We usher in the New Year with plenty of rain & feet of mountain snow.  Hot java ready.  Here’s goes —

 

Heavy rain & showers will prevail on/off today.  The current front is draped across the PNW, with cold air support behind it.  There will be a couple additional fronts swinging by as the week progresses, and, as mentioned in our last discussion, the freezer-door may be open again as Fraser Gap outflow could kick back up once or twice this week for local imapct.  SNOW or freezing rain is possible for Patrons in the far NW corner of WA and southern BC, as well as for Patrons in the eastern portions of the Columbia River Gorge.   Overall though, most of The White this week will remain in the mountains, adding to an already excellent snowpack for the summer of 2022.  There are some flooding issues, given the heavy rain and raising freezing level, which combined, rapidly melted low-elevation snow.  Heed Nat’l Wx Service statements.

 

By this coming weekend, the general wx pattern will shift into a drier mode.  High pressure will center east of the Cascades and Low pressure systems will remain well offshore for several days, yielding dry days from Saturday Jan 8 through Wed Jan 19.  With High pressure to the east, expect E-NE breezes to dominate those 7-10 days.  Note: some solutions hint at more OR rain by the 11th; there could also be a system clipping the northern 1/2 of western WA sometime Fri the 14th.  Both scenarios are iffy right now.    The airmass east of the Cascades is not modeled to be ‘Arctic cold’, just seasonally colder than the west side.  Mornings frosts are possible in wind-sheltered areas - typical for January.  Fog at times and afternoon sunshine should be the main feature for about a week. Enjoy.

 

Ponder Point:  After the 19th?  Well, early yet, but we are watching another potential Yukon High Dome developing.  It most likely will drop south, east of the Rockies, to bring a winter slap to the U.S. heartland.  However, the Pacific High may shift again to the NW, as it did in December, opening the door for the Yukon High to clip the PNW for another winter event.  

 

 

 

Gone.  The year and, for folks around western OR, so is most of the snow.  The White sure was delightful.  Will we get more?  Overall pattern shifting to a normal one for January, but there are a few winter-weather threats ahead.  Mug up.

 

Today’s moisture is almost done.  It will refreeze tonight, so be sure you keep that in mind if returning home after New Year’s Eve festivities -  icy roads or sidewalks.  Patrons up in NW WA & BC, (and those above 1,000 ft) have plenty of winter issues still at hand.  While the Fraser Wind will ebb & flow, cold outflows are not completely behind us yet (below).  It should be mostly dry and chilly on the 1st day of Twenty-Twenty-Two.

 

The next very wet system is moving down the panhandle of Alaska & coast of BC for arrival in the PNW before sunrise Sunday, Jan 2 (from north to south).  The “New Year" storm will have impact. It will bring moderate-to-heavy rain to most locations, but we will stick our proverbial Mug out and forecast that surface - or 550 ft and above - SNOW and/or Freezing rain will be possible in locations from Portland north into southern BC.  Wet, “heavy” big-flake snow, if you get some.  Patrons in the Columbia River Gorge area are likely to get a lot of snow, freezing rain before transition to rain (if any at all).  Sunday night will be stormy.  ->> The morning commute on Monday could be crazy.  HEED Nat’l Wx Service alerts.  After that storm front passes, there may be enough cold air 'draw in behind’ to set off more snow or snow/rain mix at the surface, or close to it, esp for Patrons north of Salem.  This is possible into Tue Jan 4.

 

A ‘warm’ front moves in overnight Tue, with rain for western OR, a dusting of snow or snow/rain mix in Bellingham/Abbotsford area before sunrise Wed.  The scene will be set.  A stronger front arrives overnight Wed, ushering in moderate rain, Columbia River Gorge frozen precip issues, and - if the Fraser Outflow kicks in just a little - snow and/or freezing rain for Bellingham north, at least for a few hours.  Please note: the ‘just in’ model run from GFS indicates that the Wed night arrival, on into Thu morning, could start as SNOW and/of Freezing rain from Portland (and east) up to Canada.  We like to see several runs showing similar outlooks, but for now, there could be enough cold air from the east drawn into western locations for that frozen precip issue to verify.

