We remain in a very balanced weather pattern.  Sure, we’ll catch a few days of temps in the upper 80s to lower 90s; however, most afternoons should top out in the upper 70s to lower 80s between now and July 28.  

 

The warmest stretch out of the next 14 days will likely be this weekend.  Onshore flow will gradually increase heading into next week, so temps will be tapped down 5-8 degrees.  Morning marine clouds are possible at times next week.  Plenty of sunshine.

 

Another notch down in temperatures is likely after next weekend (July 17,18), as a weak trough will approach from the NW.  Coastal drizzle and delays in the sun’s 'burning off’ the marine cloud deck in western valleys will hold down temps to a bit below average July 19-24.  Warmer weather may arrive again after the 25th.  

 

NO RAIN is foreseen on the long-range charts.  Drat.  

 

Solemn Moment.  While the negative impact on agriculture from the recent historic PNW heat wave is still unfolding, regionally, the latest death toll figures are frankly staggering.  For WA, OR & BC the cumulative number of deaths has reached 680, 116 of those in OR alone (July 8, 2021 figures).  Seriously, what weather event or natural disaster in the PNW has caused that many deaths in the past?  Broken temperature records are one thing, but the huge loss of life is breathtaking.  How can we be better prepared?  

 

 

Weather will be very steady over the next 2 weeks, making it easier for planning summer activities.  Mug up & read on, Patron.

 

The warm temps over the holiday will ease up by a few degrees this week, then pop back to ‘warm' again this coming weekend.  Nothing extreme.  Some areas will have a morning marine cloud deck that will burn off by the afternoon.  Similarly, temperatures east of the Cascades be in the usual warmer-than-the-west-side pattern through the next 14 days.

 

Regionally, the onshore flow will increase notably around Tue or Wed, July 13,14.  Temps will cool down on both sides of the mountains; the marine cloud deck could hold on most of the day, esp north of Olympia.   That onshore flow should increase another notch by Sunday July 18, as a weak Low positions just west of the BC coast.  Cool for a few days.  Morning drizzle along the coast probable.  This could be our first below-normal temperature period of the summer.  

 

Bottom line:  DRY and seasonal for the next 14 days.  Summer in the PNW.

 

You may have already seen this, but it is funny:  “On March 10, 1876, Alexander Graham Bell makes the first phone call ever.  Moments later he was notified that his horse & buggy’s extended warranty had expired."

 

 

The Holiday weekend upon us.  So many celebrating getting out from under masks, along with the arrival of seasonal temperatures.  Call it Normal.  

 

It will warm up a bit during the long holiday weekend, but nothing extreme.  Eastern basins will remain hot, although temps are dropping back into the normal range. Thank goodness.  Overall, the weather for this 4th of July holiday will be some of the best.  No rain.  No extreme heat.  Fire issues will remain critical. 

 

As the month of July get under way, the pattern will remain dry & seasonal.  Chance for warmer weather later next week (upper 80s, lower 90s west side) before a run of several days with morning marine clouds, coastal drizzle and rather cool temps for July in the 13th - 16th period.  Hopefully, as many PNW crops will be harvested. 

 

California will continue on the hot side for the next couple of weeks; Utah & Nevada will in right in the center of the heat oven.  So dry.

 

 

Unimaginable.  Historic.  Generational.  Impactful.  Hard to pin down one word to describe the heat event that has literally cooked the PNW.  This 'Heat Storm' has broken all time records for the highest daytime temps ever recorded, warmest overnight lows ever recorded (for any summer month, let alone June) in many locations.  We’ll try to keep this very brief today; cool & brief.

 

Record heat will continue for another day or two west side, then begin to subside.  Cooler, onshore marine-influence air will pour into western inland locations starting this evening.  Winds could be surprisingly strong and present record-breaking temperature drops (yep, there goes another record).  The region will remain above normal in the temp department for several days, but at least it will cool into the upper 80s - lower 90s west side; east of the Cascades will remain hot.  

 

4th of July:  temps still on the warm-to-hot side.  PLEASE postpone setting off fireworks — this is simply not time to risk FIRES.  Period.  

 

Cooler yet by July 6, beginning over BC, WA then sweeping south into OR.  California will remain quite hot through July 11.  In the PNW, west side morning clouds along with seasonable - maybe even a bit cooler than normal - temperatures are on the charts for the weekend of July 10,11 and on into the following week.  East side temps will fall, too.  

 

If you would like to hear how this will impact agricultural operations, you can listen to an interview with KGMI Bellingham Morning Farm Show and myself, as we deep dive on the impacts to our industry. Listen at the link below:

 

Fry Day June 25

 

The time has come for what will probably be a record breaking heat wave across the entire west coast.  The charts we monitor here hinted that 'something was up' way back on June 14; by last Friday the 18th, your WxCafé (TM) put out the call for preparations for heat issues.  As long-time Patrons know, the wx models are not always ‘crazy’ and do, indeed, provide careful planners a chance to be prepared ahead of time.  Hope you took heed.  

 

Primary Peak Heat period:  Sat through Mon.  Triple digit or top-shelf 90s temps will be in play.  The rarity of a heat event of this magnitude is being well presented by all weather specialists across the PNW.  Heed their notices concerning heat stroke, working outside, pets, and - while it seems SO OBVIOUS - don’t leave any person or pet (or even a plant) inside a vehicle (reports of this taking place happens every heat wave).  

 

Now, a couple features that are so unique to this potential event:  1) overnight lows may actually break records for ‘warmth' (as temps are likely to be in the 68-72 degree range — which is our AVERAGE daytime high temperatures for this time in June);  2) daytime highs may exceed 110 degrees in places on both sides of the Cascades.  Fortunately, the humidity around the region will be low, which will help a tiny bit.  It has been reported that the Seattle area has approx. 34% of homes with air conditioning.  Whoa.  Box fans will be more sought after than gold.

 

How long will this last?  For several days now, models have charted temps to exceed 90 degrees in many west side locations from today through the 4th of July.  The last couple of model runs have hinted Nature’s air conditioner will be fixed, meaning cooler air could begin infiltrating inland areas west of Cascades as early as Tue or Wed next week.  Too early to predict that with confidence, so we'll call for 4 to 5 consecutive days of heat wave temps (90 or above in the shade) starting today, Fry Day.  Some models drop the heat a bit the middle of next week, then pop it back up into the 90s west side during the 4th of July weekend; others keep that onshore flow holding down temps in the 80s.  East of the Cascades, it will remain seriously HOT for the next 7 days.

 

We’ll focus on the upcoming holiday weekend in our next discussion.  That said, long-range charts suggest another rather hot period around July 8-10.  NO rain.  Californians will be suffering through the heat, as well.

 

Agricultural impact:  aside from the challenge of keeping moisture in plant root zones, the excessive heat will cause a drop in production, as well as sun-scold, shrivel & mushiness - all attributes that, for the small fruit industry, lowers the percentage of packs that can go into the high $$ end IQF market (individually quick frozen / poly-bag).  Small fruit growers are going to be impacted.  

 

Stop by again on Monday for another update.  Heed all Nat’l Wx Service watches & warnings — Very few of us have ever experienced such heat - - it’s nothing to joke about.