Is.  Rather breezy over the Puget Sound.  The front will cover western OR by Wed, so expect some precip & much colder temps in the Cascades.  Cooler on Thu before another, stronger system roles into the scene for a wet Fri Oct 8.  This storm may shift into northern CA, NV next weekend.

 

Speaking of the Oct 9,10 weekend - Sat may be a mostly dry day, with fog in the morning, before more CHILLY wet wx arrives on Sunday.  Showers will linger, as will the put-on-a-coat temperatures to get the next week, Oct 11-15 started.  Models have varied, as you would expect, on the actual timing of wet cold fronts moving onshore during that next week on into the weekend of Oct 16-17, but solutions indicating one or two potentially STRONG wind events continue to tease out.  It could remain damp that week, with a strong WIND storm on Wed the 13, as a deep Low develops Tue Oct 12th, followed by another WIND PRODUCER on Saturday the 16th.  Other solutions keep the whole week very WET, with lots of high Cascade snow, with no major wind event(s).  

 

Long-time Patrons understand the importance of being prepared, just in case.  Models are not always ‘wrong’, they often vary on timing for key events.  We will keep close watch on these potential wind events, and post updates, as warranted, should this pattern begin to verify.

 

Bottom line: we are shifting out of the drought pattern that has gripped the PNW since early last Spring, and into a classic, storm-filled Fall pattern - all part of what is now recognized as a “La Niña” influenced cycle of weather.  Will ‘big wind’ play a role?  Keep your Mug handy.