 

It will likely be on/off rain for all of the western areas of the PNW from late Thu into early Saturday, Jan 6-8.   The rest of that weekend should be DRY & chilly, with temps dipping below freezing just about everywhere Sunday morning the 9th.

 

An offshore, NE-to-E, wind will dominate the weather for the week of Jan 10-14.  Temps will top above freezing during the day; below freezing at night in wind sheltered areas.  Yes, it looks DRY until late Fri the 14th.  Good time to take down outdoor decorations, as temps should gradually warm as that week progresses.  Daylight hours are slowly getting longer.  

 

The weekend of Jan 15,16 is trending dry, with offshore breezes.  Some model scenarios bring a one day rain to western WA on Sat.  Not a bad January weekend in the great PNW.

 

 

 

 

More four letter words on the way.  Snow. Cold. Wind. Rain.  Mug refills, too.  Ready?  Lots of detail to sip through.

 

Plenty of beautiful snowscapes this holiday weekend.  We received 4” here in Albany area; others had more of The White.  The Fraser Arctic Outflow has been brutal, with wind chills below zero, snow drifts reported as high as 6 feet in areas north of Bellingham.  Cold temps will continue to drop even lower as the week progresses, esp for Oregon, as that modified Arctic air seeps south.  More —

 

Snow.  A system is rapidly moving down the BC coast, returning light snow to the region again.  Most of the snowfall tonight & Tue will be over Oregon & portions of SW WA.  A couple of inches are possible; higher amounts likely south of Salem.  A repeat is possible starting over NW WA / Vancouver BC, spreading south through Thu, with wider area of steady snow likely; the Puget Sound has a real chance to get hammered with a dose of The White.  This system may bring a southerly ’tongue’ of warmer air aloft, so freezing level briefly rise, mainly over portions of western OR, hence less of a major snow threat.  Still, your WxCafe expects most areas will receive more snow, at times into Fri.  

 

New Year’s Day could usher in a dusting of snow over western WA, north of Portland.  Messy mix of snow, snow/rain mix, or freezing rain for large areas of the PNW as first weekend of 2022 progresses.  It’s early to forecast this, but the storm charting for Sunday & Monday Jan 2,3 could be a real tough one, with all kinds of travel issues.  Lastly, more snow possible next week & again (long-view right now) around the 8th for NW WA, all by the 9th and 10th.   Winter.

 

Cold.  Coldest periods out of the next 10 days looks to be middle of this week, Wed & Thu Jan 5,6 next week, and Sun-Wed, Jan 9-12.  Any daytime thaw will quickly refreeze.  Snow on top of a sheet of ice makes for dangerous transport, by car or foot.  Don’t space out on this.

 

Wind.  The Fraser Outflow event will subside a bit over the next couple of days, then restart, although to a lesser degree.  We see renewed Outflows on/off between now & Jan 13.  Each will draw cold, interior Canadian air into the NW corner of WA & BC.  Similarly for the Columbia River Gorge - expect east wind to pick up this week, next weekend and again by Jan 11 or 12th.  

 

Rain.  Yes, we still see normal PNW rains returning, which could be quite heavy at times, later in our forecast period.  Even then, if the cold air returns, snow will be mixed in at times, as well.  Too early to pin down, but overall plenty of “precipitation” will reach the ground as snow or rain over the next 2 weeks.  We may hear about Atmospheric Rivers, too.

 

Please pardon the excess use of numbers & dates presented here.  Confusing on first read.  Bottom line - there’s a lot of winter weather on the charts for the PNW as 2021 ends and the New Year begins.  Keep safe, and enjoy The White.

 

 

The staff here (me, myself & I) wish you and the family, a wonderful Christmas this year.   The weather details that we presented in the Special Statement published on Dec 22 remain the foundation of this forecast update.  Will try to keep this brief.

 

Rain, wind, showers and plenty of mountain, foothill snow on the way today into this evening.  Several areas are reporting snow, as well.  Christmas Day will present rain showers turning to SNOW showers, at times, starting up north (NW WA, BC) and moving south by midnight across west side locations.  Timing may vary.  

 

Mittens Time.  SNOW showers Sunday & Monday, with a few thrown in on Tue, esp south of Salem.  Modified Arctic Air moving in mid-week will be very dry, but we do see some moisture moving from the Pacific, at times.  STATIC ELECTRICITY will get your attention. News media & regional forecasters are working hard to keep PNW residents informed.  Heed Nat’l Wx Service watches & warnings.

 

COLDER as the week progresses, with record or near record LOW temps possible, depending on snow cover & position of the cold Arctic air east of the Cascades.  The brunt of this Arctic Event will hit NW Washington/BC.  Single digit lows possible in NW WA; 12 - 17 degrees are possible in wind-sheltered, snow cover locations up & down the western valleys of the PNW.  We will have a few DRY CRISP winter afternoons.  Sunglasses needed for snow-glare!  

 

The amount of moisture that could arrive next week is uncertain, but overall, any that does should fall as SNOW in most locations until late week.  We could have a slight warm-up (just above freezing) late next week, but models return additional low-snow cold after New Year’s Day weekend.  Winter will not let go completely as we enter 2022.  

 

California will have plenty of weather issues, from heavy rain, to lower-than-usual snowfall, to subfreezing temps in the north.

 

Bring your Mug here again on Monday.  Merry Time has arrived.

 

-Rufus

 

— ARCTIC OUTBREAK EVENT —  

 

For all residents of the PNW, wx through the entire Christmas & New Year’s holiday period will be SNOWY, COLD and memorable, if model projections verify.  Therefore, this Special Statement is warranted.

 

Washington: broadly speaking, the Arctic Air will arrive during the Christmas weekend - the coldest may be delayed by 24-36 hrs.  NW WA & Vancouver BC areas will get hit first with snow and WIND, as the Fraser Gap Outflow picks up during the weekend.  Fraser Gap WIND will be powerful and likely to cause some power outages.  WIND chills will be dangerous for exposed skin.  Most of the moisture will push farther south into OR, but enough will be around for a few inches of snow to accumulate by Monday.  Western WA in general will receive snow, with temps dropping into the low teens (or lower in wind sheltered areas) by the middle of next week.   Sub-zero temps east of the Cascades are probable.

 

Oregon: colder air will be a bit slower to arrive (per usual in these type of patterns), so don’t expect much SNOW until Sunday Dec 26.  A few inches of SNOW will be on the ground by the Monday morning commute.  Snow on Monday could be rather heavy south of Salem.  The coldest period next week will arrive by Wed or Thu, as more moisture streams in, as well.  SNOW will likely be heavier in the southern Willamette Valley through next week (similar to 2008).  Columbia Gorge Outflow increases significantly next week.  Temps, with snow on the ground, are likely to drop below 10 degrees, esp on the 29th & 30th, and again New Year’s morning.  Sub-zero temps east of the Cascades.

 

Prepare for extended sub-freezing temperatures.  Models are trending toward high & low temps remaining below freezing for several days.  Whatever snow that falls will remain in place.  Patrons with hoops/tunnel growing systems need to prepare for snow-weight issues, per past experiences.  When we begin to get out of the winter grip, freezing rain and/or rain will add considerable weight to greenhouse covers.  

 

Currently, the key snow periods are charting for Sunday/Monday Dec 26,27; Tuesday night Dec 28. Thu night & Fri Dec 30,31; Tue Jan 4 - WA only.  Cumulative snow during the entire holiday period could be over 10” for most west side locations.  We have seen several model runs keep the cold air in place through at least Jan 6, with more snow, as well.  However, the trend is for warmer, wet weather to bring the PNW back to normal that week.  We’ll review this later.  

 

In Summary:  a White Christmas is possible for Patrons north of Portland.  Snow is highly likely across all western WA & OR the day after Christmas & next week.  Sub-freezing temperatures for several days, with single digit lows possible west side.  Exiting the Arctic event could mean freezing rain, at times.